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Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11
02-01-2011, 08:09 AM
Post: #11
Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11
THAT IS ONE HELL OF A TEMP DROP:

[Image: wxStationGraphAll?day=1&year=201...showrain=1]

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02-01-2011, 09:12 AM
Post: #12
Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11
Jackson MS

Quote:MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT...THINGS WILL GET A
LITTLE TRICKIER. PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE CWA BY
THIS POINT. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH...ALONG HWY 82 AND JUST ON
EITHER SIDE OF IT...SHOULD MOSTLY SEE ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...OR SLEET AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR MELTING OF ICE ALOFT. THERE IS NOT A REALLY WARM
TONGUE OF WARMER AIR...BUT THE LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IS QUITE LARGE AND MOST ICE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT. CLOSER TO THE
SFC...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A LAYER FOR SOME REFREEZING INTO SLEET.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND ANY LIQUID
THAT DOES NOT REFREEZE ALOFT WILL LIKELY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
FREEZE ON THE SFC. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF WINTER PRECIP AT THIS
TIME IS SOUTH OF I-20. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THIS
REGION...BUT THIS IS ALSO WHERE SOME OF THE TRICKIER SFC FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES LIE...SO IT WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREE DIFFERENCES DURING THE EVENT TO DETERMINE WHAT SORT OF
WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS WINTRY MIX SHOULD LAST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM SOME. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL NOW SHIFT MORE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. BY
FRIDAY EVENING...THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED OFF AS THE SFC
LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING OVER THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND SOME OF THE RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. LINGERING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
COMBINE WITH THIS COLDER AIR AND GIVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.

ALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.
THIS WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A SFC HIGH SLIDING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
BRINGING SOME WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

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02-01-2011, 09:13 AM
Post: #13
Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11
kobayashi Wrote:It's not just the south...
[Image: conus_warnings_2-1-2011.png?w=640&h=447]

Then feel free to start a new thread and keep it properly updated. I will not have the time since I will be on the road Smile

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02-01-2011, 09:34 AM
Post: #14
Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
819 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011


Quote:
DISCUSSION
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO RAISE POPS AND SHOW FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 13
DEGREES.

BRAZZELL

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02-01-2011, 12:29 PM
Post: #15
Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1035 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

PHP Code:
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..
REMARKS..  
  
1034 AM     FREEZING RAIN    BATTIEST                34.40N 94.93W   
02
/01/2011  E0.25 INCH       MCCURTAIN          OK   CO-OP OBSERVER    
  
            CO
-OP OBSERVER REPORTS GLAZING OF 1/4 INCH ICE ON   
            SURFACES 
AND A DUSTING OF SLEET ON TOP

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02-01-2011, 01:01 PM
Post: #16
Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11
MAN I AM LIKING THE 72HR GFS:

[Image: GFS_3_2011020112_F72_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png]

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02-01-2011, 01:02 PM
Post: #17
Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11
AND I AM LOVING THE 75HR NAM:

[Image: NAM_221_2011020112_F75_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png]

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02-01-2011, 01:11 PM
Post: #18
Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1028 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

PHP Code:
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..
REMARKS..  
  
1020 AM     FREEZING RAIN    HARRISON                36.24N 93.12W   
02
/01/2011  E0.50 INCH       BOONE              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER    
  
            OBSERVER REPORTED .50 TO .75 INCHES OF ICE ON TREES 
AND   
            
CARSROADS HAVE STARTED TO BECOME ICE COVERED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011


PHP Code:
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..
REMARKS..  
  
1152 AM     SNOW             1 E OWASSO              36.27N 95.84W   
02
/01/2011  M13.0 INCH       TULSA              OK   STORM CHASER      
  
            AT 86TH 
AND 145TH

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02-01-2011, 04:00 PM
Post: #19
Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11
Houston is even getting in on the Snow/Ice action:

Quote:An upper level disturbance is expected to move over the area Friday and support frozen precipitation. Given the cold temperatures in place... most areas could have accumulating snow mainly inland. There may be a mix of rain/sleet/snow along the coast. Please monitor forecasts on this developing winter weather event.
[Image: image_full3.gif]

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02-01-2011, 05:19 PM
Post: #20
Deep South Ice Storm this week 2/3/11-2/04/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CST TUE FEB 1 2011


PHP Code:
...BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON
...  
   
DISCUSSION  
   
SHORT TERM  
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL 
CONTINUE TO PERSIST   
INTO TONIGHT
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST...MAINLY   
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT
...EVEN WITH THE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED   
THROUGH THE NIGHT
...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHTTEMPERATURES   
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE   
EXCEPTION OF THE MORGAN CITY AREA
SO HARD FREEZE WARNINGS WERE   
EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY
IN ADDITION WIND CHILLS TOMORROW MORNING   
AROUND 10 DEGREES
...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALSO ISSUED.    
  
SOME SUN TOMORROW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO   
LOWER 40S
.  
  
THINGS BEGIN TO GET INTERESTING THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAYFIRST   
OFF NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THURSDAY AT THIS TIME
RAIN CHANCES WILL   
BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY 
AND IF RAIN STARTS EARLY   
ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
...THIS WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING   
RAIN 
AND SLEETBULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE   
AFTERNOON WHEN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FORECAST THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE   
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO SUPPORT MELTING TO MAJORITY RAIN   
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
.   
  
MOST OF MY CONCERN IS IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME   
WHEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGIONIN   
ADDITION PROFILES 
CONTINUE TO COOL SUPPORT A CHANGE TO SNOW AND   
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREAACROSS THE   
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
...SOUNDING PROFILES ARE   
SUPPORTING A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN
...SLEET IN THE MORNING   
BECOMING MOSTLY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN   
A LITTLE MORE COOL 
AND WET WITH EACH RUNTHIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH   
THE GFS 
AND ECMWFTHE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE HIGHEST QPF   
PLACEMENT
.  THIS IS AN EVOLVING SITUATION...SO STAY TUNED TO THE   
LATEST FORECASTS 
FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES.   
  
ANOTHER SHOT AT FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START OUT IN  
THE 20S WITH THE START OF A WARM
-UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER 50STHE WARM-UP WILL  
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH THE FIRST MORNING THAT WILL BE ABOVE  
FREEZING
... TEMPERATURES THAT AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S  
TO NEAR THE 60 DEGREE MARK


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