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March big dog storm has been nutered
02-21-2010, 10:07 PM
Post: #1
March big dog storm has been nutered
Longrange models have continued for days now to show a big snow possible around March 2/3. Long time local met Dan Satterfield of WHNT in Huntsville said it has comparisons to the March 93 bilizzard. Stay tuned.....
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02-22-2010, 09:11 AM
Post: #2
March big dog storm has been nutered
HPC

Quote:PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
253 AM EST MON FEB 22 2010

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 26 2010 - 12Z MON MAR 01 2010

STRONG POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS CANADA ARE
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE FROM EASTERN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...FAVORING A CLOSED CYCLONE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS
MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREE ON THIS IDEA...AND WITH EACH
OTHER ELSEWHERE. STARTED WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GEFS
MEAN/00Z ECMWF AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS PER THE 12Z MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING FROM THIS PREFERENCE...WHICH LED GOOD
CONTINUITY AND A MORE NORTHERLY CYCLONE CROSSING TEXAS INTO
LOUISIANA FROM LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY WET IN THE WEST THIS PERIOD AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEYOND...SOUTHERN SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
BOTH LOWS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE GULF COAST THIS PERIOD..
.AND
NEW ENGLAND SNOWS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
PESKY DEEP CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN ITS
WAKE...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AVENUE OF ARCTIC AIR IS FAVORED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIR
EXPECTED WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

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02-22-2010, 09:14 AM
Post: #3
March big dog storm has been nutered
GFS

[Image: 00zgfsensemblep12192.gif]

[Image: 00zgfsensemblep12204.gif]

[Image: 00zgfsensemblep12216.gif]

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02-22-2010, 01:22 PM
Post: #4
March big dog storm has been nutered
Blizzard on the way?
Dan Satterfield's blog:
http://wildwildweather.com/TVWB/TVWB/Ten...Maybe.html

Quote:another Blizzard On The Way??


Another Blizzard ?? - Maybe

Monday, 22 February 2010


The long range weather models have been indicating that a major blizzard will develop in about 8 days and hot the East Coast of America.


First of all, you should know that numerical weather models are NOT reliable this far into the future. Things can and will be different than what the image above shows. That said the guidance is a lot better than it was 10 years ago and it is much better than it was in 1993 when the super storm of March 1993 brought all time record snowfalls to Alabama and Georgia.


The early indications are showing some real similarities to that storm. It develops in the Gulf of Mexico and deepens into an intense storm as it moves into the Appalachians. The 93 storm was in mid March. This one, if it develops will be very early in March.


The big question is will the southern jet which has been strong all winter, due to El Nino, will phase with the polar jet. The polar jet has been much further south this year than what we would expect to see. Especially in a winter with a moderately strong El Nino.


I still remember looking at the weather charts the week before the 1993 blizzard. The long range models were surprisingly consistent with that storm. Similar to this one- so far.


Long Range Numerical Weather prediction Model- Forecast for March 3rd.

The image on the left is the 200 millibar chart for early next week. This is a chart showing the winds and storm track at around 9,000 meters high in the atmosphere.


This is the jet stream level and it’s a good chart to look at to see if the jet streams are likely to phase.


This model run is showing that there IS phasing between the southern and northern branch of the jet streams. This would produce a much stronger storm.


The fact that the oceans are unusually warm globally will be another factor. January saw the second warmest oceans on the instrumental record. This is very likely due to the increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.


Will it happen?


My gut feeling is that we will see a pretty strong storm next week. Whether the jets will phase, and it will track up the east coast is still questionable. So is the possibility of it tracking in the right way to grab enough warm moist air from the Gulf Stream to turn into an historic blizzard.


As we say in TV- Stay Tuned. Oh, and if your local meteorologist seems a bit harried this week, now you know why.


Dan

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02-22-2010, 01:38 PM
Post: #5
March big dog storm has been nutered
Saturday is looking rather nice right now so lets focus on that system first before we talk about Monday and Tuesday of next week. I will have more later after I get out of class Smile

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02-22-2010, 02:18 PM
Post: #6
March big dog storm has been nutered
[Image: 12zgfsensemblep12180.gif]

[Image: 12zgfsensemblep12192.gif]

[Image: 12zgfsensemblep12204.gif]

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02-22-2010, 02:25 PM
Post: #7
March big dog storm has been nutered
ROLLTIDE Wrote:[Image: 12zgfsensemblep12180.gif]

[Image: 12zgfsensemblep12192.gif]

[Image: 12zgfsensemblep12204.gif]

Holy S**t, Roll! Not again! The snow finally melted yesterday.
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02-22-2010, 04:00 PM
Post: #8
March big dog storm has been nutered
I am trying to get an idea of the weather for next Saturday 2-27 for Tallahassee area? I am good with anything but rain and snow.
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02-22-2010, 04:16 PM
Post: #9
March big dog storm has been nutered
stormfreak Wrote:I am trying to get an idea of the weather for next Saturday 2-27 for Tallahassee area? I am good with anything but rain and snow.

right now it's not looking that bad with 55 to 60 for a high and some isolated showers in the afternoon but that's subject to change.

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02-22-2010, 04:21 PM
Post: #10
March big dog storm has been nutered
Awesome thank you I will stay tuned, I love this site.
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