Thread Closed 
DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11
01-06-2011, 03:10 PM
Post: #31
DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11
Tim C


Quote: [Image: avw.php?zoneid=1&cb=INSERT_RANDOM_NU...n=a4a1784d]
Quick wintry update – 1050 am

Dr. Tim Coleman | 10:57 am January 6, 2011 | Comments (26)
…Large uncertainty with possible winter storm Sunday and Monday…
…Ice storm possible…
[Image: 500-mb.gif]
(500 mb height, wind, and vorticity)
[Image: sfc-pres-and-temp.gif]
Cold, dry air will start moving into Alabama at low levels Saturday afternoon, as north winds pick up. Temperatures by Sunday morning will likely be in the mid to upper 20s in central Alabama. At the same time, an upper-level storm will move out of the SW US into Texas by Sunday morning.
As this upper-level storm approaches the Gulf Coast, a low pressure area will form somewhere in Louisiana or off the Louisiana Coast Sunday, depending on how far south the cold air pushes Saturday night and Sunday morning. This low pressure area will then move along or near the Gulf Coast Sunday night and Monday.
Precipitation is not a question with this system. It will begin to move into west Alabama Sunday, and overspread the state by Sunday night. As a matter of fact, the precipitation may be heavy, with 0.5 to 1 inch of water equivalent falling. The key to what type of precipitation falls will be the thermal profiles in the atmosphere Sunday night and Monday. Generally, the farther south the low tracks, the colder the air is in central Alabama, since we don’t get any southerly flow ahead of it if it stays near or off the coast.
For snow to form aloft, the temperature in the precipitation formation region usually needs to be 23 degrees F or colder, ideally around 14 F. Clouds are made of water droplets even at temperatures in the teens aloft, and most of these don’t start to freeze until they drop to near 20 degrees. However, once a snowflake forms, any cloud water droplets it comes in contact with will freeze onto it, making it bigger. Bottom line…if it is too warm aloft, even if it is a little below freezing, precip can fall to the ground as rain.
The worst case scenario is that southerly flow at mid-levels, or 4,000 to 10,000 feet) brings in enough warm air there to keep temperatures too warm for snow formation. Then, the precipitation would fall mainly as rain. But, if there is enough cold, dry air at the surface such that the cold raindrops evaporating as they fall cool surface temperatures to freezing, causing freezing rain (rain that freezes on contact), we could have some ice accumulation. Right now, this scenario is what is shown by the latest GFS model run.
Another possibility is that there is just enough cold air aloft for the precipitation to fall as snow. This is more likely in north Alabama (HSV), but could occur in BHM too. In this case, 2-3 inches of snow could fall Sunday night.
The third possibility is that the low moves north of the coast, warm air flows in from the Gulf, and we just get a cold rain, with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. (Even though lows tend to like to stay near fronts and areas of large temperature changes over short distances like the coast, this inland low was shown by last night’s European model, the one that handled the snow on Christmas so well.)
My gut feeling right now (and I’m not Gibbs on NCIS nor Jack Bauer on 24, so I’m not always right) is that snow is likely from Cullman north. In central Alabama, freezing rain and snow, with ice accumulations Sunday afternoon, are possible. I’d give it a 33/33/33 shot (snow/ice/rain). Farther south, there could be a little freezing rain in Montgomery if the cold temperatures push far enough south, but that seems unlikely.
As is usually the case in Alabama, the potential winter storm system coming in on Sunday and Monday is very complicated, and to jump out and make a bold prediction 3 days out would be inappropriate. Also, don’t hang on the subtle changes in every model run, either. The models are solving very complex equations involving many variables, and some flip-flops are going to occur in what they predict. We have to sit back and take all this in and give it our best shot, accentuating the uncertainties in the forecast.

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
01-06-2011, 03:13 PM
Post: #32
DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11
[Image: SnowstormCallJan6_ValidJan9_11_2011.jpg]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
01-06-2011, 03:15 PM
Post: #33
DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11
[Image: image2.gif]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
01-06-2011, 03:32 PM
Post: #34
DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11
...

Quote: New Event for Benton County and Calhoun County and Chickasaw County and Coahoma County and DeSoto County and Itawamba County and Lee County and Lafayette County and Marshall County and Monroe County and Quitman County and Tallahatchie County and Tate County and Tippah County and Tishomingo County and Tunica County and Union County and Yalobusha County
SPS valid from Jan 6 2:05 PM to Jan 7 4:30 AM CST
Sent to SMS at Jan 6 2:05 PM CST
[Image: vnd.ogc.se_inimage&BBOX=-1019706...15,4397785]
Radar Time: Jan 6 2011 2:30 PM CST
[Image: maplegend.png]
000
WWUS84 KMEG 062005
SPSMEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
205 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-071030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVILLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
205 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011

...MAJOR WINTER STORM LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION
REGARDING A WINTER SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT TO
THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST SUNDAY AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND SPREAD
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
NORTH INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP COLD
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN SNOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SLEET MIXING
WITH THE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES NORTH. ANY SLEET THAT FALLS
INITIALLY WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW.

GIVEN THE TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND
ITS ABILITY TO TAP INTO ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE...THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN ADDITION...STRONG
DYNAMICS PRESENT WITHIN THE STORM WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF
EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW BANDS.

VERY EARLY ESTIMATES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE IN THE
2 TO 5 INCH RANGE TOWARD THE KENTUCKY/MISSOURI BORDERS TO AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST
IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE...AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

DUE TO THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
COLD INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE CLEARING ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS DIFFICULT WITH THE SLUSH OR WET SNOW REFREEZING. DUE TO
THE INABILITY TO SUFFICIENTLY CLEAN ROADWAYS IN THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY WHEN COMPARED TO NORTHERN STATES...TRAVEL MAY REMAIN
DIFFICULT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD STAY UPDATED TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND FUTURE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COMMERCE AND SOCIETY.

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
01-06-2011, 04:34 PM
Post: #35
DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11
Nashville,TN

Quote:DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER FEATURES...THIS PATTERN COULD
SUPPORT A SWATH OF SUBSTANTIAL (6+) SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE SOUTH HALF WILL BE TARGETED WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
THE USUAL DISCLAIMERS APPLY...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...MODELS
CAN CHANGE..

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
01-06-2011, 04:39 PM
Post: #36
DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11
James Spann

Quote:HEAVIEST SNOW: At this point, it looks like heavy snow is a very real possibility over the northern third of Alabama. Areas north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden, could see 4-8 inches of snow Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The main period for this heavier snow will be from around 12:00 noon Sunday through 12:00 noon Monday.
GREATEST CHANCE OF ICE ISSUES: To the south, snow is likely over Central Alabama, but model data also suggests that warmer air in the 3,000-6,000 foot range could change the snow over to freezing rain at times. This is the most difficult part of this forecast; resolving the exact type of precipitation and potential for icing along the I-20 corridor (Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston). For now will just mention a chance of snow and freezing rain for this strip of the state Sunday night into Monday morning. There could be enough ice load for significant travel issues and maybe even some power outages, if the freezing rain lasts long enough.

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
01-06-2011, 04:41 PM
Post: #37
DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11
[video=youtube;hWY16MKFtvs]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWY16MKFtvs&feature=player_embedded[/video]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
01-06-2011, 04:54 PM
Post: #38
DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11
Looking like a possible trip to Memphis Smile

Quote:LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO TEXAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS COAST WILL TRACK ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
THE GULF COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE 500 MB LOW
TRACKING VERY FAVORABLY ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AMPLE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE...SHOULD PROVE
IMPORTANT FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS IS A LOW OF TROPICAL ORIGIN
SO IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. IN ADDITION...A DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF
MOISTURE AS WELL.

DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE. STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT COMMENCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND 06Z MONDAY. THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A SMALL TROWAL SIGNATURE EVIDENT...ALLOWING FOR A LARGE SNOW
SHIELD DURING THIS TIME. CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE SOME CSI
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION...WHICH IS ALSO
COINCIDENT WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. THUS...BANDING OF SNOW LOOKS
LIKELY WITH HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE BANDS
PARTICULARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MOISTEN
PRETTY QUICKLY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BEGINNING OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AROUND 21Z SUNDAY AND ELSEWHERE BY 00Z MONDAY.

THE STORM TOTAL QPF ON THE ECMWF RANGES FROM ABOUT 0.15 NEAR THE
KY/MO LINE TO 1/2 INCH NEAR I-40 AND NEAR 3/4 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MS. THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE LIGHTER AS IT HAS BEEN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NEW 18Z NAM IS ACTUALLY MORE THAN THE STORM
TOTAL OFF THE ECMWF THROUGH ONLY 06Z MONDAY...WITH MORE OCCURRING
AFTER THE MODEL ENDS. THE CANADIAN IS ALSO A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN
THE ECMWF. AS IMPRESSIVE AS THESE NUMBERS ALREADY ARE...I HAVE A
FEELING THE MODELS DON/T QUITE HAVE A HANDLE ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY AS YET SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...QPF AMOUNTS MAY RISE A BIT WITH TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE RAOB NETWORK IN THE NEXT DAY.

AT THIS POINT...THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS VERY PRELIMINARY BUT
PUTTING THIS ALTOGETHER POINTS TOWARD 2-5 INCHES NEAR THE MO/KY
BORDERS AND 5 TO AS MUCH AS 8 OR MORE INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-40. THIS JIVES WITH THE GARCIA METHOD OF DOUBLING THE MEAN
12-HOUR MIXING RATIO /ABOUT 3.25 G/KG OVER NORTHERN MS/ DURING THE
PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR A WINTER STORM
WATCH...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE MAIN THREATS. THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

AFTER THE STORM PUSHES EAST...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINOR. THEN A
STRONG 1045-1050 MB HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH FRESH...DEEP SNOW COVER LIKELY TO BE ON
THE GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
INDICATES. SHOULD SEE LOWS APPROACH ZERO IN THE TYPICAL COLD
LOCATIONS AND SINGLE DIGITS OR LOW TEENS ELSEWHERE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PUSHES OVERHEAD.

BORGHOFF

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
01-06-2011, 05:09 PM
Post: #39
DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11
Mobile


Quote:WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...THEN SMALL TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW THIRTIES...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ALTO DECK AND A FAIRLY DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER...WITH THE WET BULB REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO BELOW THE
CLOUD DECK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH A COLDER
WET BULB BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE FURTHER EAST OVER INLAND ZONES.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CURRENT PACKAGE HAS PRECIPITATION REMAINING
LIQUID OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AND A MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR THIRD WHICH LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
EXCEPT HAVE ALSO ADDED SLEET INTO THE MIX. AS THE OVERRUNNING
INCREASES WITH THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCING EASTWARD...POPS INCREASE TO
LIKELY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE AREA...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ELEVATED
LAYER ALOFT FROM ROUGHLY 675-900 MB WARMING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE DAY WITH ABOUT A 100 MB DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER
BENEATH...WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT HAVE A
SUBFREEZING LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE CURRENT FORECAST STARTS
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTION...INCLUDING SLEET BASED ON SOUNDINGS...WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE
THEN TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION WITH THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
SHOWING GENERALLY THE SAME THING BUT ALSO SHOW A POTENTIAL SWITCH TO
ALL LIQUID OVER THE WESTERN PORTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT
THE FORECAST AS IS EXCEPT FOR ADDING SLEET IN THE MORNING AND WILL
LET MIDSHIFT REASSESS WITH 00Z ECMWF/GFS MODEL DATA. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH THE GFS
ELIMINATING THE LOW LEVEL SUBFREEZING LAYER OVER INTERIOR ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A MODEST SUBFREEZING LAYER IN
THE LOWEST 50-100 MB OVER THE INLAND PORTION. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS
MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERNMOST ZONES TRANSITIONING TO PURELY
LIQUID LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...WILL NEED TO
STAY WITH A MIX INLAND DURING THE ENTIRE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TOO
WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER FORTIES ON SUNDAY THEN LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM MID THIRTIES WELL INLAND TO LOWER FORTIES
NEAR THE COAST. THAT SAID...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WET BULB
EFFECTS DUE TO LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO RESULT
IN COOLER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ACCRETION ON EXPOSED SURFACES AND BRIDGES. /29

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
01-06-2011, 05:14 PM
Post: #40
DEEP SOUTH SNEAUX 1/9/11-1/11/11
N.O

Quote:STRICTLY BASED ON PREFERRED
THICKNESS SCHEMES...WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT SEEM
WARRANTED...HOWEVER MODEL SMOOTHING AND SHALLOWNESS OF COLD
AIR...AMONG OTHER FACTORS...MAY NOT CATCH THE FULL ESSENCE OF WHAT
CAN BE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE COLDER AIR BE MORE ENTRENCHED AND THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH THAN MODEL INDICATED...THEN A STRIP OF SLEET AND/OR SNOW MIX
MAY RESULT ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES. THERE IS A LOW NON-ZERO
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE...BUT DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE FROM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Thread Closed 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)