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Deep South White Xmas 2010?
12-20-2010, 11:37 AM
Post: #11
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
JB

Quote:MONDAY MORNING MEMO

Now that the coastal has missed wide right for most (some snow southeast New England and an arm advection wrap-around event there), the Big Dog shows the Euro and its ensembles this morning, which are similar to the 1969 Christmastime storm. The GFS snow cover chart shows, because it is again adjusting south, the new Christmas snow cover, leaving the hole in place in the forecast. I don't believe it, but then again this dog bit on what just happened. Wave enough meat in front of me, and I will extract my pound of flesh.

The Long Ranger takes his inspiration from an email from an Alaskan subscriber to talk about the similarity between this winter and 1950. I want to point out, that I did a video back in March disagreeing with the NOAA 9-12 month winter forecast there, which they had warm, as I believed strongly in the La Nina and cold PDO leading to the nasty winter in Alaska. Well, they haven't seen anything yet, if the 1950 analog holds, which I think it's going to up there.

The free site shows the arctic sea ice report, and the leveling off of ice increase ON ALL SITES last week. I also preview the coming Euro thaw, a break before the reload of winter there with the axis farther southeast.

The storm coming out, whether it exits as far south as the GFS says or not, will still be a major disruptive storm from west to east for the U.S. on top of Christmas, and make for many a fond white Christmas memory farther south than normal. The turning northeast, I think, is pretty much assured, but I am sobered by my error. Keep in mind the error of mid November's warmth lasting too long was followed by the cold December being dead on. Let's hope I can come off my back this week as well.

I make no apologies about wanting to drive home my point to a level where there can be no doubt in any of the target zones, and if it comes on the very day in question... all the better.

Penn State whipped Ohio State yesterday 42-3 after pounding Loch Haven 45-0. Maybe some of the excess testosterone from watching this (Ohio State was ranked 22nd... it may have been their worst loss ever) has got me fired up and feisty this morning. At my age, that can be dangerous.

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12-20-2010, 01:26 PM
Post: #12
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
[Image: 12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_C...12_120.jpg]

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12-20-2010, 02:24 PM
Post: #13
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
[Image: CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif]

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12-20-2010, 02:26 PM
Post: #14
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
Euro

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cm...m_reg.html

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12-20-2010, 04:20 PM
Post: #15
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
Nashvegas

Quote: AT 00Z SAT.
EUROPEAN FARTHEST S. THIS AS A GOOD TRACK FOR SNOW FOR MID
STATE...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MODEL RUNS LEFT FOR BETTER

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12-20-2010, 05:25 PM
Post: #16
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
Boy, that looks like some serious Icing (a strip about 100long and 10 miles wide) for S. Carolina on day five.

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12-21-2010, 08:36 AM
Post: #17
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
Nashville,TN

Quote:MODELS EXPECT THE SRN PORTION OF THE HUGE WRN PACIFIC TROUGH TO
MOVE INLAND AND ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES ON THU TO SUPPORT THE SFC
SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SRN PLAINS THU NGT. THE SFC LOW MOVES
BASICALLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST IN THE
THU NGT TO SAT TIME FRAME...TRANSITING THE MIDSTATE FRI EVE.

MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVELS TURN TO THE N/NW
FOR THE FRI NGT TO MON PERIOD. THAT MEANS THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION
TO FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE. STILL TOO EARLY TO
PREDICT HOW MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW ACCUMULATION BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL
SNOW ACCUMULATION ALGORITHMS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE 1-2 INCHES
WEST OF THE PLATEAU AND 3-5 INCHES IN THE PLATEAU. YOU CAN TAKE
THAT FOR WHAT ITS WORTH.

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12-21-2010, 08:43 AM
Post: #18
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
JUST BRING ME SOME DECENT RAIN.

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12-21-2010, 10:05 AM
Post: #19
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
Who cares about rain ! It's about the snow baby

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12-21-2010, 12:34 PM
Post: #20
Deep South White Xmas 2010?
WOW

Quote:Potential exists for measurable snow Christmas

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1054 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221600-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-****SON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...****SON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
1054 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2010

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS IN
17 YEARS...


THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY NINE CHRISTMASES WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF
SNOW SINCE SNOWFALL RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN NASHVILLE BACK IN THE
WINTER OF 1884 AND 1885. THE LAST TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY IN NASHVILLE WAS IN 1993 WHEN THREE TENTHS OF AN
INCH WAS MEASURED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW FELL ON CHRISTMAS IN
2002. STATISTICALLY THERE IS ONLY A 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
SNOW ON ANY GIVEN CHRISTMAS. THE MOST SNOW EVER TO FALL ON
CHRISTMAS IN NASHVILLE IS 2.7 INCHES IN 1969.

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...SPREADING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...COLDER AIR GETS
DRAWN IN BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM...WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CONTINUE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THIS IS A FAVORED TRACK FOR SNOW
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...BUT SINCE THIS EVENT IS SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY...UNCERTAINITY STILL REMAINS IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
STORM SYSTEM AND SNOW AMOUNTS.

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