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SLIGHT SVR WX RISK FOR ALL OF LA - FEB 21, 2013
02-21-2013, 08:03 AM
Post: #1
SLIGHT SVR WX RISK FOR ALL OF LA - FEB 21, 2013
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

Quote: VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF E TX EWD INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN MS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION CENTER CROSSING ERN NM INTO THE TX S PLAINS...WHILE
CONSOLIDATING INVOF THE TX PANHANDLE. AS THIS BECOMES THE PRIMARY
CIRCULATION CENTER...DEEPENING IS FORECAST WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD -- AND EVENTUALLY TO -- THE MID MO VALLEY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW ACCOMPANYING THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NERN OK AND SHIFT NNEWD TO NRN MO
LATE...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE FARTHER S -- SHIFTING FROM ERN TX
EARLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION INTO THIS EVENING -- REMAINS
MORE TIED TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...E TX ACROSS LA INTO THE SRN HALF OF MS...
A BAND OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ATTM FROM ERN KS/WRN MO SSWWD INTO
CENTRAL TX...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MAINLY S OF THE RED RIVER.
NWD RETURN OF THE MODIFIED TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS
E TX AHEAD OF THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW
LYING FROM NEAR HLR /KILLEEN/ TO CXO /CONROE/. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SHIFTS NEWD...CONTINUED NWD ADVANCE OF THE WARM
SECTOR -- AND ASSOCIATED MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSION OF THE ZONE OF
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY. WITH MARGINAL HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT N OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH
SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL ROTATION SUGGESTS SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL -- ALONG WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

HOWEVER...STORM MODE OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PRIMARILY LINEAR...AND
HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS MODE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THUS -- 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY STILL APPEARS
APPROPRIATE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL N OF THE WARM FRONT
AND HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION.

WITH TIME...EXPECT THE STORMS TO PROGRESS ACROSS LA AND EVENTUALLY
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...WITH THE COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES -- AND STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ENEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS E OF THE MS VALLEY.

..GOSS/BOTHWELL.. 02/21/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1300Z (7:00AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Image: day1otlk_1300.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif]

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02-21-2013, 08:05 AM (This post was last modified: 02-21-2013 02:27 PM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #2
SLIGHT SVR WX RISK FOR ALL OF LA - FEB 21, 2013
MAYBE WILL GET TO TRY OUT THE DUAL POL TODAY:


ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013


Quote:TO: SRH...HGX...SHV...JAN...LIX

FROM: WFO LCH

SUBJECT: KLCH WSR-88D

THE KLCH...LAKE CHARLES...RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE AND IS NOW
OPERATING AS A DUAL-POL RADAR.

[Image: WUNIDS_map?station=LCH&brand=wui&...p;smooth=1]

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02-21-2013, 10:41 AM
Post: #3
SLIGHT SVR WX RISK FOR ALL OF LA - FEB 21, 2013
Are you headed out to chase ?

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02-21-2013, 10:43 AM
Post: #4
SLIGHT SVR WX RISK FOR ALL OF LA - FEB 21, 2013
ROLLTIDE Wrote:Are you headed out to chase ?

I wish. I have a big meeting today for a large project I just landed. But I should be done by the time things start to fire up here. So I might get lost headed back the office after I finish...

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02-21-2013, 11:16 AM
Post: #5
SLIGHT SVR WX RISK FOR ALL OF LA - FEB 21, 2013
Vegas odds are 5-2 that Sibley will use his siren and lightbar today*Rolleyes

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02-21-2013, 11:19 AM
Post: #6
SLIGHT SVR WX RISK FOR ALL OF LA - FEB 21, 2013
ROLLTIDE Wrote:Vegas odds are 5-2 that Sibley will use his siren and lightbar today*Rolleyes

Well he should stay away here b/c we ignore sirens with yellow lights. Plus our locals including state police would pull him over and throw him in jail for impersonating the police.

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02-21-2013, 11:26 AM
Post: #7
SLIGHT SVR WX RISK FOR ALL OF LA - FEB 21, 2013
Joe-Nathan Wrote:Well he should stay away here b/c we ignore sirens with yellow lights. Plus our locals including state police would pull him over and throw him in jail for impersonating the police.

I think that in LA as long as you don't have red or blue lights you are ok

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02-21-2013, 11:27 AM
Post: #8
SLIGHT SVR WX RISK FOR ALL OF LA - FEB 21, 2013
But the siren is the real problem.

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02-21-2013, 11:43 AM
Post: #9
SLIGHT SVR WX RISK FOR ALL OF LA - FEB 21, 2013
Look at Brantley French driving in the left hand lane and not getting over. I hope that he gets ticketed today Smile

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02-21-2013, 11:49 AM
Post: #10
SLIGHT SVR WX RISK FOR ALL OF LA - FEB 21, 2013
Well the left lane is the fast lane.

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