Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11

[ROLLTIDE]

[Joe-Nathan]

FROM SHREVEPORT NWS:

Quote:...THE NEXT PART OF THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE INFLUX OF WINTER
WEATHER INTO THE FORECAST. HAVE BASED MY FCST GRIDS PRIMARILY ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH SUPPORTS A QUICK TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AS THE SOUNDING COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 1 INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IF
NECESSARY. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING A SHARP TEMPERATURE FALL OF SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE TRANSITION
TO WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE SUPPORT. ALONG WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
COME VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING MAKING TEMPERATURES FEEL EVEN COLDER. WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET ON TUESDAY WITH WIND CHILL
ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
HIGHLIGHT ALL THESE POSSIBILITIES IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK BUT WILL NOT POST ANY WATCHES OR ADVISORIES ATTM WITH THE
BRUNT OF THIS WEATHER NOT OCCURRING UNTIL OUR 3RD PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND IF SO...THIS WOULD BE POSTED LATER TODAY.

1040MB HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A VERY COLD REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HARD FREEZE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS LIKELY...AT LEAST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR.

FINALLY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS OUT OF
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY AND MOVES INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE SNOW POPS FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THUS...HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS
AS WELL...

[Joe-Nathan]

GFS FOR THURS NIGHT/FRI MORNING FEB 4th:

[ROLLTIDE]

...

Quote:Saturday Wintry Mischief?

Bill Murray | 2:24 pm January 30, 2011 | Comments (26)
The morning run of the GFS introduced a new idea: a very cold trough sweeping across Mississippi and Alabama on Saturday, accompanied by the potential for a wintry mix.
This is the output for the GFS snow depth product by Saturday night.

Here is the culprit:

This is the precipitation and 540 thickness line, a useful rule of thumb for the rain/snow line (the blue dotted line).

This idea is voodoo for now, but something that we will be watching

[ROLLTIDE]

[Xanadu]

oh no! I thought all of that mess was going to stay north of us. We will see, I suppose. Thanks for the heads up!

[dkmac]

NWS forecast for Whitfield County, GA

Friday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain and snow. Lows in the upper 20s.

But that's 4 days away, and things can change...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...4&map.y=27

[HoumaLA_WXguy]

From wwltv mets.. (NOLA)

Quote:For the end of the week, as colder air remains in place, we'll have to watch a Gulf Low that looks slated to develop and bring in moisture again for Thursday and Friday. Right now, it's looking like mainly just a cold rain, but if cold air moves farther south than currently forecast, things could be a bit more interesting in terms of precipitation type. This is still a long way off and there's plenty of time to watch things develop, but its looking like a close-call at this point.

[Joe-Nathan]

SHREVEPORT NWS:

Quote:Today: Rain showers before noon, then rain showers, possibly mixed with snow and sleet between noon and 3pm, then a chance of snow and sleet after 3pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Temperature falling to around 36 by 5pm. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of snow before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Wind chill values as low as 11. Northwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

[kobayashi]

It's not just the south...