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4/09/13-4/11/13 first major outbreak of 2013?
04-04-2013, 12:33 PM
Post: #1
4/09/13-4/11/13 first major outbreak of 2013?
mash it !!!

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04-04-2013, 04:16 PM
Post: #2
4/09/13-4/11/13 first major outbreak of 2013?
James Spann's early take on this:

[video=youtube;1OyjpkeSXm4]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OyjpkeSXm4[/video]

dang internet boneheads!

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04-05-2013, 06:48 AM
Post: #3
4/09/13-4/11/13 first major outbreak of 2013?
[Image: day48prob.gif]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT FRI APR 05 2013

Quote:
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

WHILE RICH GULF MOISTURE HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE SWRN PORTION OF
THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST. THE WRN TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL CONUS BY
MID-WEEK AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. BY THIS TIME...SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EWD TOWARDS
THE MS VALLEY. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING
BENEATH A STOUT EML...A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP.

DESPITE AVERAGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH REGARD TO
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES BY D5-6...INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RENDER A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GREATEST DISCRETE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH PRIMARILY
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ON D5 AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE...AN
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE SHOULD FORM AND DEVELOP EWD TOWARDS THE MS
VALLEY WITH PRIMARY RISKS BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ON
D6. PRIOR TO D5...A LOCALIZED BUT ENHANCED RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL/FEW TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST NEAR THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT
INTERSECTION EXPECTED TO BE INVOF NWRN KS ON MON EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 04/05/2013

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04-06-2013, 06:01 PM
Post: #4
4/09/13-4/11/13 first major outbreak of 2013?
[Image: image2.gif]

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04-08-2013, 10:59 AM
Post: #5
4/09/13-4/11/13 first major outbreak of 2013?
DAY THREE:

[Image: day3prob_0730.gif]

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04-09-2013, 06:52 AM
Post: #6
4/09/13-4/11/13 first major outbreak of 2013?
SVR WX TODAY FOLLOWED BY WINTER CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN WICHITA, KS:

[Image: File.png]

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04-10-2013, 06:56 AM
Post: #7
4/09/13-4/11/13 first major outbreak of 2013?
[Image: image_full2.gif]

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04-10-2013, 06:58 AM
Post: #8
4/09/13-4/11/13 first major outbreak of 2013?
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013


[Image: day1otlk_1200.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif]


PHP Code:
VALID 101200Z 111200Z
   
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS
...ARKLATEX...MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS
   
AND MID-ATLANTIC...
   
   ...
ARKLATEX/LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
   
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE
   CNTRL PLAINS TODAY 
AS A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET ON THE ERN SIDE OF
   THE SYSTEM
...MOVES NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN OZARKSAT
   THE SFC
...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS ECNTRL MO AND WRN AR.
   
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
   FRONT FROM WRN MO SSWWD INTO ECNTRL OK
THIS ACTIVITY COULD HAVE A
   HAIL THREAT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
   IN THE MID 60S F ACROSS ERN AR
...SE MO AND SRN IL WHERE MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM COULD INITIATE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF
   INSTABILITY
HOWEVER...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING
...THE MODELS FOCUS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   
AND TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE A LINEAR MCS SHOULD
   ORGANIZE
.
   
   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z/THU NEAR THE MS RIVER FROM ERN AR NWD INTO
   SE MO SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J
/KG WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF
   0
-6 KM SHEARIN ADDITION...WINDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW TO
   MID
-LEVELS WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. FOR THIS
   REASON
...THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO
   PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY
   INCREASING 
AS THE LINE ORGANIZESTHE TORNADO THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO
   BE THE GREATEST FROM ERN AR NNEWD INTO SE MO ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF
   THE LOW
-LEVEL JET WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR 
AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZEDHAIL COULD ALSO
   OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE 
OR WITH
   ANY CELL THAT INITIATE AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
THE
   SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE NIGHT 
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MS
   RIVER DURING THE 06ZZ TO 12Z TIMEFRAME
.
   
   ...
OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE
   OH VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST
   TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE
   LOW ACROSS CNTRL IL
...NRN IND...NRN OH INTO PASOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY
...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM
   THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S F
THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG 
AND TO THE NORTH OF
   THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SWD ACROSS THE
   WARM SECTOR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 21Z AT INDIANAPOLIS AND PITTSBURG
   SHOW SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J
/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO
   45 KT
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE
   
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS THAT CAN
   PERSIST
HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ELEVATED CELLS NORTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY 
OR WITH CELLS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THAT OBTAIN ROTATION.
   
   ..
BROYLES/GARNER.. 04/10/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE
THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME
1156Z (6:56AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 

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04-10-2013, 09:28 AM
Post: #9
4/09/13-4/11/13 first major outbreak of 2013?
no doubt I will be streaming live tomorrow !

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04-10-2013, 01:45 PM
Post: #10
4/09/13-4/11/13 first major outbreak of 2013?
[Image: ww0089_radar.gif]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 89
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

Quote:
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI BOOTHEEL

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 88...

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS AR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE CAP IS WEAKENING PER 18Z LZK/SHV
SOUNDINGS. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT IN SW AR...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM NWD
ALONG THE FRONT...AND POTENTIALLY IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR. MLCAPE
IS ALREADY AOA 2000 J/KG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND BOTH
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE THE TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR
AND MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES. ASSUMING A COUPLE OF
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS CAN PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OFF THE COLD
FRONT...AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


...THOMPSON

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