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October, 31 2013 - Possible Bite
10-21-2013, 11:10 PM
Post: #1
October, 31 2013 - Possible Bite
Wow - Look at this : Forget the last set up. This is what it looks like. The problem is the low is a little bit south of where I want to see it. Things can still change. Maybe a action packed halloween hopefully.

[Image: 1383654_3449246325789_1963340203_n.jpg]


[Image: 1385665_3449246285788_928444041_n.jpg]


Definatly one to be watched. Will be waiting.
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10-22-2013, 07:03 AM
Post: #2
RE: October, 31 2013 - Possible Bite
It is going to happen +/-3 days of the 31st. Models have been hinting at for a while now. I prefer it a little closer to me though (less gas I have to use that way).

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10-22-2013, 08:44 PM (This post was last modified: 10-22-2013 08:45 PM by wxchaser420.)
Post: #3
RE: October, 31 2013 - Possible Bite
(10-22-2013 07:03 AM)Joe-Nathan Wrote:  It is going to happen +/-3 days of the 31st. Models have been hinting at for a while now. I prefer it a little closer to me though (less gas I have to use that way).
You weren't lying. Looks like it's delayed it big time and completely changed how it was looking. I need something crazy to happen. I don't particularly like this new run. Not for my area. Look's like a completely cut off low right here just kind of hanging out in Central, TX - I'm waiting for some November heat. We haven't had an active November in several years so we're about due for some reckoning.

[Image: 1383601_3453126942802_1222075117_n.jpg]
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10-24-2013, 02:59 PM
Post: #4
RE: October, 31 2013 - Possible Bite
Things officially have gotten real.


This is a frightening screen shot of the 500MB heights and winds. This looks similar to the 12/25/12 Hattiesburg, MS tornado event. At this moment, a major severe weather outbreak looks likely for Halloween. Let's keep the runs looking like this and we're going to be out there in the s***.


[Image: 1378790_1379359082305988_573205161_n.jpg]

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10-25-2013, 07:11 AM
Post: #5
RE: October, 31 2013 - Possible Bite



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10-25-2013, 07:50 AM
Post: #6
RE: October, 31 2013 - Possible Bite
I see the model dance continues with this system. A Friday afternoon/Sat morning system would be better for me b/c I am off on weekends...

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10-26-2013, 11:02 AM
Post: #7
RE: October, 31 2013 - Possible Bite
not looking as good

Quote: DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE/MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 4-5
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND POTENTIALLY INTO DAY 6/THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST. CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS SEEM
POSSIBLE ON MOST /IF NOT ALL/ OF THESE DAYS GIVEN SEASONALLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE VARIABILITY
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH...WHILE
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24 HR...PRECLUDES DELINEATION OF
SPECIFIC 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS. IN GENERAL...THE
00Z ECMWF STILL FEATURES A SLOWER /SUBJECTIVELY PREFERRED/ SOLUTION
AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/MORE POSITIVE-TILT 00Z GFS/UKMET GUIDANCE.

ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SCENARIO IS UNCLEAR
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH.
REGARDLESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTMS ARE MOST PROBABLE
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN OK AND PARTS
OF KS ON DAY 4/THURSDAY.

WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY CONSIDERABLY INCREASES INTO DAY
5/WEDNESDAY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM OK/NORTH TX TO THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHIFT EASTWARD ON DAY 6/THURSDAY...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKLATEX AND
LOWER/MIDDLE VALLEY...POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH VALLEY AND
EVEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

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10-27-2013, 03:46 PM
Post: #8
RE: October, 31 2013 - Possible Bite
Day 5

Quote: Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 27, 2013
Updated: Sun Oct 27 09:12:04 UTC 2013













D4-8
D4
D5
D6
D7
D8









Population
Cities/Towns
CWAs
Interstates
Counties
FEMA Regions












[Image: map_background.gif]






[Image: day5prob.gif]















Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe
weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe
thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.























Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area

D4
66,899
9,485,124
Dallas, TX...Ft. Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...

D5
63,044
4,528,157
Memphis, TN...Jackson, MS...Jackson, TN...Greenville, MS...Meridian, MS...










D4Wed, Oct 30, 2013 - Thu, Oct 31, 2013
D7Sat, Nov 02, 2013 - Sun, Nov 03, 2013


D5Thu, Oct 31, 2013 - Fri, Nov 01, 2013
D8Sun, Nov 03, 2013 - Mon, Nov 04, 2013


D6Fri, Nov 01, 2013 - Sat, Nov 02, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)











Note: A severe weather area
depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for
severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.




PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms
may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or
occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences
in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble
guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.




POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm
area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).








Forecast Discussion






ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270911
SPC AC 270911

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY OF THE WEEK

...DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 4-5
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
INTERCEPT A SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. ABOVE-AVERAGE
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY STILL CONTINUES /FASTER GFS VERSUS SLOWER
ECMWF/...SUCH THAT SPATIAL/SCENARIO VARIABILITY EXISTS AND AREAL
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE RISK AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED.

ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM OK/NORTH TX TO THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY PENDING SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH POTENTIALLY TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT INTO DAY 5/THURSDAY...A SEVERE RISK SHOULD SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. SOME SEVERE
RISK ON DAY 5/THURSDAY COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS
THE OH VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT
MODEST/ DESTABILIZATION MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

..GUYER.. 10/27/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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10-28-2013, 07:03 AM
Post: #9
RE: October, 31 2013 - Possible Bite
Woot
Quote: DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE RISK REMAINS APPARENT ESPECIALLY ON DAY 4/THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
EASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTERCEPT A
SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. WHILE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION IS
AN UNCERTAINTY FACTOR...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE
/OR CERTAIN/ COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS/TN VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. GIVEN A
VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG/
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER NORTH ON DAY 4/THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN...A SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS
TORNADO/ RISK CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY/NEARBY GREAT LAKES. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONGLY FORCED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ROBUST VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT.

INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST UPPER TROUGH-ASSOCIATED ASCENT
SHOULD SPREAD AWAY FROM THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...A
MOIST AIRMASS/VERY STRONG SHEAR COULD ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONGER
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

..GUYER.. 10/28/2013

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10-29-2013, 06:27 AM
Post: #10
RE: October, 31 2013 - Possible Bite
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2013


Quote:Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2013 - 12Z Thu Oct 31 2013

...Snow showers and gusty winds continue to diminish across the Western
U.S....

...Storms with the potential for heavy rains and severe weather expected
to break out across the south central U.S...

...A wintry mix of precipitation possible over the Dakotas and Upper
Midwest...


Another day of scattered rain and snow showers is expected across the
Intermountain West on Tuesday....underneath a deep upper vortex spinning
over the Central Great Basin/Rockies. A lack of moisture supply should
keep totals on the light to moderate side...and conditions should
gradually begin improving across the West as the vortex opens up and
progresses eastward. However...a Pacific system moving onshore will bring
precipitation back into the Northwest by the end of the forecast period.

Across the Nation's midsection...southerly flow ahead of the deep vortex
in the West will continue to bring warm and moist Gulf air over a frontal
boundary stretched through the Ohio Valley...Middle Mississippi
Valley...and Central Plains. Initially...the heaviest precipitation will
stay focused along the boundary...but as the vortex in West edges eastward
and draws increasing amounts of moisture out of the Gulf...an organized
band of showers and thunderstorms should begin lighting up ahead of the
associated cold front emerging out of the Central/Southern Rockies. The
greatest threat for severe weather will be from North Texas into eastern
Kansas. Farther north...a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain will be
possible where the Gulf air will be overrunning an arctic airmass in place
across the Dakotas and Upper Midwest...but precipitation should change to
all rain by Wednesday evening as temperatures steadily rise across the
region.

Gerhardt


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php
[url=http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php][/url]

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