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Deep South White Xmas 2010?
12-21-2010, 01:36 PM
Post: #21
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
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12-21-2010, 03:26 PM
Post: #22
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
HPC

Quote:IN THE EAST...THE MAIN ISSUE INVOLVES THE INTERACTION OR PHASING
OF MULTIPLE STREAMS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM BEGINNING DAY 4. OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY IN INITIAL CONDITIONS...DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
CONFIGURATIONS INCLUDING RESOLUTION...AND DIFFERENCES IN DATA
ASSIMILATION TECHNIQUES...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN THIS REGION IS
UNUSUALLY SENSITIVE...WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL
MODELS...POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...AND LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREADS.
THUS...THE APPROACH FOR THE EASTERN CONUS SYSTEM IS TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND FORECAST CONTINUITY. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT MADE
WITH THE FINAL PRESSURES/FRONTS PROGS IN THE EAST WAS TO NUDGE THE
FINAL POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TOWARD A
CONSENSUS OF THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH THE FINAL POSITIONS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF.
AFTER DISCOUNTING THE 12Z UKMET DUE TO ITS OUTLIER DEPICTIONS IN
MULTIPLE AREAS...THE 12Z ECMWF LIES NEAR THE SLOW OR SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
UNCERTAINTIES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE...WOULD RATHER SEE ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEFORE
USING ENTIRELY...WHICH IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES...LIES WITHIN THE
LOWEST 10 PERCENT OF ALL SOLUTIONS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LESS. IF
THE NEW ECMWF VERIFIES...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HOWEVER...ITS SPEED WILL BE MUCH
SLOWER...RESULTING IN GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

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12-21-2010, 03:26 PM
Post: #23
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
MRX

Quote:ERY INTERESTING
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. FIRST...MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR VERY
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THU AND THU NIGHT. MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE
ON DETAILS OF WEEKEND SYSTEM. GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWEST AND
FASTER...BUT HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE CONSENSUS ECMWF
SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A MORE OF BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CARRY CHANCE WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. PRECIP TYPE DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...BUT AT THIS POINT
LOOKS LIKE PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR A MIX...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...THEN TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD
SEE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR PUSHES
IN FOR SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY...AND MAY BE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS. MODEL AGREEMENT POOR FOR TUESDAY SO CONFIDENCE LOW...BUT FOR
NOW WILL GO DRY.

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12-21-2010, 04:00 PM
Post: #24
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
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12-21-2010, 04:02 PM
Post: #25
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
Winter Weather advisory needed ?

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
250 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...CLOUDY DAY BUT RATHER MILD WITH TEMPS IN 40S N TO 50S S.
WMFNT HAS MOVED N ACROSS CWA DURING DAY. HAS BEEN SOME VERY LITE
RAIN E 1/2.

WEAK LO PRES OVER CNTRL AR MAKING SLOW PROGRESS E. EXPECTING A
CHANCE OF LITE RN TONITE...MAINLY E 1/2...AS LO HEADS INTO TNVLY.

STRONG HI PRES (1035 MB) OVER UPPER DAKOTAS AND MN WILL PROVIDE
BAROCLINIC IMPETUS FOR SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN STATES
BY FRI. ONSET SLOWER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR FRI. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR NAM...KEEPING OUR HOPES ALIVE
FOR A WHITE XMAS. BEST PERIOD OF MEASURABLE SN WILL BE XMAS
EVE...AND GFS GIVES .3 QPF AROUND BNA...EXPANDING E INTO PLATEAU
BY MIDNITE. THIS WOULD BE ADVISORY CRITERIA AT LEAST...AND 4
INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF GFS RIGHT. FLY IN OINTMENT...12Z
EURO HAS LO EVEN FURTHER S THAN B4 AND DELAYS START OF PRECIP
SOME...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SN SAT. SO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT
PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE BETTER DETERMINATION.

BACKLASH SNOW WILL LINGER INTO SUN...AN EVEN MON...AS LO MOVES
ALONG ATLC COAST. LITE ADDITIONAL ACCUMLATION LIKELY...ESECIALLY E 1/2.
QUITE COLD INTO TUE.

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12-21-2010, 04:25 PM
Post: #26
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
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12-21-2010, 06:39 PM
Post: #27
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
....

Quote:.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
60 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW
60 PERCENT.
.CHRISTMAS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. COLDER. HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. COLD. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.

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12-21-2010, 07:24 PM
Post: #28
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
[Image: eta.totsnow192.gif]

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12-21-2010, 07:25 PM
Post: #29
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
[Image: eta.acsnow90.gif]

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12-21-2010, 09:02 PM
Post: #30
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
Looking really good for a white Xmas for the entire state of TN

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlay...TIONID=OHX

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