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ARKLATEX WINTER STORM-ICE
01-15-2013, 07:55 AM
Post: #1
ARKLATEX WINTER STORM-ICE
ICING WILL BE THE ISSUE THIS MORNING!!!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013


Quote:...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST
TEXAS...AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT CONTINUES A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR THIS MORNING.

ARZ073-LAZ004>006-012>014-152000-
/O.CON.KSHV.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130115T2200Z/
UNION AR-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EL DORADO...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...MONROE
615 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* EVENT...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH FREEZING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN...AND SOME SLEET...SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL
AROUND DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING MOST OF THE DAY...ALLOWING THE SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ICING WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. IN ADDITION...POWER LINES AND TREES WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT
ADD TO THE DANGER.

&&


[Image: image_full51.jpg]

[Image: image_full52.jpg]

[Image: Plotter.php?lat=32.31117&lon=-93...p;psnwhr=6]

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01-15-2013, 08:00 AM
Post: #2
ARKLATEX WINTER STORM-ICE
FROM YESTERDAY:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
831 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013
Quote:.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0200 PM FREEZING RAIN WINNSBORO 32.16N 91.72W
01/14/2013 M0.20 INCH FRANKLIN LA EMERGENCY MNGR

ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWERLINES.

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01-15-2013, 08:02 AM (This post was last modified: 01-15-2013 08:03 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #3
ARKLATEX WINTER STORM-ICE
THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG MESS:

[Image: prb_24hicez_ge.01_2013011512f024.gif]

[Image: prb_24hicez_50prcntil_2013011512f024.gif]

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01-15-2013, 08:06 AM
Post: #4
ARKLATEX WINTER STORM-ICE
A CoCoRaHS OBS from Shreveport this morning:

Daily Precipitation Report
Station Number: LA-CD-4

Quote: Station Name: Shreveport 5.3 SSE
Observation Date 1/15/2013 7:00 AM
Submitted 1/15/2013 6:45 AM
Total Precip Amount
0.02 inches
Notes
Light freezing rain mixed with sleet, only very slight accumulation occurred on rooftopsand trees
Taken at registered location Yes
Snow Information
New Snow Depth
NA
New Snow Water Equivalent NA
Total Snow Depth NA
Total Snow Water Equivalent NA
Duration Information
Precipitation Began 07:30 AM
Precipitation Ended 13:00 PM
Heavy Precip Began --
Heavy Precip Lasted --
Duration Time Accuracy Very Accurate
Additional Information
Additional Data Recorded No
Flooding --

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01-15-2013, 08:10 AM (This post was last modified: 01-15-2013 08:11 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #5
ARKLATEX WINTER STORM-ICE
SNOW FALL POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY:

[Image: prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013011512f048.gif]

SNOW FALL POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY:

[Image: prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013011512f072.gif]

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01-15-2013, 09:14 AM
Post: #6
ARKLATEX WINTER STORM-ICE
//

Quote:Mesoscale Discussion 35
< Previous MD
MD 35 graphic


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE TX...NRN LA...SRN AR AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE MS DELTA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 151232Z - 151630Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
RATES OF .1 TO .3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH NOW TURNING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATING UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THROUGH THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME.
COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUING RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ABOVE A COLD/STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH OF A STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
LIKELY AS MODEST STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE YIELDS WEAK
CAPE...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THAT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
LIGHTNING /WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/. THOUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN BELOW 700
MB WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AT LEAST A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS AFFECTED BY
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...TO THE NORTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM LONGVIEW
TX THROUGH SHREVEPORT AND MONROE LA...INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA...THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. SIGNIFICANT ICING IS
POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ON VEGETATION...POWER LINES AND ELEVATED ROAD
SURFACES...AS GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM.

..KERR.. 01/15/2013


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32649512 33379385 34029266 33939136 33189093 32629137
32159294 31909420 31939510 32649512

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01-15-2013, 09:16 AM
Post: #7
ARKLATEX WINTER STORM-ICE
This has the potential to knock out power to a lot of people (+/- 2million). So a couple of inches of ice with a coating of snow on top is not good for North LA.

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01-15-2013, 09:33 AM
Post: #8
ARKLATEX WINTER STORM-ICE
not seeing a couple inches of ice with this but the upper level low might be fun to chase Smile

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01-15-2013, 10:46 AM (This post was last modified: 01-15-2013 10:47 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #9
ARKLATEX WINTER STORM-ICE
Not much accum, but it is something.

Difference b/w two models:

NAM @ 18hr:
[Image: NAM_221_2013011512_F18_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png]


GFS @ 18hr:
[Image: GFS_3_2013011512_F18_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png]

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01-15-2013, 10:51 AM
Post: #10
ARKLATEX WINTER STORM-ICE
ARK roads

[Image: map1280.jpg]

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