Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11

[Joe-Nathan]

N.O. NWS - POSS ICE STORM FOR THURS_FRI:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
443 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

PHP Code:

LONG TERM  
  
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN  
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...NEAR TO NORTH OF  
BATON ROUGE...INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL  
MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL  
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVES  
EAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND ADJACENT OLD MEXICO. THIS IS A CLASSIC  
PATTERN THAT WILL TRY TO PULL GULF MOISTURE BACK OVER AN INITIALLY  
DRY AND COLD DOME THAT WILL MOISTEN AND LIKELY BE NEAR TO JUST  
BELOW FREEZING DUE TO THE WET-BULB EFFECT. ANY LIGHT SLEET OR  
FREEZING RAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN  
BY MID MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OR  
HIGHER.  
  
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS INLAND NEAR BTR-MCB...THE LOW/MID LEVELS  
OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH DRY AND COLD AIR FOR A MIX  
OF RAIN AND SLEET BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARMING IN THE  
ELEVATED LAYER SHOULD START TO COMPLETELY MELT SNOW THAT FALLS  
THURSDAY EVENING...SO THE GROUND TEMPERATURE WILL BE LEFT TO  
DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.  
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER TODAY TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST OF  
FREEZING RAIN LOOKING AT MODELS SOUNDINGS FROM THE  
NAM...GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM WHICH ALL SHOW RAIN FALLING INTO  
SURFACE AIR THAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS  
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH  
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS CLOSER TO INTERSTATES 12 AND 59 SHOULD  
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY RAIN  
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF AMOUNTS OF  
AT LEAST .25 INCH WITH SOME RUNS SHOWING IN EXCESS OVER .50 INCH.  
IF THE FAR INLAND AREAS SEE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN...THIS COULD END  
UP BEING A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM. IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO  
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT THAT MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT/  
WEDNESDAY.  
  
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH  
COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO SUPPORT A  
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FRIDAY  
EVENING BEFORE ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS.  
  
A COLD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. THE MODELS THEN  
DIFFER ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WITH THE GFS LOOKING AT A STRONGER AND COLDER SYSTEM MOVING  
INTO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE  
WITH THE WARMER DRIER ECMWF AT THIS TIME. 22/TD 


[Joe-Nathan]

HELLO MOBILE:

A LOT OF THIS IS GOING TO BE ICE!!!

[dkmac]

S. St. Tammany here. Bring it on! (as long as it doesn't break the power lines)

[BAMAMAMA1964]

skip mobile we have a service to go too.. at 12 noon. maybe it will be over by that time..crossing fingers!!

[ROLLTIDE]

So now I have to drive to Texas to cover the snow . When will Mobile get some snow ?

[ROLLTIDE]

Mobile

Quote:WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS REAL INTERESTING. AS THE
MAIN CLOSED LOW OVER YELLOWSTONE MEANDERS SOUTHWARD TO OVER NW
MEX...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES GET SENT NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF. THIS
WILL HELP TO INITIATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS OVER THE COLD
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL HELP TO PUSH THE COLDER AIR NORTHWARD...BUT
THE QUESTION FOR THE FORECAST IS HOW FAST. LOOKING AT MODELS
SOUNDINGS...SREF WINTER WX PROBS...AND MODEL THICKNESS DERIVED WX
TYPES...A SMALL CHANCE EXISTS THAT FZRA/IP WILL MIX IN INITIALLY
TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AM TAKING A
IT`S GOING TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE...BARELY...BUT IT WON`T TAKE MUCH
TO GET A WINTER MIX TO MIX IN. A GOOD THING IS THAT WITH THIS BEING
ON THE INITIAL PART OF THE PRECIP...IF IT DOES HAPPEN...AMOUNTS OF
IP/FZRA WILL BE LIGHT...AND AS THE THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERLY PUSH OF AIR OVERFLOWING THE
COLD AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY WARM TEMPS UP ENOUGH TO CUT THE CHANCE OF
WINTER PRECIP OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY....AND AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA IN THE WEEKEND...TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY
TRAILING PRECIP IS BEING ADVERTISED AS BEING LIQUID.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK FOR MOS
TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...THOUGH AM NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHEN A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA...THEN ENDS AS IT PUSHES A FRONT OVER THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS ADVERTISING THIS ENDING AS
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT...A LOT CAN CHANGE.

&&

[FrenchQuarterGuy]

Well - I don't want to get my hopes up! But the mets are all talking about the real possibility of wintry precip on the South Shore ( New Orleans ).
With each new model run, things are definitely looking up. Especially if those cold temps in Houston head our way - AND the Low expected to form forms further S and E.

[Joe-Nathan]

LOCAL TV10 (CBS)METS:
By David Paul, February 1, 2011, 7:42 pm o'clock

Quote:We dealt with a surge of rain Tuesday as the potent cold front passed; now we’re dealing with a blast of Arctic air. Next up is the threat for some sleet and freezing rain, with the potential for snow not too far away. The map above depicts my prognosis for the Thursday night/Friday morning period, based on the latest computer model guidance available Tuesday. Temperatures aloft appear to be warm enough for rain across a good chunk of Acadiana, but lower levels will be supportive of those raindrops freezing and becoming sleet, or freezing on contact with the surface as temperatures drop to freezing or below. The colder air will be found across the northern and western parts of the area, thus the higher chances for wintry precipitation there. Our southeastern parishes may just see rain. With much time before this system (the energy of which is spinning over the Four Corners region of the Southwest) moves into South Louisiana, we’ll have to keep monitoring the latest model data. Of course, expect continuous updates on TV-10.

[ROLLTIDE]

Houston we have a problem....

Quote:NEW MODEL DATA ARRIVING THIS EVENING HAS SOUNDINGS THAT STILL SUPPORT A
FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SOME SPOTS COULD EASILY RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...AND
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE ANY KIND OF BANDING
DEVELOPS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST UNTIL
ALL 00Z DATA ARRIVES.

[ROLLTIDE]