March big dog storm has been nutered

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12z ECMWF

120 hrs:



144 hrs:

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HPC

Quote:THE SHORTWAVE WITH A STRONG NEG HT ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS TX AND
THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE HVY RAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST MON AND
TUES AND EWD ACROSS FL INTO GA AND SC. DEEP TROF WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HTS/MID/LOW LEVEL TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SNOW ACROSS
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS NRN AL/GA/SRN AND ERN TN.
AS THE TROF TAKES A MORE NEG TILTED ORIENTATION HEAVIER SNOW FALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS OF SC/NC/SWRN VA AND SRN WV. HVY
COASTAL RAINS AND ONSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS WITH HIGH SURF AND
BEACH EROSION/COASTAL FLOODING THREAT CAN BE EXPECTED TUES INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. AS THE MOVES UP EWD
ALONG THE COAST LOW DEEPENS LOWERING 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AND H850 TEMPS IMPLY A SIG SNOW VERY POSSIBLY HVY SNOW THREAT FROM
THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NEWD INTO THE
LOWER VA PIEDMONT/TIDEWATER AREAS OF VA AND POSSIBLY LOWER SRN MD
AND LOWER DELMARVA. STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL FROM THE
MID ATLC REGION NWD ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST. DETAILS OF PCPN
TYPE/AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE EVENT
CLOSES TO WITHIN A 72 HR OR LESS TIMEFRAME.

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Jackson NWS

Quote:.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE STRONG SRN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BEFORE INTERACTING/PHASING WITH THE NRN STREAM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A NRN GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY WITH TIME AS IT MOVES EAST JUST OFF SHORE. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN WITH THIS EVENT AS MODEL FORECASTED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES STAY TOO WARM FOR SNOW UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENT...WHEN GFS WET BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS DROP TO ~1000 FT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL STAY MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH SO THIS
EVENT MAY END UP BEING SOMEWHAT PEDESTRIAN BY SPRING STANDARDS IN THE ARKLAMISS. HOWEVER...SEEING THE GFS UPPER JET SOLUTION WITH 140KT CORE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS TX AND WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SURPRISES AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF EITHER THE RAIN TRENDED HEAVIER OR IF THE ADIABATIC/DIABATIC
COOLING AND SNOW POTENTIAL END UP BEING GREATER THAN ADVERTISED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS EVENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES/POPS...HAVE CUT GFS MOS HIGHS FOR MONDAY WITH THE LIKELY PROSPECT FOR CLOUDY/RAINY WEATHER TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...AND HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE HBG AREA MONDAY EVNG WHERE CHANCE POPS LOOK TOO LOW.
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12z GFS Ensemble Mean

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The 12z GFS brings snow down to the Gulfcoast