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Secondary Severe weather season about to start ?
10-24-2013, 06:13 AM
Post: #1
Exclamation Secondary Severe weather season about to start ?
SPC

Quote: DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2013

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE
EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY/DAY4. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY FROM SE TX EWD INTO SRN
LA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA ON
MONDAY/DAY 5 AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN UNITED
STATES. AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE
SCNTRL STATES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
RETURN NWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY/DAY 6 FROM THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY ALONG THE AXIS OF A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL JET. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT ENEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 7 WHICH WOULD MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM EAST
TX NNEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE CNTRL U.S FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SWRN U.S.
TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS
BUT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR THIS REASON...WILL NOT ADD AN ENHANCED
THREAT AREA ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 10/24/2013

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