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Deep South White Xmas 2010?
12-19-2010, 11:24 AM
Post: #1
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
[Image: image16.gif]

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12-19-2010, 11:51 AM
Post: #2
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
You going to snow chase again?

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12-19-2010, 02:18 PM
Post: #3
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
Sorry, but I don't consider that Deep South Smile Deep is Houston, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Mobile, Pensacola... That's my opinion. This post had me all excited for a hot second

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12-19-2010, 02:21 PM
Post: #4
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
dkmac Wrote:You going to snow chase again?

Not sure what I am doing and this isn't even looking like a minor event at this time Smile

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12-19-2010, 04:08 PM
Post: #5
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
JB

Quote:New Big Dog has been cut.

SUNDAY 8 AM

Disruptive storm from plains to east coast for Christmas weekend

I often used sports metaphors to compare to the weather. Is any football victory sweeter than one that is done in the last minute after a long drive downfield in game where you dominated but just could not put the points on the board till the end? In many respects, a high profile forecast like this takes away from the meteorology and I regret and in someways, resent that. I just had the same thing happen, hurricane wise, that has happened so far in one area of my white Christmas forecast... the pattern was there, the storms werent. However one has to admit, if you ever wanted a pattern to keep you in the game, this is it.

The euro, and its ensembles really swung more strongly to the storm last night for Christmas eve and day, though they were there before hand, but now they are really cranking. And look folks, really. think about it. One storm after another is slamming California, its just a matter of time before one of these slows enough to crank on the east coast. Its trying this weekend, it just got caught too far out by 100 miles. But the pattern is ripe for Christmas day, and the snowcover chart for 1 pm that day remains one that would vindicate all the forecast idea... and then some. Again, I would hope that the objective reader here understands, whether it pans out or not, what it took as far as research to issue this forecast for the pattern that would get us this far.. back in late november, and also that the hurricane analog for December carried the month.. with flying colors.. the strongest of all of them!!!!

But before we talk later in the week, some fun and games up front, Monday-Wednesday. I have no change on snow amounts right now with the clipper that is coming across and will weaken, but hold together enough , to carry some snow to the east coast a bit further north than the last clipper. This will be the 3rd system in this pattern to this, up until now, there have been 5, one was the midwest mauler.. a major storm, the other is passing out to sea today. But there is a side twist with that. As the system that is coming through the mid atlantic goes my, it forces major height falls off the mid atlantic coast..turns the upper flow in New England to the nne and allows warm advection snow to spread through much of New England Wednesday. The ultimate irony is that it may snow Wednesday into Thursday in areas of the northeast.. that wont see the Christmas snow till late Christmas day, meaning the target of heaviest snow Christmas day may be the very areas that on Christmas eve, still dont have snow on the ground. my point is the hole closes over the northeast side from the northeast, before the Christmas storm comes from the west.

The storm will dump heavy amounts in the plains and midwest. right now, I think if you take the I -70 corridor on the south and the I-80 corridor on the north, you have the axis of heaviest snow with this in the Thursday night-Sunday morning period, from the plains east, until the Appalachians. Then it looks like it switches to I-81, I 95 from northern va eastward. Its tempting to say, well look at this one and how it fell apart. True. But its also the idea the pattern will be more ripe for this, and unlike this storm which never got going to the west at all, this one should be showing its hand by Friday morning with major disruptive snows in the midwest and Ohio valley breaking out

Interestingly enough... the last 2 Christmas day MAJOR eastern snows were in 2002 and 1969...both el nino years. The Big Dog will fetch the maps from both for you on todays video extravaganza

So its 6 days before Christmas, and in the northeast snowfall in my forecast area is still just the least Flakes have been seen, but have stayed in the air And in this crucial area the ground is still bare The thoughts of no snow, fill all geese with dread And while can not yet put that chance to bed A voice is exclaiming, from the pattern that is in sight The White Christmas forecast, is still looking bright.

Check out the latest snowcover chart for Christmas day on the pro site!

stay hungry, my geese

ciao for now

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12-20-2010, 09:48 AM
Post: #6
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
All that we are looking at is cold Christmas:

7 Day KLFY TV10:
[Image: 7day.jpg]

14 Day KFLY TV10:
[Image: 14Day.jpg]

WE REALLY NEED SOME RAIN. BY WE I MEAN ME AND MY DUCK HUNTING BUDDIES. OUR DUCK HOLES ARE MOSTLY DRY!!!

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12-20-2010, 11:23 AM
Post: #7
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
Gulfcoast is Mobile , Pensacola Smile Deep south is central AL and above

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12-20-2010, 11:29 AM
Post: #8
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
[Image: gfs132hr_sfc_ptyp.gif]

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12-20-2010, 11:33 AM
Post: #9
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
Nashville,TN

Quote:A STRONG COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXED PRECIP FRI EVE
TURNING TO MOSTLY SNOW LATER FRI NGT. CHANCE OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ON SAT AND TAPER OFF SAT NGT. THERE IS...SOME...POSSIBILITY
OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATION...BUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT DAY 5 AND 6

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12-20-2010, 11:34 AM
Post: #10
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
HPC

Quote:SOUTH AND EAST...
THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOW/MORE CLOSED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE WITH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF THE OVERALL 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ITS SOLUTION...IMPLYING IT IS TOO
SLOW. TELECONNECTIONS FARTHER NORTH IMPLY STRONGER ENERGY SHOULD
BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH SHOULD
ABSORB THE SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST. EITHER WAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OR TENNESSEE
VALLEY OFFSHORE THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW
CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS CYCLONE WILL TRACK. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE
MOST NORTHWESTERLY OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE...AND IF THIS
SURFACE LOW WERE MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
RATHER THAN A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONE A MORE COASTAL TRACK FOR
NEW ENGLAND WOULD MAKE SENSE. SINCE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
THE CASE...AND THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS
CYCLONE IN CANADA...ITS CYCLONE TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
PROBABLY TOO FAR NORTH/TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...MOVE THIS
SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM...A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE/AREA
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...WHICH APPEARS
MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. DUE TO
PREFERENCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHOSE
THE 00Z CANADIAN HERE...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF OR 00Z GEFS MEAN
ARE REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES. EITHER WAY...WINTER WEATHER SHOULD
SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS
UNDER THE BASE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST REMAINS
SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION MARK...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING...THE 00Z
ECMWF LOOKS LIKE A LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO.

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