3/26/11 Deep South Severe Weather Outbreak ?

[ROLLTIDE]

Mike Phelps headed for a tornadic cell

http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages...phelps.php

[Athensman]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN ETOWAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 312 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF MARKTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARKTON...JACKSONVILLE...GLENCOE...SOUTHSIDE...COBB CITY AND
REAVES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

[ROLLTIDE]

....

Quote: The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the gulf coast states this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Tornado (more info) Hail (more info) Wind (more info)

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 261959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL AND WRN
GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...GULF COAST STATES...TN VALLEY AND SC...

SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 20Z ISSUANCE.
THE FIRST CHANGE IS TO EXTEND THE MODERATE RISK SLIGHTLY EWD INTO
WRN GA. THE SECOND IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SWWD ACROSS NRN
LA INTO EAST TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN
INITIATE AND PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NRN LA WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES ARE ALREADY NEAR 3000 J/KG AND INITIATION APPEARS MORE
CERTAIN. EXTENDED THE SIG HAIL PROBABILITY WWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. THE EXPECTED TIME OF INITIATION IN NRN LA AND EAST TX
MAY BE LATER ONCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION
ISOLATED. ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO TRIM THE NWRN EDGE OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN ARK WHERE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER HAS HAMPERED DESTABILIZATION. THE FINAL
CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO EXTEND THE THUNDER-LINE AND LOW-END
PROBABILITIES SWWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 03/26/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
S/WV TROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS EMBEDDED IN FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
EAST ACROSS MS INTO TN VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. FROM THE SURFACE LOW
OVER SERN OK A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS EWD ACROSS
SRN AR AND NRN GULF STATES JUST TO N OF BHM TO NEAR ATL. COLD FRONT
TRAILS SWWD FROM SURFACE LOW ACROSS NWRN INTO SWRN TX.

THE WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM ERN TX TO AL AND
SPREADING EWD INTO SRN GA S OF FRONTAL ZONE IS BECOMING VERY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE E/W FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NRN GULF STATES PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS CENTRAL AL/MS THROUGH HEATING WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF
DISCRETE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS CINH DISSIPATES BY MID AFTERNOON.
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
MDT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG FROM LWR MS VLY TO
CENTRAL AL THIS AFTERNOON.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN AL INTO NRN MS...
WITH 30-40KT LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING TORNADOS AND VERY LARGE
HAIL. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SURFACE BASED INITIATION WILL BE ABLE TO
OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH INCREASES THE THREAT
OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED TORNADOES. THE AREA OF
GREATEST RISK OF THIS OCCURRENCE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MDT
RISK...ALTHOUGH THE GREATER POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND EVEN INTO WRN GA
IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS . THERE IS THE THREAT OF STRONG
TORNADOES WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.

...SRN/ERN AR/NRN LA EWD ACROSS AL/GA AND SC...
FURTHER W THE INITIALLY STRONGER CAP THROUGH THE PROCESS OF HEATING
AND ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
TO ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN AR INTO NRN LA.
WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS FURTHER
E...MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...BRN SHEAR OF 40-50KT ALONG WITH
THE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
IN ADDITION TO THE VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
LIKELY.

OVERNIGHT THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER AL/MS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS GA WITH AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN PARTS OF WRN SC WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONTAL INITIATED ACTIVITY
WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN GA BY
EARLY SUN.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2025Z (3:25PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Athensman]

BMX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Barbour, Bullock, Lee, Macon, Russell [AL] till 4:15 PM CDT

[ROLLTIDE]

[Athensman]

At 03:36 PM NWS BMX has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Bibb & Shelby Counties until 04:15 PM

[Athensman]

[ROLLTIDE]

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/pla...on&uid=140

[Athensman]

At 03:38 PM NWS BMX has issued a Tornado Warning for Calhoun & Cleburne Counties until 04:15 PM

[Athensman]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC COASTAL PLAINS...ECNTRL/SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261938Z - 262115Z

THUNDERSTORMS...LARGELY WHICH ARE LEFT-SPLITS FROM SWRN GA
SUPERCELLS...CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ENE TOWARD THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY. A SMALL DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE
OVER THE COASTAL SRN SC COUNTIES INTO SERN GA AHEAD OF THE STORMS
WHERE MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG EXIST. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR STRONG
STORMS /PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL/ TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS DEEP LAYER FLOW INCREASES.
SHORT TEMPORAL/AREAL EXTENTS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WEATHER WATCH
ISSUANCE...BUT A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ALONG/S OF THE SWD ADVANCING WEDGE FRONT.