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2/23/12 Deep South Severe Weather Threat
02-21-2012, 10:18 AM
Post: #1
2/23/12 Deep South Severe Weather Threat
..

Quote: ARTCC FEMA Regions
Categorical Day3 0830Z Outlook

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 210830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AND ERN TX INTO A
PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION
OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT...AND
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A STRONG
UPPER JET DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...REACHING THE
SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SWLY LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER
EJECTION OF SRN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT WILL CUTOFF OVER NRN MEXICO
AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE NAM STILL BEING THE SLOWEST
MODEL. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY REACH SRN TX LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE PRIMARY CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
OH VALLEY OR GREAT LAKES WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN STATES.

...SERN STATES...

POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THURSDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

STRENGTHENING SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD
TRANSPORT OF MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S
OVER SRN AND ERN TX INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES TO NEAR 50 OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE PLUME
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT EWD AND OVERTAKE THE WRN EDGE OF
THE MOIST AXIS. MLCAPE IN THIS REGION COULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG. HOWEVER...THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
MUCH OF THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVENING IN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING WAVE AND STRENGTHENING
LLJ. ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITHIN A STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS
LLJ INCREASES TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD.


...OH VALLEY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH NWD EXTENT INTO
THE OH VALLEY WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG LIKELY. FORCING WITHIN
FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROMOTE A LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED...BUT
AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...TX...

A FEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT
INTO ERN AND SRN TX WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IN
THIS REGION WILL BE MORE CAPPED AND COVERAGE OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SRN TX WILL BE MODULATED BY TIMING OF SRN STREAM WAVE. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL.

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02-22-2012, 07:04 AM
Post: #2
2/23/12 Deep South Severe Weather Threat
KLIX HWO:

Quote:.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT
LOUISIANA PARISHES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE RISK...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AND THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON ALREADY
HIGH RIVERS. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL LOCAL
RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

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02-22-2012, 01:49 PM
Post: #3
2/23/12 Deep South Severe Weather Threat
[Image: day2otlk_1730.gif]

[Image: day2probotlk_1730_any.gif]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST WED FEB 22 2012

PHP Code:
VALID 231200Z 241200Z
   
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO 
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE GULF
   STATES
...
   
   ...
SYNOPSIS...
   
MODELS MAY BE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING A STRONG
   MID
-LEVEL JET STREAK NOW DIGGING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST
...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CUT-OFF FROM
   THE STRONGER WESTERLIES
...NEAR THE BAJA SPUR.  IT NOW APPEARS MOST
   PROBABLE THAT AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TURN EAST SOUTHEAST
   OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z THURSDAY
...AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
   SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY
...AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS
   THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
.  IT IS THIS LATTER FEATURE THAT MIGHT
   FINALLY CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE RAPID EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE BAJA
   LOW
...BUT THE LOW STILL MIGHT NOT PROGRESS EAST OF THE GULF OF
   CALIFORNIA INTO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD
.
   
   
DESPITE SOME GREATER CERTAINTY CONCERNING THE PATTERN EVOLUTION
   
...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN.  THE
   MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
/WITH UPPER
   60S
...LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTSCONTINUES TO DEEPEN...BUT
   LOW
-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HAS
   DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY COMPONENT
...AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
   BACKING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS PERIOD
.  A GRADUAL
   NORTHWARD 
RETURN OF MID 50S TO NEAR 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...NOW
   PRESENT ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
...MAY
   OCCUR
...BUT GENERALLY NOT BEFORE CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS
   OVERSPREAD WHAT WILL BECOME THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING
   CYCLONE
.  WITH THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COLD CORE AND FORCING FOR
   
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST
   OF THE WARM SECTOR
...WEAK CAPE AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER
   LIFT SEEM LIKELY TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM
   POTENTIAL FROM WHAT IT COULD BE 
IF A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   WAS ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE MID SOUTH 
AND GULF STATES.  STILL...THE
   PRESENCE OF A SHEARED 
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELD...AREAS
   WITH RATHER LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW
-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND
   
POCKETS OF AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO SOME
   STRONG
/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...
LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO GULF STATES...
   
THE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST
   PROBABLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
...FROM THE NORTHEAST
   ARKANSAS
/MISSOURI BOOTHEEL/WESTERN TENNESSEE REGION INTO THE LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY
.  WITHIN AN AXIS OF STRONGER WARM SECTOR/PRE-COLD
   FRONTAL HEATING
...MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG APPEARS
   POSSIBLE
...AS LIFT INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
   MID
-LEVEL FORCING.  AIDED BY INCREASING FRONTAL FORCING BENEATH
   STRONGLY DIFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW
...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO A
   SQUALL LINE IS POSSIBLE
...AS CONVECTION ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD
   TOWARD THE CENTRAL
/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY
   THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
   QUESTION WITHIN 
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE...ACCOMPANIED BY
   POTENTIAL 
FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR
   
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT 
AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD
   INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
   AREAS
...PERHAPS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THURSDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..
KERR.. 02/22/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT 

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02-23-2012, 08:12 AM
Post: #4
2/23/12 Deep South Severe Weather Threat
[Image: day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif]

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02-23-2012, 10:28 AM
Post: #5
2/23/12 Deep South Severe Weather Threat
Well that is a different look from yesterday.

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02-24-2012, 08:35 AM (This post was last modified: 02-24-2012 08:35 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #6
2/23/12 Deep South Severe Weather Threat
You are subscribed to SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches for NOAA's National Weather Service.
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 24 13:30:02 UTC 2012
02/22/2012 09:36 AM EST

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 24 13:30:02 UTC 2012.
SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook
02/24/2012 08:29 AM EST

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012


Quote:...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
VIRGINIA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VIRGINIA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE ERN GULF COAST
REGION TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST

A BAND OF VERY STRONG JET STREAM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE
NOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL SWEEP EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.

THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL ACCELERATE EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UNUSUALLY WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ALABAMA AND GEORGIA TO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM EAST OF THE FRONT AS
DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER ENHANCES INSTABILITY.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WARMTH AND MOISTURE BENEATH
STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SWATHS OF
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE
Read more

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02-24-2012, 09:52 AM
Post: #7
2/23/12 Deep South Severe Weather Threat
NWS radar data is royally screwed up right now

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02-24-2012, 10:53 AM
Post: #8
2/23/12 Deep South Severe Weather Threat
[Image: ww0035_radar.gif]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 35
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012


Quote: THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 850 AM UNTIL 400
PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
AXIS OF CONFLUENCE AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SE SIDE OF
POTENT...AMPLIFYING IL UPR TROUGH.. WHILE STORMS TO THIS POINT HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SFC-BASED. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD AND ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS/BOWS
WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND SWATHS OF DMGG WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.


...CORFIDI

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02-24-2012, 10:54 AM
Post: #9
2/23/12 Deep South Severe Weather Threat
[Image: ww0036_radar.gif]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 36
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012


Quote: THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
FAR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 920 AM UNTIL 400
PM EST.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF LYNCHBURG
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 35...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING AHEAD ON ACCELERATING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED
INFLOW OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN WRN NC AND S CNTRL
VA...AND INTENSIFYING LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
AMPLIFYING IL UPR TROUGH...SETUP COULD SUPPORT BANDS/SHORT LINES OF
SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR NARROW SWATHS
OF DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26055.


...CORFIDI

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03-20-2012, 09:58 AM
Post: #10
2/23/12 Deep South Severe Weather Threat
I've watched the water vapor loops of this system since early this morning. The convection has really lessened since the system started interacting with the cooler waters of the Gulf. I'm thinking the daytime heating will increase the convection by this evening and the worst of the weather will be from Central Louisiana to the east.

A tornadic radar signature was reported in Houston about one hour ago. Since then the line of storms has subsided in intensity.
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