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3/26/11 Deep South Severe Weather Outbreak ?
03-25-2011, 01:50 PM
Post: #11
3/26/11 Deep South Severe Weather Outbreak ?
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03-26-2011, 03:39 AM
Post: #12
3/26/11 Deep South Severe Weather Outbreak ?
Mother****ers thought I was bullshittin'

Real mother****ers aint sleep...Especially on that dope...

Im on that supercell coming out of Lee county right now...

Watch that *** in Fulton...
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03-26-2011, 06:36 AM
Post: #13
3/26/11 Deep South Severe Weather Outbreak ?
a little early for supercells but I bet that the fireworks are nice Smile

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03-26-2011, 08:02 AM
Post: #14
3/26/11 Deep South Severe Weather Outbreak ?
...

Quote:
Mar 26, 2011 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 26 12:58:44 UTC 2011 (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
[Image: day1otlk_1300.gif]
[Image: day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif]
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
[Image: day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif]
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
[Image: day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif]
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 261255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY
EWD INTO AL/GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
NATION THROUGH SUN...SOUTH OF NEARLY STATIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
ANCHORED BY UPR HIGH OVER NRN SK/MB. IN THE ZONAL JET...IMPULSE NOW
OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS SHOULD REACH MO BY THIS EVE. THE FEATURE
LIKELY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES E INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
OH VLY EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE...DIFFLUENT NEG TILT TROUGH NOW ALONG
THE W CST SHOULD PROGRESS E INTO THE GRT BASIN/SRN RCKYS BY 12Z SUN.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SUBTROPICAL JET NOW OVER SRN/CNTRL TX MAY
EDGE SLIGHTLY ENE INTO LA AND THE LWR MS VLY.

AT LWR LVLS...LOW NOW OVER SRN OK EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED ESE ALONG
THE RED RVR TODAY BY SPRAWLING SFC HIGH EXTENDING S FROM MB/WRN ONT.
THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE ARKLATEX BY THIS EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING E
OR ENE INTO N GA EARLY SUN. FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW MAY MIX
OR EDGE A BIT NWD ACROSS SRN AR AND PARTS OF MS... AL...AND GA LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT NO WHOLESALE NWD MOVEMENT APPEARS LIKELY. THIS
BOUNDARY...AND PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR TO ITS S AND SE...SHOULD
SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...SRN/ERN AR AND NRN LA EWD INTO AL/GA/SC...
AFOREMENTIONED WARM/STNRY FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
40-50 KT DEEP W TO WNWLY SHEAR TODAY AS SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED
MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH PW UP TO 1.25 INCHES/ DESTABILIZE REGION.
THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SOME SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS...DURING THE
MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVE. STORMS ALSO MAY FORM S OF FRONT...
ESPECIALLY IN AL AND GA...WHERE WSWLY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL IMPINGE ON
SHALLOWER FRONTAL REMNANT OVER REGION.

STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES/EML PLUME AND RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN WRN HALF OF SLIGHT
RISK. AND...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REMAIN WITHIN ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW-LVL SHEAR NEAR BOUNDARY....POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST
FOR TORNADOES.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ATTM REGARDING AREA OF GREATEST LOW-LVL
ASCENT AND HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT.
SATELLITE/MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MODEST. BUT COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
STORMS LATER TODAY. BY EVE...CONVERGENCE ALSO SHOULD INCREASE ALONG
THAT PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL ACCELERATE SE AS A COLD FRONT
IN WAKE OF SFC WAVE. THIS SHOULD FOSTER ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN AR/NRN LA AND MS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE/DEVELOP E INTO GA AND POSSIBLY WRN SC BY EARLY SUN...WITH AT
LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR SVR.

...SE KS/NE OK TO NRN/WRN OZARKS...
SCTD ELEVATED STORMS AND RELATED HAIL POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL
PERSIST/SPREAD E ACROSS THE SE KS/SRN MO/NRN AR REGION TODAY...TIED
TO ASCENT/ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLOW WITH IMPULSE MOVING E FROM THE
CNTRL HI PLNS. MUCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG... 50-60 KT CLOUD-LAYER
SHEAR...AND COOL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THE POTENTIAL SHOULD LESSEN THIS EVE AS
UPR SYSTEM SHEARS E INTO THE OH VLY.

..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 03/26/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

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03-26-2011, 10:33 AM
Post: #15
3/26/11 Deep South Severe Weather Outbreak ?
...

Quote:
Mesoscale Discussion 275
< Previous MD
[Image: mcd0275.gif]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MS...CNTRL/NRN AL

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 261521Z - 261615Z

1630 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADING PARTS OF NE MS
AND CNTRL/NRN AL TO A MODERATE RISK. CATEGORICAL RISK WILL BE
DRIVEN BY 15 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITIES. REFER TO GRAPHIC FOR
DETAILED AREA.

DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN SWODY1 BY 1630 UTC.

..RACY/HALES.. 03/26/2011


ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33908958 34158900 34108689 33238534 32538513 32108543
32398699 33258948 33908958


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03-26-2011, 11:27 AM
Post: #16
3/26/11 Deep South Severe Weather Outbreak ?
...

Quote:
Mar 26, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 26 16:15:44 UTC 2011 (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
[Image: day1otlk_1630.gif]
[Image: day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif]
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
[Image: day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif]
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
[Image: day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif]
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 261612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH AL
AND NORTHEAST MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY
EWD INTO AL/GA/SC...

...SYNOPSIS...
S/WV TROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS EMBEDDED IN FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
EAST ACROSS MS INTO TN VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. FROM THE SURFACE LOW
OVER SERN OK A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS EWD ACROSS
SRN AR AND NRN GULF STATES JUST TO N OF BHM TO NEAR ATL. COLD FRONT
TRAILS SWWD FROM SURFACE LOW ACROSS NWRN INTO SWRN TX.

THE WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM ERN TX TO AL AND
SPREADING EWD INTO SRN GA S OF FRONTAL ZONE IS BECOMING VERY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE E/W FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NRN GULF STATES PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS CENTRAL AL/MS THROUGH HEATING WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL OF
DISCRETE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS CINH DISSIPATES BY MID AFTERNOON.
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
MDT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG FROM LWR MS VLY TO
CENTRAL AL THIS AFTERNOON.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN AL INTO NRN MS...
WITH 30-40KT LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING TORNADOS AND VERY LARGE
HAIL. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SURFACE BASED INITIATION WILL BE ABLE TO
OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH INCREASES THE THREAT
OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED TORNADOES. THE AREA OF
GREATEST RISK OF THIS OCCURRENCE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MDT
RISK...ALTHOUGH THE GREATER POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND EVEN INTO WRN GA
IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS . THERE IS THE THREAT OF STRONG
TORNADOES WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.

...SRN/ERN AR/NRN LA EWD ACROSS AL/GA AND SC...
FURTHER W THE INITIALLY STRONGER CAP THROUGH THE PROCESS OF HEATING
AND ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
TO ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN AR INTO NRN LA.
WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS FURTHER
E...MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...BRN SHEAR OF 40-50KT ALONG WITH
THE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
IN ADDITION TO THE VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
LIKELY.

OVERNIGHT THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER AL/MS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS GA WITH AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN PARTS OF WRN SC WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONTAL INITIATED ACTIVITY
WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN GA BY
EARLY SUN.

..HALES/ROGERS.. 03/26/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1626Z (11:26AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

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03-26-2011, 11:35 AM
Post: #17
3/26/11 Deep South Severe Weather Outbreak ?
....


Quote:
Mesoscale Discussion 276
< Previous MD Next MD >
[Image: mcd0276.gif]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NERN MS...CNTRL/NRN AL...WCNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261625Z - 261800Z

BAND OF CUMULUS OVER CNTRL MS APPEARS TO BE DEEPENING WITHIN A ZONE
OF WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
HEATING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. THIS MAY BE THE START OF AN ACTIVE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY EVOLVE ENE INTO CNTRL/NRN
AL AND WCNTRL GA.

THE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY...THOUGH SPEED
SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG C PER KM AND MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM. AS STORMS APPROACH THE BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN VICINITY OF THE WARM/WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN
AL AND WCNTRL GA...CONCERN IS FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO PRODUCE A
FEW TORNADOES.

ALTHOUGH FIRST SIGNS OF INITIATION ARE LIMITED TO MS...EXPECT THAT
ADDITIONAL DISCRETE STORMS WILL FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN AL AND WCNTRL GA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..RACY.. 03/26/2011



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03-26-2011, 11:56 AM
Post: #18
3/26/11 Deep South Severe Weather Outbreak ?
http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/pla...bb&uid=496

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03-26-2011, 12:20 PM
Post: #19
3/26/11 Deep South Severe Weather Outbreak ?
...

Quote:
< Previous WW
| | | | |
[Image: ww0062_radar.gif] <style type="text/css">td.off { background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(145, 184, 255); }td.on { background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(0, 51, 153); }.wwprb-matrix { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:link { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:visited { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:active { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.wblack:hover { color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:link { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:visited { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:active { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: none; font-family: arial; }a.awhite:hover { color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 8pt; text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial; }.wwprb-verylow { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 249, 153); }.wwprb-low { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 153, 0); }.wwprb-moderate { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 0); }.wwprb-high { font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(255, 0, 255); }
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood High Moderate
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High High
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 62 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LARGE PART OF ALABAMA A LARGE PART OF WESTERN GEORGIA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOULTRIE GEORGIA TO 40 MILES WEST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS AIR MASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THRU THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND S OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE THRU NRN AL INTO CENTRAL GA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. ...HALES [Image: ww0062_radar.gif]