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30% Risk accross much of Gulf Coast 3/23/13
03-22-2013, 11:07 PM
Post: #1
30% Risk accross much of Gulf Coast 3/23/13
Slight risk area, will it be upgraded to Moderate? We shall see, Dangerous night tornados are very possible. /mellow

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03-23-2013, 07:09 AM
Post: #2
30% Risk accross much of Gulf Coast 3/23/13
Tornado threat is very low and no moderate risk

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[TR]
[TD="class: zz, colspan: 2, align: center"]esoscale Discussion 301[/TD]
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[TD="align: center"] < Previous MD [/TD]
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[TD] [Image: mcd0301.gif] [/TD]
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 231735Z - 231900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE MS/AL GULF COAST AREAS INLAND ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THESE STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INDICATED IN EARLIER FORECASTS. THE CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE WITH STORM COVERAGE AND THUS A WATCH IS LIKELY. DISCUSSION...A STEADY INCREASE IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT SITUATED INLAND FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST FROM THE DELTA REGION OF MS INTO SWRN AL NORTH AND AROUND MOBILE BAY. THIS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT WAS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY 1) THE APPROACH OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM TX TOWARD LA...AND 2) THE DIURNAL INCREASE IN DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE SBCAPE VALUES HAVE NOW CLIMBED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHORT-TERM STORM SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND VIGOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND ...WITH TIME...ORGANIZING INTO BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER LAND AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WEAK TO MODEST IN STRENGTH AND MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH DISCRETE STORMS WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE PRESENTLY AOB 100 M2/S2. NONETHELESS...SOME INCREASE IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED GIVEN A FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. ..CARBIN/HART.. 03/23/2013 [/TD]
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03-23-2013, 12:45 PM
Post: #3
30% Risk accross much of Gulf Coast 3/23/13
...

Quote:[TABLE]
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03-23-2013, 01:00 PM
Post: #4
30% Risk accross much of Gulf Coast 3/23/13
ROLLTIDE Wrote:...


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231735Z - 231900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE MS/AL GULF COAST AREAS INLAND ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THESE STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INDICATED IN EARLIER FORECASTS. THE CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE WITH STORM COVERAGE AND THUS A WATCH IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A STEADY INCREASE IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT SITUATED INLAND FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST FROM THE DELTA REGION OF MS INTO SWRN AL NORTH AND AROUND MOBILE BAY. THIS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT WAS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY 1) THE APPROACH OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM TX TOWARD LA...AND 2) THE DIURNAL INCREASE IN DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE SBCAPE VALUES HAVE NOW CLIMBED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.

SHORT-TERM STORM SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND VIGOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND ...WITH TIME...ORGANIZING INTO BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER LAND AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WEAK TO MODEST IN STRENGTH AND MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH DISCRETE STORMS WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE PRESENTLY AOB 100 M2/S2. NONETHELESS...SOME INCREASE IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED GIVEN A FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SUPERCELL STORMS.


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03-23-2013, 01:08 PM
Post: #5
30% Risk accross much of Gulf Coast 3/23/13
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