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2/28/12 ARK severe weather outbreak ?
02-26-2012, 07:40 AM
Post: #1
2/28/12 ARK severe weather outbreak ?
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02-29-2012, 08:06 AM
Post: #2
2/28/12 ARK severe weather outbreak ?
[Image: day1otlk_1300.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

PHP Code:
VALID 291300Z 011200Z
   
   
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN VLY AND SRN
   APPALACHIANS
...
   
   ...
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   FROM THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY 
AND VA/NC...
   
   ...
SYNOPSIS...
   
STRONG NW IA UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE ENE TO CNTRL WI THIS EVE...BEFORE
   SHEARING E TO THE LWR GRT LKS EARLY THU
.  ATTENDANT VORT LOBE
   LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT SQLN
/SUPERCELLS NOW IN THE LWR OH
   VLY SHOULD 
CONTINUE NNE INTO MI AND WEAKEN...WHILE UPSTREAM VORT
   LOBE NOW OVER ERN NEB SWEEPS ESE INTO IND
/KY LATER TODAY...AND OFF
   THE MID ATLANTIC CST THU MORNING
.
   
   
AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IA UPR LOW EXPECTED TO
   ACCELERATE ESE INTO THE LWR OH 
AND TN VLYS LATER TODAY AS UPSTREAM
   VORT LOBE CONTINUES ESEWD
.  FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY NE/SW
   SQLN
/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY OVERNIGHT STORMS...AND THIS LATTER
   FEATURE LIKELY WILL SERVE 
AS THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FOR LOW LVL
   UPLIFT
/TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TODAY.  FARTHER NE...DIFFUSE WARM
   FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE NEWD ACROSS OH
...THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND
   
VA/SRN MD...WITH A SECONDARY SFC WAVE POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY EARLY THU NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
.
   
   ...
LWR MS VLY NEWD THROUGH TN VLY INTO MID OH VLY/CAROLINAS...
   
NE/SE SQLN WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...NOW EXTENDING FROM SRN IND TO
   NRN AR
...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THIS MORNING.  GIVEN
   RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF SQLN 
/ASSOCIATED WITH 50-60 KT
   SWLY LLJ
/...AND STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SE FRINGE OF
   IA UPR LOW 
/500 MB WSW FLOW AOA 70 KTS/...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE
   
FOR MAINTENANCE OF EXISTING SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
   
TORNADOES/DMGG WIND.  
   
   
MORNING SOUNDINGS AT LITTLE ROCK AND NASHVILLE SUGGEST THAT ONSET OF
   DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUPPORT REJUVENATION OF EXISTING SQLN STORMS IN
   KY 
AND NRN TN...AND POSSIBLY NEW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW ALONG
   AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
/WIND SHIFT LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   STORMS
.
   
   
SATELLITE DERIVED /GPS PW DATA...AND OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINTS...
   
SUGGEST THAT DEEPLY MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER
   THE TN VLY
.  COUPLED WITH STRONG TO INTENSE LOW TO MID LVL WIND
   FIELD
...AND THE GRAZING INFLUENCE OF UPSTREAM VORT LOBE THIS
   AFTN
...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF
   SUPERCELLS FROM NRN MS ENEWD TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL
/SRN
   APPALACHIANS
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME LONG-LIVED AND
   
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/...AND
   
SWATHS OF DMGG WIND.
   
   
THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN QUASI-LINEAR MCS LATER THIS
   AFTN 
AND TNGTPART OF THE THIS SYSTEM MAY MOVE/DEVELOP E TO
   VICINITY OF WARM FRONT IN SRN VA
/NC...POSING AN OVERNIGHT SVR RISK
   
/INCLUDING ISOLD TORNADOESIN THAT REGION.  THE OTHER PART OF THE
   MCS MAY TEND TO BACK
-BUILD AND/OR DEVELOP MORE SWD INTO NRN
   AL
/GA...WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
   EARLY THU
.
   
   
FINALLY...N OF THE OH VLY SQLN...APPROACH OF UPSTREAM VORT LOBE AND
   
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS...POSSIBLY SVR...THIS
   AFTN
/EARLY TNGT IN ERN IND AND OH/WRN PA.
   
   ..
CORFIDI/DEAN.. 02/29/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE
THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME
1305Z (7:05AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 

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02-29-2012, 08:08 AM
Post: #3
2/28/12 ARK severe weather outbreak ?
[Image: ww0045_radar.gif]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 45
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012


Quote: THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
WEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 320 AM UNTIL NOON CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 130 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BATESVILLE
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 43...WW 44...

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS IN N CNTRL AR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EWD INTO MOISTENING LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT OVER NE AR/FAR SE
MO AND NW TN THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. BOTH SATELLITE AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK
RELATIVE TO POINTS IMMEDIATELY NORTH. WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB ALSO
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CINH WITH SWD EXTENT IN AR/W
TN...POSSIBLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS. BUT COMBINATION
OF VERY STRONG LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD...INCREASING LOW LVL
MOISTURE...AND LOW LVL CONFLUENCE SUGGEST CONTINUED CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG...AND DMGG WIND WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25050.


...CORFIDI

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02-29-2012, 08:09 AM
Post: #4
2/28/12 ARK severe weather outbreak ?
[Image: ww0046_radar.gif]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 46
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012


Quote: THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 440 AM UNTIL NOON CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 43...WW 44...WW 45...

DISCUSSION...SRN IL/FAR SE MO SQLN WITH EMBEDDED...LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E AT 50 KTS. SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL
AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF SQLN ACROSS CNTRL KY...WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F EXPECTED OVER WW AREA BY
12-15Z. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. BUT PRESENCE
OF EXISTING LONG-LIVED STORMS...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD WAA STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AHEAD OF SQLN SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.


...CORFIDI

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02-29-2012, 08:10 AM
Post: #5
2/28/12 ARK severe weather outbreak ?
TORNADO REPORTS:

Quote:Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1205 UNK NEWBURGH WARRICK IN 37.95 -87.4 TORNADO REPORTED BY STATE TROOPER NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF NEWBURGH. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE CITY PROPER. RESCUE TEAMS ARE RESPONDING. (PAH)
1240 UNK MADISONVILLE HOPKINS KY 37.34 -87.51 TORNADO ON THE GROUND REPORTED AT EXIT 44 ALONG THE PENNYRILE PARKWAY. (PAH)

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02-29-2012, 08:12 AM
Post: #6
2/28/12 ARK severe weather outbreak ?
DAVE TROTTER:

[video]http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=11973&C=20485&O=10414[/video]

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02-29-2012, 08:14 AM
Post: #7
2/28/12 ARK severe weather outbreak ?
BEN MCMILLAN SURVEYING YESTERDAY'S STORM DAMAGE IN KANSAS:

[video]http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=11973&C=20485&O=10210[/video]

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02-29-2012, 08:16 AM
Post: #8
2/28/12 ARK severe weather outbreak ?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
658 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012


Quote:THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 730 AM CST.

* AT 654 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL CITY...AND MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
CENTRAL CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 8731 3744 8724 3743 8709 3737 8709
3734 8713 3734 8710 3738 8708 3737 8704
3732 8698 3727 8697 3723 8691
TIME...MOT...LOC 1258Z 279DEG 43KT 3735 8715

$$

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02-29-2012, 08:17 AM
Post: #9
2/28/12 ARK severe weather outbreak ?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

Quote:THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN OHIO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHWESTERN EDMONSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 745 AM CST...

* AT 704 AM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
IN MUHLENBURG COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT...
KEN WYE AND SIMMONS...
PRENTISS AND ROB ROY...
SELECT AND OAK GROVE...
BANOCK AND ARNOLD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LARGE DAMAGING TORNADO. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 8618 3725 8618 3724 8695 3727 8699
3732 8699 3736 8703 3744 8704
TIME...MOT...LOC 1309Z 266DEG 50KT 3734 8702

$$
JDG

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02-29-2012, 08:25 AM (This post was last modified: 02-29-2012 08:26 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #10
2/28/12 ARK severe weather outbreak ?
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
817 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012


Quote:..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SW BRANDENBURG 37.96N 86.23W
02/29/2012 MEADE KY TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS. SEVERAL LARGE
BRANCHES WERE DOWNED.
0808 AM HAIL CENTERTOWN 37.42N 87.00W
02/29/2012 E1.75 INCH OHIO KY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200123

$$

RL

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