GulfCoast Snow 2/11/10-2/12/10

[Stormlover]

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18z NAM

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BMX update

Quote:NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
327 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT AS RAIN INVADES THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK...AND THERE ARE NO CONCERNS ABOUT WINTRY PRECIP. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY SENDING
TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR EAST ALABAMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN DEPARTING
TOWARDS SUNSET. DUE TO THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...FLASH
FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH ONLY ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S.

A NICE BUT COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. AS THE DISTURBANCE SLIDES EASTWARD
INTO TEXAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE
IS GOING TO BE A STORM DEVELOPING...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE NOT
AGREED UPON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STRUGGLING WITH THE 500 MB
FORECAST...AND I SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS A
SLOWER...STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED BY THE 12Z GFS. THROUGH YEARS OF WATCHING THE GFS I HAVE
NOTED A BIAS TOWARDS FLATTER AND WEAKER SOLUTIONS IN THE MODEL.
THROUGH COORDINATION...HPC NOTED THAT MOST OF THE SYSTEMS THIS
WINTER HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME. ALSO A
LOOK AT THE EXPERIENTIAL FIM MODEL SHOWS A MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH
WITH A SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...POPS WERE RAISED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF. ALSO IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN HALF COULD HAVE A SHOT AT
ALL SNOW WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF TRYING TO
DETERMINE ACCUMULATIONS. THE STORM IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY...AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A
REAL POSSIBILITY. TO SUMMARIZE THE TIMING...PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS BEFORE EXPANDING TO COVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN AREAS BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND FRIDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS RATHER COLD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY COME OUR WAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
COULD HOLD MORE CHALLENGES FOR THE EXTENDED.

GRANTHAM

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[Joe-Nathan]

MOVE THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE FURTHER SOUTH!!!!!!!!!

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Joe-Nathan Wrote:MOVE THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE FURTHER SOUTH!!!!!!!!!

What a great idea !!! +1

[Joe-Nathan]

NAM +84hrs SNOW DEPTH:

[Joe-Nathan]

FROM ACCUWEATHER:
[SIZE="3"]Second, Late-Week Snowstorm Threatens Much of South[/SIZE]

Quote:As the storm destined to be the next blizzard for 2010 brought snow, ice, rain and thunderstorms to the southern Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley Monday, a second storm is poised to bring the Deep South substantial and disruptive snow later in the weekend.

The combination of the soon-to-be blizzard, the upcoming southern snowstorm and more storms on the West Coast will make this the worst week of winter thus far for the nation, affecting well over one half of the population.

A snowstorm with increasing winds will continue to impact ground travel and flight departures at airports over the southern Plains through tonight.

Activities and schools will also be delayed or canceled much of the week due to the current winter weather and more soon to come.

Snow got to Denver, Oklahoma City, Little Rock and Memphis early this week with the first storm.

Cold air sweeping in on gusty winds will help to create power interruptions, icy roads and a little more snow on the tail end sweeping eastward through the southern Plains and the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys tonight into Wednesday.

A second storm aiming for California Tuesday into Wednesday with flooding rain and pass-clobbering snow will be a colder storm for the southern Plains, northern Texas and much of the Deep South.

The storm on deck will hit spreading snow and ice from the Four Corners Wednesday night to Oklahoma, and Arkansas to northern Texas and northern Louisiana Thursday, then on to Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and perhaps neighboring states Friday.

The potential for major travel disruptions from snow will spread eastward from Dallas to Atlanta during the second half of the week. A new round of heavy rain, flooding and related travel problems will trek along the Gulf Coast as well.


Story by AccuWeather.com Alex Sosnowski