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TROPICAL STORM RINA
10-20-2011, 08:05 AM
Post: #1
TROPICAL STORM RINA
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Quote:[h=2]Tropical Cyclone Development Is Possible In The Southwestern Caribbean By This Weekend[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 20, 2011, 5:52 am

<!-- Post Body Copy -->Satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning showed a frontal boundary that stretched from the central and northern Bahamas southwestward into the northwestern Caribbean. An area of persistent convection is now firing over the western and southwestern Caribbean where wind shear values are running at between 20 and 25 knots. It should be pointed out that the shear values in this area are decreasing and an area of 5 to 10 knots of shear is advecting westward from the eastern Caribbean. Vorticity analysis showed a ball of increasing vorticity just east of Nicaragua. All of these indicators point to the very real possibility of tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean over the next couple of days and both the regional and global model guidance support this possibility.
The latest GFS, Canadian, NAM and UKMET models are all forecasting development in the southwestern Caribbean by Saturday.
The latest GFS model forecast is showing tropical cyclone development in the extreme southwest Caribbean by Saturday and eventually hits Central America by about Monday and Tuesday.
The Canadian model is also forecasting tropical development in the southwest Caribbean by Saturday and forecasts this possible storm to lift northwestward and affect the Cayman Islands on Monday and Tuesday. The Canadian model then forecasts this system to impact the western tip of Cuba by Wednesday of next week and south Florida by next Thursday. It should be pointed out that the Canadian model, for what it’s worth, has been consistently forecasting tropical cyclone development in the southwestern Caribbean since at least last weekend.
The UKMET model is supporting the Canadian model’s forecast of tropical cyclone development in the southwestern Caribbean over the next couple of days and it also forecasts this system to be lifted northward towards the Cayman Islands and western Cuba early next week.
The experimental FIM model is forecasting a tropical cyclone to develop in the southwestern Caribbean by Saturday and the FIM model forecasts this system to lift northward and strengthen by early next week reaching hurricane strength in the northwestern Caribbean right around next Thursday. Ultimately, the FIM model forecasts that this system will come ashore over western Cuba next Friday and impacts the Florida Straits and the northwestern Bahamas as a hurricane next Friday night and next Saturday.
I think given the look of the satellite imagery and real time parameters like shear, shear tendency and vorticity as well as the forecasts from the various model guidance that tropical cyclone development is a very good possibility by this weekend in the southwestern Caribbean. I would put the chances of this happening at around 60 percent. Any forecast track of a tropical system at this point would be very low confidence, however, it seems that there is more agreement between the models of a track that takes any tropical cyclone northwestward towards the Cayman Islands and western Cuba by late next week.
I will be monitoring things in the western and southwestern Caribbean closely over the upcoming days and I will keep you all updated on the latest.
Satellite Imagery:
[Image: avn-l.jpg]
Wind Shear Analysis:
[Image: wg8shrZ.GIF]
Vorticity Analysis:
[Image: wg8vorZ.GIF]
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Friday morning.



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10-20-2011, 12:22 PM
Post: #2
TROPICAL STORM RINA
Two areas showing a 10% chance of development:

[Image: atl_overview.gif]


Quote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE
AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Both are noted in StormW's blog this morning: http://www.hardcoreweather.com/entry.php...0-A.M.-EDT

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10-20-2011, 05:54 PM
Post: #3
TROPICAL STORM RINA
[video=youtube;1aiZYE-8wyM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aiZYE-8wyM[/video]
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10-21-2011, 06:09 AM
Post: #4
TROPICAL STORM RINA
5AM

[Image: atl1.gif]

Quote:A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER.
ALTHOUGH THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER A FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.<!-- Set from archive.pl for LANA crossing 140W --><!-- END OF CONTENT -->

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10-21-2011, 06:10 AM
Post: #5
TROPICAL STORM RINA
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Quote:[h=2]Potential Tropical Troubles In The Caribbean Over The Next Week[/h]Rob Lightbown on October 21, 2011, 6:10 am

<!-- Post Body Copy -->I am keeping close tabs on two areas of potential concern. The first area is an area of low pressure that is located over the southwestern Caribbean. Satellite imagery showed some concentrated areas of convection just east of the coast of Nicaragua. Vorticity in the area remains quite concentrated, centered near 12 North Latitude, 80 West Longitude. Wind shear has decreased since yesterday, as expected, and is currently between 10 and 20 knots. An area of 5 knots or less shear is expected to move over this system within the next 24 hours and environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable right through this weekend.
I expect slow development of this broad area of low pressure this weekend and I still expect it to become a tropical depression either on Sunday or Monday. Where will this potential tropical cyclone track? Currently this system is in an area of very light steering winds and it seems like it will very slowly track south-southwestward over the next day or two. The various model guidance forecasts have different ideas on where this potential system will track; so, let’s take a look:
The GFS model starts to spin up this low pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean during Saturday into Sunday and forecasts it to attain tropical storm strength by Sunday night. After that, the GFS model forecasts this tropical storm to make landfall on the north coast of Honduras on Monday night into Tuesday morning as a strong tropical storm. The GFS model also forecasts the development of a second tropical cyclone in the central Caribbean by about the middle part of next week. This second potential system appears to originate from the deep thunderstorm activity that is now occurring near the coast of Guyana in northeastern South America. The GFS model then forecasts this second system to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday and forecasts it to impact Jamaica and eastern Cuba late next week as a Category 1 hurricane.
The Canadian model slowly develops the low pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean this weekend and forecasts it to strengthen to tropical storm strength during Monday as it lifts northward into the northwestern Caribbean. The Canadian model then forecasts this system to turn to the west and affect the Cayman Islands as a tropical storm on Monday night and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday as a tropical storm.
The UKMET model looks fairly similar to the Canadian model in that it forecasts slow development over the weekend as it pulls northward out of the southwestern Caribbean. As we get into next week, the UKMET model forecasts this potential tropical cyclone to affect the Cayman Islands by Tuesday and western Cuba by Wednesday. The UKMET model also forecasts that barometric pressures will remain low across the entire Caribbean next week potentially supporting the idea of a second tropical cyclone forming later next week in the central and western Caribbean.
The European model is also on board with potential development in the southwestern Caribbean and forecasts this system to start organizing over the weekend and be lifted northward and affect the Cayman Islands and western Cuba once we get into Tuesday and Wednesday. After that, the European model forecasts this system to track northeastward affecting the Florida Straits and south Florida as a hurricane on Thursday and then become absorbed into a large storm system off of the New England coast by next Friday.
So, it is of my opinion that there are two potential scenarios for this tropical system. The first is that it meanders around the southwestern Caribbean over the next few days and gains little latitude. Should this happen, then a ridge of high pressure building over the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico early next week would likely push this potential tropical storm westward into Honduras and Nicaragua by about Tuesday and Wednesday. If this happens, then I foresee this to peak out as a 50 or 60 mph tropical storm, at most. This is the scenario laid out by the GFS model and the experimental FIM model.
The second potential scenario is that the trough of low pressure currently located over the eastern United States may be strong enough to lift this northward over the weekend as forecast by the Canadian, UKMET and NAM models. Should this happen, then it would have a lot more time to strengthen and could impact the Cayman Islands, central and western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula as at least a Category 1 hurricane right around the middle part of next week.
I am leaning towards the second scenario of this system lifting northward and potentially affecting the northwestern Caribbean and potentially south Florida and the Bahamas. With that said, western Caribbean tropical cyclones are notoriously very difficult to forecast and many things may change in the forecast of this potential tropical system over the weekend and into next week; so, stay tuned!
As I mentioned in the model guidance talk, some of the model guidance forecasts are forecasting a second tropical cyclone to possibly develop next week in the central Caribbean; so, my second area of potential concern is a tropical disturbance that is located near the northeastern coast of South America. Satellite imagery this morning showed some very deep convection associated with this disturbance, although vorticity associated with this disturbance is pretty strung out right now and it appears to be mostly connected with an upper level low pressure system located just east of the Lesser Antilles. Wind shear is way too strong to support any type of development anytime soon. So, this second disturbance will be monitored once we get into next week should it start developing in the Caribbean.
Satellite Imagery:
[Image: avn-l.jpg]
[Image: avn-l.jpg]
Wind Shear Analysis:
[Image: wg8shr.GIF]
[Image: wg8shrZ.GIF]
Vorticity Analysis:
[Image: wg8vor.GIF]
[Image: wg8vorZ.GIF]
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Saturday.



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10-21-2011, 07:58 AM
Post: #6
TROPICAL STORM RINA
30%

Quote:[Image: atl1.gif] Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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10-21-2011, 07:59 AM
Post: #7
TROPICAL STORM RINA
[Image: at201196_sat.jpg]

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10-21-2011, 09:33 AM
Post: #8
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[Image: storm_96.gif]

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10-21-2011, 11:43 AM
Post: #9
TROPICAL STORM RINA
[ATTACH=CONFIG]11292[/ATTACH]

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10-21-2011, 11:44 AM
Post: #10
TROPICAL STORM RINA
http://www.hardcoreweather.com/blog.php

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