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Heavy Snow threat 2/9/11-2/10/11 AR AL MS TN
02-07-2011, 11:50 AM
Post: #11
Heavy Snow threat 2/9/11-2/10/11 AR AL MS TN
James S

Quote:*WEDNESDAY NIGHT: This is when we have a much better chance of accumulating snow. Hot off the presses is the 12Z RPM snow accumulation chart, valid through 6:00 a.m. Thursday:
[Image: Screen-shot-2011-02-07-at-9.05.12-AM-600x377.png]
This tends to validate the idea of 1-2 inches of snow for much of North Alabama, generally north of I-20, with a dusting down to a line from Livingston to Clanton to Roanoke.
We also note the 12Z NAM is more aggressive, with 2-4 inches for North Alabama (the heaviest axis of snow is north of a line from Fayette to Warrior to Jacksonville…
[Image: Screen-shot-2011-02-07-at-9.51.50-AM-600x547.png]
I will have the first snow accumulation potential graphic up later this afternoon

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02-07-2011, 11:55 AM
Post: #12
Heavy Snow threat 2/9/11-2/10/11 AR AL MS TN
[Image: image7.gif]

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02-07-2011, 12:21 PM
Post: #13
Heavy Snow threat 2/9/11-2/10/11 AR AL MS TN
.....

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02-07-2011, 01:51 PM
Post: #14
Heavy Snow threat 2/9/11-2/10/11 AR AL MS TN
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02-07-2011, 04:20 PM
Post: #15
Heavy Snow threat 2/9/11-2/10/11 AR AL MS TN
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SHREVEPORT:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
317 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011


Quote:DISCUSSION

WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE GOING OUT WITH THIS PACKAGE AND HAD TO
SEGMENT THE PRODUCT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES. THE WATCH BEGINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NE TX...SE OK AND EXTREME SW AR AT
06Z WED AND HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINING PORTIONS OF SW AR AND THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF N LA
BEGINNING AT 12Z WED. THE WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z THU.

CONTINUED TO USE A COMBINATION OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL
CONCERNING THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS BUT STILL
SUPPORTS OUR THINKING OF A BIG WINTER WEATHER EVENT TAKING SHAPE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. 6HR GRIDDED WEATHER FORECAST BEST
REPRESENTS THE CHANGE OVER WHICH WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR WHILE FURTHER NORTH...THE EVENT WILL BE
MAINLY A SNOW EVENT. FOR NOW...WE ARE ADVERTISING 4-6 INCHES
ACROSS ALL OF S AR...THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX AS WELL AS SE OK.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX INTO N LA...WE ARE
ADVERTISING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN HERE AND THERE BUT THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE ANY WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE BRIEF. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS THE PRECIPITATION COOLS THE COLUMN.

THE SETUP IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY BEFORE EJECTING OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 850MG LOW
PRESSURE FOR THIS EVENT MOVES MAINLY WEST TO EAST ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH THE 850MB 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM ALMOST PARALLELING THE
CORRIDOR WITH FLUCTUATIONS NORTH AND SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY. JUST HOW THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE COOLS OR WARMS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE IN ALL SNOW VS A MIXTURE SO
THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED AS IT GETS CLOSER IN
TIME. ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE 850MB 0 DEGREE
ISOTHERM DROPPING WELL SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS ACROSS MOST
AREAS EXPECT PERHAPS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE EVENT SHOULD END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WHERE A SNOW PACK WOULD RESULT IN COLDER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOOKING AT A PRETTY GOOD WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A DRY
FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION FWD...LZK. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW..

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02-07-2011, 04:46 PM
Post: #16
Heavy Snow threat 2/9/11-2/10/11 AR AL MS TN
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02-07-2011, 04:47 PM
Post: #17
Heavy Snow threat 2/9/11-2/10/11 AR AL MS TN
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02-07-2011, 04:53 PM
Post: #18
Heavy Snow threat 2/9/11-2/10/11 AR AL MS TN
.... James is downplaying things for now


Quote: [Image: avw.php?zoneid=1&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NU...n=a4a1784d]
A Few Flurries Possible Tonight…

James Spann | 3:16 pm February 7, 2011 | Comments (6)
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.
COLD AND ACTIVE: Much colder air is flowing into Alabama at mid-afternoon. Muscle Shoals and Haleyville have dropped into the upper 30s, and that colder air will spread over all of Alabama tonight. Support from the upper trough could squeeze out a few snow flurries this evening, perhaps as far south as Birmingham and Anniston, but they won’t amount to much. Everybody should be down in the mid 20s by daybreak tomorrow.
CALM DAY TOMORROW: Cool and dry… a partly sunny sky with a high in the low to mid 40s.
SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Not much overall thinking on the snow event for North Alabama Wednesday night. Below is the first snow accumulation potential outlook…
[Image: snow.001-001-600x450.jpg]
Here is the situation…
*Snow should spread into Northwest Alabama Wednesday evening, becoming widespread by 9:00.
*The best chance of accumulating snow will be along and north of a line from Millport to Birmingham to Anniston. North of that line we are projecting average amounts of 1-2 inches, with pockets of 2-4 inch amounts across higher terrain of Northeast Alabama. Very much in line with the 12Z NAM.
*Snow flakes are possible as far south as Livingston, Brent, Clanton, Rockford, and Roanoke, but accumulation there is not likely.
*We will drop into the mid 20s Thursday morning as the snow ends (it should be over by 7:00 a.m.), so some icy travel is likely where there is accumulation early Thursday. We should warm into the upper 30s by late morning, so unless it is colder than we think, this should not be an all-day kind of issue with travel concerns.
*The coldest morning will be Friday morning, when the sky should be clear. Where snow is on the ground, lows in the teens are likely. Where there is no snow, lows will be in the 20-24 degree range.
WEEKEND WARM-UP: We are still looking at a wonderful weekend… after a low in the 20s early Saturday, we will warm to near 50 Saturday afternoon, followed by a high in the 57-60 degree range on Sunday. Dry air should mean a good supply of sunshine both days.
LONG RANGE: No doubt there will be cold snaps during the latter half of February, but with no big upper ridge over the western part of North America tapping Arctic air, it still looks like the second half of February will be milder than the first half. We can see that light at the end of this long, cold winter tunnel.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST…

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02-07-2011, 04:54 PM
Post: #19
Heavy Snow threat 2/9/11-2/10/11 AR AL MS TN
[video=youtube;WqkZlhmaoHc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqkZlhmaoHc&feature=player_embedded[/video]

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02-07-2011, 05:06 PM
Post: #20
Heavy Snow threat 2/9/11-2/10/11 AR AL MS TN
ROLLTIDE Wrote:.... James is downplaying things for now

You ain't kidding.

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