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SVR WX APR 17-18, 2013- SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
04-17-2013, 06:36 AM
Post: #1
SVR WX APR 17-18, 2013- SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

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[Image: day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif]

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Quote: VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND OK
TO EASTERN KS/SOUTHWEST MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROMINENT/NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY FROM THE GREAT BASIN/
ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH PHASED POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS
INCREASINGLY INFLUENCING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE ACROSS
NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX. NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...A
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS OK/NORTHWEST TX
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE NORTHWARD PUSH
AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO LATE PERIOD SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST...
WELL-ABOVE TYPICAL GUIDANCE SPREAD CONTINUES INTO THE DAY 1
PERIOD...ACCENTUATED BY A MUCH MORE NORTHWARD AND SEEMINGLY LESS
LIKELY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF.
AMONG OTHER UNCERTAINTIES...THIS IS A FACTOR FOR ONLY MODEST
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD/MULTI-FACETED SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY INTO
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

INITIALLY...ELEVATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND ADJACENT MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

FARTHER SOUTH...A MORE WIDESPREAD/SURFACE BASED TSTM THREAT WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY IN
GENERAL VICINITY OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE NOT
NECESSARILY LIKELY...THERE MAY BE SOME POSSIBILITY THAT TSTMS
DEVELOP RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TX INTO EASTERN OK AND PERHAPS EVEN THE OZARKS...AND POTENTIALLY
BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNINHIBITED
BOUNDARY LAYER. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT DOES SEEM MORE PROBABLE NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT VICINITY OF DRYLINE/COMPOSITE FRONT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BIT STRONGER HEATING/MASS CONVERGENCE. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK.
ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET TOWARD/AFTER
DARK...POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES ACROSS THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK IN VICINITY
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS OK INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY MIDDLE MS VALLEY
MIDWEST. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS AND
ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST MAINLY THROUGH
THE EVENING IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE FRONT...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TENDENCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE NOCTURNALLY
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. AS SUCH...LARGE HAIL
MAY BECOME THE MOST PROBABLE/MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERN ACROSS THE
REGION.

...TN VALLEY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIURNALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE FORCING
ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL BE MODEST AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR EPISODIC BOUTS OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

..GUYER/MOSIER.. 04/17/2013

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1135Z (6:35AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

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04-17-2013, 06:38 AM
Post: #2
SVR WX APR 17-18, 2013- SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
You are subscribed to SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches for NOAA's National Weather Service.
GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products.
SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

04/17/2013 07:33 AM EDT

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTHERN TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
ILLINOIS.

WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA...MISSOURI...AND KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. FARTHER
SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL MERGE
INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

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04-17-2013, 06:40 AM
Post: #3
SVR WX APR 17-18, 2013- SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
James Spann:

[video=youtube;g52RGiQif3o]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g52RGiQif3o[/video]

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04-17-2013, 06:48 AM (This post was last modified: 04-17-2013 06:49 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #4
SVR WX APR 17-18, 2013- SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
FROM NORMAN, OK:

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Scattered to numerous supercells may develop between 3 and 11 pm today with very large hail up to the size of golf balls and tornadoes as the main hazards. Storms will generally move northeast 40 to 50 mph. The weather pattern continues to be uncertain today which could have an impact on the extent of the severe weather across the area. Please continue to check back for the latest forecast.

[Image: image_full5.jpg]

Severe thunderstorms will continue between 11 pm CDT tonight and 7 am CDT Thursday as a slow moving squall line develops. The main hazards will be large hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches causing localized flooding. Chances for tornadoes and signficant severe weather will decrease during this time frame.

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04-17-2013, 06:53 AM
Post: #5
SVR WX APR 17-18, 2013- SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
PWO MultiMedia UPDATE:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook...171133.mp4

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04-17-2013, 06:59 AM
Post: #6
SVR WX APR 17-18, 2013- SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
GFS PRECIP PANEL:

[Image: gfs_pres_4panel1.gif]

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04-17-2013, 07:01 AM
Post: #7
SVR WX APR 17-18, 2013- SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
NAM PANEL:

[Image: nam_sfc_4panel.gif]

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04-17-2013, 07:06 AM
Post: #8
SVR WX APR 17-18, 2013- SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

Quote:.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCLUDES LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A HOLLIS TO
CHEROKEE OKLAHOMA LINE...AND INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA...
WICHITA FALLS...ENID...PONCA CITY...STILLWATER...ADA...ARDMORE...
AND DURANT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES WOODWARD AND ALVA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SUPERCELLS AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WITH THE LARGEST HAIL AND GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES IS BETWEEN
3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON AND 11 PM CDT TONIGHT IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME BETWEEN 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
AND 7 AM CDT THURSDAY.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH SUPERCELLS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70
MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNLIKELY THROUGH 3 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A WARM LAYER ALOFT.

BETWEEN 3 PM CDT TODAY AND 11 PM CDT TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP NEAR A WARM FRONT OR DRYLINE THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
AND AFFECT LOCATIONS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THESE STORMS WOULD
BE THE MOST DANGEROUS AND PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS TORNADOES.
THESE STORMS MAY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 11 PM CDT...THE CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
STORMS WILL DIMINISH...HOWEVER SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH
AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS MAY OCCUR ALONG A
DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING SQUALL LINE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY APR 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWEST OF A CHEYENNE TO CHEROKEE OKLAHOMA LINE THROUGH 10 AM CDT
THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM A SLOW MOVING SQUALL LINE MAY
CAUSE FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF A CHEROKEE
TO WICHITA FALLS LINE.

A SLEET AND SNOW MIXTURE IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST...
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY AFTER
7 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL...
SOUTHEAST...AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING.

SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
NOON CDT TODAY.

$$

MBS

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04-17-2013, 07:17 AM
Post: #9
SVR WX APR 17-18, 2013- SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
And for you Dryline chasing guys:

San Angelo NWS:
[Image: image_full5.gif]

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop by late this afternoon and evening along a dryline, as it enters the western Big Country. The airmass ahead of the dryline will become very unstable, and severe storms will be possible. The severe weather threats include very large hail (large than golfball size) and damaging winds. With strong vertical wind shear, a tornadic storm will also be possible.

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04-17-2013, 10:21 AM
Post: #10
SVR WX APR 17-18, 2013- SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
I should be in the 15%

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