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1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event
01-24-2011, 09:01 AM
Post: #31
1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event
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01-24-2011, 09:02 AM
Post: #32
1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event
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01-24-2011, 09:03 AM
Post: #33
1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event
BMX


Quote:NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
542 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH AT LEAST ONE POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOR TODAY...A SHORT
WAVE TROF CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PUSH EASTWARD
TODAY AND BRING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO ALABAMA. THERE IS SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROF...BUT IT IS DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD...DUE TO DRIER AIR AIR MASS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. SMALL POPS WILL BE LEFT IN FOR WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. THE TROF WILL PASS TO THE
EAST OF ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF TROF.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE VERY NICE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STATES WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. RAIN WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON IN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE RAIN SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT IN FAST
MOVING SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAIN SHOULD BE ENTERING SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON TUESDAY. RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA
COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER SOUTH
ALABAMA WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE HIGHEST. IT IS BECOMING
MORE APPARENT THAT THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THE FIRST WAVE ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT PASSES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER MENTIONED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...BUT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL REMAIN ON THE
STABLE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW...AND LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE SECOND WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE SURFACE LOW MOVES RIGHT
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE ROBUST LIFT WITH THIS UPPER
LOW...WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NEAR LOW CENTER. FORCING WITHIN
THIS COLD POCKET ALOFT CAN PRODUCE DYNAMICALLY COOLING OF THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST TWO THOUSAND FEET
OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LOCAL FORECASTING SNOW TECHNIQUES
PREDICT MOSTLY RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE... BUT IT IS HARD TO
IGNORE MODEL GENERATED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST ONE-HALF INCH
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20...WITH THE NAM MODEL SHOWING UP TO 4
INCHES ACROSS MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES. IF THE COLUMN CAN COOL
SUFFICIENTLY...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SNOWFALL RATES COULD
DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN ONE HOUR. THE FORECAST WILL STILL FOLLOW A
MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MENTIONED IN LOCAL HAZARD PRODUCTS...JUST NOT GET INTO ANY
SPECIFIC AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT IS
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ON BACK SIDE
OF UPPER LOW AS FORCING WEAKENS AND TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS.

58/ROSE

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01-24-2011, 09:04 AM
Post: #34
1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event
Jan

Quote:WHEN WE GET INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST COMMENCES. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THERE DOES
LOOK TO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY). LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS COMING IN HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR...AND ALSO INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH SNOW MAY FALL IN
SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR IN MS TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATION. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WAS MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWED
IN GENERATING OUR SPECIFIC FORECAST SINCE IT HAS SHOWN THE BEST
CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
DOES NOT SHOW AN OUTLYING SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS EUROPEAN MODEL STILL SHOWS LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAINLY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT THE
EXPECTED INTENSE AND VERY COLD UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKING OVERHEAD
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING INFLUENCE FROM ALOFT TO STILL
ALLOW A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO GET TO THE SURFACE NORTH OF I-20.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN ANY
SNOW FALLS IN THESE AREAS WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING A HUGE IMPACT ON
ROADS WITH MOST (IF ANY) ACCUMULATIONS PROBABLY JUST CONFINED TO
GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WILL OFFER THE CAVEAT THAT IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT A BAND OF HEAVY AND WET
SNOW WILL FALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES. IF SUCH WERE TO
OCCUR THEN POWERLINES AND TREES COULD REACT NEGATIVELY. WILL UPDATE
THE HWO ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT ANY RAIN OR SNOW TO BE MOVING OUT BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. LOWS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 30
TO 35 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. /BB/

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01-24-2011, 09:05 AM
Post: #35
1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event
[Image: day2_psnow_gt_04.gif]

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01-24-2011, 09:06 AM
Post: #36
1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event
6TongueM Tuesday
[Image: nam_pcp_042s.gif]

Midnight Tuesday Night...Notice in NW Miss:
[Image: nam_pcp_048s.gif]

6:AM Wednesday Morning...Notice moving in to Alabama:
[Image: nam_pcp_054s.gif]

Noon Wednesday...
[Image: nam_pcp_060s.gif]

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01-24-2011, 09:07 AM
Post: #37
1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event
SREF

[Image: nam_ref_048s.gif]
[Image: nam_ref_054s.gif]
[Image: nam_ref_060s.gif]

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01-24-2011, 09:08 AM
Post: #38
1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event
GFS

[Image: gfs_pcp_042s.gif]
[Image: gfs_pcp_048s.gif]
[Image: gfs_pcp_054s.gif]
[Image: gfs_pcp_060s.gif]

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01-24-2011, 09:09 AM
Post: #39
1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event
BMX HWO

[Image: hwo.gif]

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01-24-2011, 09:10 AM
Post: #40
1/25/11-1/26/11 Deep South Upper Level Low event
Latest NAM seems to have more moisture Smile

[Image: nam_pcp_018l.gif]

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