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Mardi Gras Severe Weather Outbreak 2/18/12-2/21/12
02-17-2012, 10:48 AM
Post: #11
Mardi Gras Severe Weather Outbreak 2/18/12-2/21/12

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[TD="class: rpttext, colspan: 2, align: center"]Updated: Fri Feb 17 06:20:00 UTC 2012 (Print Version)[/TD]
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[TD="class: rpttext, colspan: 2, align: center"]Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table[/TD]
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[TD]Categorical[/TD]
[TD]Probabilistic[/TD]
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[TD] Population[/TD]
[TD] Cities[/TD]
[TD] CWAs[/TD]
[TD] Interstates[/TD]
[TD] Counties[/TD]
[TD] ARTCC[/TD]
[TD] FEMA Regions[/TD]
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[TD] [Image: map_background.gif][Image: day2otlk_0700.gif]
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[TD] Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook

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[TD] Forecast Discussion[/TD]
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SPC AC 170617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SATURDAY. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL TX INTO NERN MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER SERN TX SATURDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES...REACHING AL OR GA LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...GULF COASTAL STATES... OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER THE CNTRL GULF SOUTH OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CYCLONE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INLAND ADVANCE OF THE FRONT INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND SLOW THE NWD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH 300-500 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND DUE PRIMARILY TO NWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS INITIALLY ACROSS SERN TX COASTAL AREA WHERE WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL STATES WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LEWP/BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITHIN THE EXPECTED HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. ..DIAL.. 02/17/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
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02-17-2012, 11:55 AM
Post: #12
Mardi Gras Severe Weather Outbreak 2/18/12-2/21/12
New day 2

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02-18-2012, 07:53 AM
Post: #13
Mardi Gras Severe Weather Outbreak 2/18/12-2/21/12
KLIX Short-range:

Quote:SHORT TERM...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF GENERAL EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AHEAD THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE COASTAL PARISHES AND
COUNTIES. HOW FAR NORTH THIS WARM SECTOR REACHES WILL BE ONE KEY
COMPONENT TO SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT B/C INSTABILITY WILL BE SO
LIMITED WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM. ITS MANY A WIND SHEAR EVENT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE GREATEST THREAT TO BE ALONG THE COAST. SRH AT
NEW ORLEANS COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 600+M2/S2 AS 850JET REALLY GETS
GOING AROUND TO NEAR 50 KTS AT 21Z. THIS COMPARED TO SRH OF 250
M2/S2. SO THERE WILL BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN INTENSITY FROM COASTAL
TO WELL INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS SCENARIO TO MOST LIKELY PLAY
OUT AS CLUSTERS OF CELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH HAIL THE LOWEST POSSIBILITY. BIGGEST DIFFICULTY ATTM
IS TIMING OF THE STORMS. THE BATON ROUGE AREA WILL HAVE THE MOST
LIMITED WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL AS TIMING OF JET IN CONJUNCTURE
WITH WHEN CELLS IMPACTING THE AREA. THINKING IS LATE MORNING TO NEAR
NOON FOR THEM. NEW ORLEANS MORE OF A EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING FOR THE MS COAST.

FINDING A CONSENSUS BETWEEN MESO MODELS...LOCAL AND NATIONAL...NOT
EXACTLY EASY BUT IN GENERAL THE BULK OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA TOWARDS THE MS COAST. IN
THAT SWATH...WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS THE EVENT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT BUT WITH SUCH SATURATED
COLUMN PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL HAVE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

BY 00Z...THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE REACHING AT LEAST TO
NEW ORLEANS AND MOVING EASTWARD RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE CWA
FINISHING UP WITH RAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.

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02-18-2012, 09:44 AM
Post: #14
Mardi Gras Severe Weather Outbreak 2/18/12-2/21/12
IT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER MARSH AND RICE FIELDS, BUT A FEW FARMS ARE IN THE WAY:


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
837 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
Quote:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...MERMENTAU...CROWLEY...
NORTHEASTERN CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES KLONDIKE...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...LAKE ARTHUR...JENNINGS...
NORTHWESTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 900 AM CST

* AT 832 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF
LOWRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JENNINGS AND KLONDIKE BY 845 AM CST...
MERMENTAU...EVANGELINE...MORSE AND RICEVILLE BY 850 AM CST...
EGAN...CROWLEY AND LYONS POINT BY 855 AM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CST
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.



PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3007 9295 3009 9292 3008 9290 3011 9290
3037 9255 3012 9225 2992 9283
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 235DEG 71KT 3005 9280

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02-18-2012, 09:47 AM
Post: #15
Mardi Gras Severe Weather Outbreak 2/18/12-2/21/12
for above warning:

[Image: 5d39f5ed.jpg]

[Image: 7c2b44ff.jpg]

Really nice hook

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02-18-2012, 10:03 AM
Post: #16
Mardi Gras Severe Weather Outbreak 2/18/12-2/21/12
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
857 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012


Quote:.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0750 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 N SULPHUR 30.27N 93.36W
02/18/2012 CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC

POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.

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02-18-2012, 10:06 AM
Post: #17
Mardi Gras Severe Weather Outbreak 2/18/12-2/21/12
are you going to chase it ?

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02-18-2012, 10:21 AM
Post: #18
Mardi Gras Severe Weather Outbreak 2/18/12-2/21/12
[Image: klch_br248.png]

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02-18-2012, 10:50 AM
Post: #19
Mardi Gras Severe Weather Outbreak 2/18/12-2/21/12
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..
Quote:0945 AM TSTM WND GST LAFAYETTE 30.22N 92.03W
02/18/2012 E60 MPH LAFAYETTE LA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ALONG AMBASSADOR
CAFFREY BOULEVARD

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02-18-2012, 10:55 AM
Post: #20
Mardi Gras Severe Weather Outbreak 2/18/12-2/21/12
...
Quote:TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
946 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...KROTZ SPRINGS...ARNAUDVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES BREAUX BRIDGE...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CST

* AT 943 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF KROTZ SPRINGS TO BREAUX
BRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE PELBA...BUTTE LA ROSE AND ATCHAFALAYA NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
BY 955 AM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

"The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball." - Ben Hogan
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