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EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
08-06-2010, 08:49 AM
Post: #1
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
Rob Lightbown

Quote:Northern Gulf of Mexico Homebrew Development Early Next Week??:
Some of the computer model guidance, especially the European model is forecasting the possibility of some sort of tropical or subtropical system to form in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday before coming ashore on the central Gulf coast sometime Wednesday. It should be noted that the European model has been showing this for more than two days now with some of the other model guidance kind of hinting at this.

The reason behind this possible tropical or subtropical development is a trough of low pressure over the eastern United States splitting and causing a piece of energy to travel southwestward from the coast of South Carolina and Georgia on Sunday to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during Monday and Tuesday. This piece of energy may cause the development of a surface low pressure system which could gain subtropical or tropical storm status before moving inland on the central Gulf coast on Wednesday. The thing that would prevent development is the amount of time (which will not be much) over Gulf waters.
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08-06-2010, 09:24 AM
Post: #2
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
[Image: 00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif]

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08-06-2010, 09:31 AM
Post: #3
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
One thing's for sure, the Gulf is plenty hot for rapid development.
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08-06-2010, 12:58 PM
Post: #4
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
JB

Quote:The GFS still is not picking up what I think could be the next threat to the U.S., and that is what this front may do once down in the Gulf and off the southern Atlantic coast. It's trying... but it's not yet to where the Euro is on it. An interesting situation, and the reason I am concerned about this is that it fits a pattern that can lead to this kind of non-deep tropical development, and on top of someone.

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08-06-2010, 02:44 PM
Post: #5
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
Tampa NWS

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
119 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A TUTT LOW ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
WED. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE POSITION AND THE MOISTURE RETURN. GFS
PUSHES THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WESTWARD THROUGH GA AND AL AND
ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP SOMEWHAT OF A SURFACE LOW. ECMWF IS SHOWING A
CLOSED 1010 LOW FORMING OVER TAMPA BAY WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS AN
OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY
UNCERTAINTY OF THESE FEATURES AND THE DIFFICULTLY THE MODELS
CURRENTLY ARE HAVING WITH THIS SYSTEM...TOOK A MODEST BLEND OF THE
THE ECMWF AND GFS ON MON AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...BUMPED UP POPS TO 60 ACROSS THE
BOARD ON MON. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCATTERED POPS THROUGH WED...BUT
MAY HAVE INCREASE IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WELL WEST OF THE STATE...

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08-06-2010, 02:44 PM
Post: #6
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
[Image: 5dayfcst_wbg.gif]

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08-06-2010, 03:35 PM
Post: #7
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
We shall see what happens, but water temps in the Tampa Bay area are running 89-90 degrees. Granted that is shallow water, but 88 degrees are shown near the Pasco County Buoy.

Nothing much may happen except bring a lot of rain to our area, which I won't complain if we get a lot.
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08-06-2010, 03:42 PM
Post: #8
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
Might not be too bad if it stays below Cane strength....it could brief heat relief and temporarily cool down the SSTs
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08-06-2010, 07:27 PM
Post: #9
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
We will need that front to hang around down there for a little bit, but I suppose it would be possible given the decent surface convergence associated with the front. As some have said....the water is shallow in the area but it is boiling. Won't take very long to up-well some cooler water temps though. Time to dig and see what the GFS shows and why it may be an open wave...
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08-06-2010, 10:52 PM
Post: #10
EX TD#5 Makes Landfall in MS
After reviewing the pattern in the upper levels of the GFS....TS/STS formation chances are going to be pretty short down there as there is alot of convergence from the top down. We want to see divergence up top, but with a ridge over KY and a TUTT down near the Yucatan....it will be hard to get a well organized warm core system. I'm not going to say it's totally impossible and won't happen, but *IF* the GFS upper level pattern verifies it will probably be small, weak, short lived, and moving west bound toward LA/TX.
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