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Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
01-24-2010, 10:39 PM
Post: #1
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
This is their AFD for this evening......


Quote:NEXT SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN SIMILAR ON THE PATH OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6-9 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THERMAL PROFILE FORECASTS VERY
CAREFULLY...AS CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS NOT ALL THAT FAR FROM A
POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN SITUATION.
MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE END OF WEEK SYSTEM.

BTW...DID YOU SEE THIS!!604 PM CST SUN JAN 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HIGH WATER AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL CENTRAL ALABAMA
RIVERS AND STREAMS TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY DUE
TO RECENT RAINFALL.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING
OF COLD AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
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01-24-2010, 10:39 PM (This post was last modified: 01-25-2010 08:15 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #2
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
Memphis

Quote:DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS LARGELY ON POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/ICE
STORM THIS WEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH A
POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THEY
DIFFER ON THE TIMING. GFS IS QUICKEST...BRINGING PRECIP IN
WEDNESDAY AND KICKING IT OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN
BRINGS PRECIP IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TAKES IT OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT A BIT SLOWER. HPC FAVORED
THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM POSITIVELY TILTED AND
MORE TRANSIENT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION AS WELL FOR
NOW...BUT THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS WINTER STORM WILL COME FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
PHASE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS
FROM TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRESH HIGH STILL PROVIDING PLENTY OF DRY
AIR TOWARD THE SURFACE...LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROAD WAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO ONLY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.
HOWEVER...AS THE POLAR JET PHASES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET...VERY
COLD SURFACE AIR AIDED BY A 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THURSDAY MAY BEGIN
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EVERYWHERE ONLY TO END WITH LOWER 20S
TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL AND NEAR FREEZING IN THE MEMPHIS METRO.
MEANWHILE...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WARM...MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTH
JUST ALOFT ON A 50-60 KNOT LLJ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL MEAN A PLETHORA OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES EVOLVING ALMOST CONSTANTLY FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO FREEZING RAIN FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
KMEM METRO BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FURTHER
THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH TEENS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-40
AND THE MID 30S DOWN INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AS THE LOW
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL ADVECT SOUTH AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO
SLEET AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE ESPECIALLY IF THE WARM TONGUE ABOVE THE
SURFACE IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO BRING ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME
LIGHTER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH. OBVIOUSLY
DEPENDING UPON THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO
SNOW...THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS WELL. TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN ADVERTISING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY. THUS...AN ENHANCED RISK OF TREE
AND POWER OUTAGES IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH THE MOST ICING.

AGAIN...IT NEEDS TO BE STRESSED THINGS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN INCREASING SOME TYPE OF WINTRY EVENT
WILL IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH BY LATER THIS WEEK.

BEHIND THE STORM...IT MAY GET QUITE COLD DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF ICE AND/OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD BY NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES.
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01-25-2010, 08:12 AM
Post: #3
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
Nashville,TN

Quote:TAKING A LOOK AT THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...INTERESTING
WEATHER SCENARIO COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND TEMPS THRU NIGHT AND FRIDAY NOT
EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 20S. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK S OF
THE MID STATE...AND THIS COULD DEVELOP INTO A WINTRY PRECIP
RETURN TO THE MID STATE. LOW TRACK WILL BE THE KEY HERE...AND AT
THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST REASONING. HOWEVER...
THIS SITUATION WILL NEE ED TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR FURTHER FORECAST CLARIFICATION. UNSEASONABLE
COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING INFLUENCES SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILD ACROSS THE MID STATE.

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01-25-2010, 08:18 AM
Post: #4
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
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01-25-2010, 08:24 AM
Post: #5
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
[Image: CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif]

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01-25-2010, 08:31 AM
Post: #6
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
Memphis,NWS

Quote:186
WWUS84 KMEG 251224
SPSMEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>005-007-008-010-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-252245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CARROLL-CHESTER-CLAY-COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-
GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-
OBION-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TATE-
TIPPAH-TIPTON-TUNICA-WEAKLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARTLETT...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...OLIVE BRANCH...PARAGOULD...PARIS...SAVANNAH...
SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...
WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
624 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTH
ALABAMA...THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...AND/OR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY NORTH
OF A CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE.

CONFIDENCE OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS HIGHEST NORTH OF A
HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO PARIS TENNESSEE LINE...INCLUDING THE
JONESBORO...POCAHONTAS...BLYTHEVILLE...CARUTHERSVILLE...AND UNION
CITY AREAS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SOUTH OF THIS LINE.

MIDSOUTHERNERS SHOULD PLAN AHEAD FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS LATER THIS WEEK.

$$

MBS

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01-25-2010, 09:36 AM
Post: #7
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
[Image: eta.totsnow192.gif]

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01-25-2010, 11:14 AM
Post: #8
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
ROLLTIDE Wrote:[Image: eta.totsnow192.gif]


Is this showing a dusting across SW and central LA?

The forecasted high on Friday is 40F following the passage of the front on Thursday night.

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01-25-2010, 11:19 AM
Post: #9
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
12zGFS

[Image: f108.gif]


[Image: f120.gif]

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01-25-2010, 12:09 PM (This post was last modified: 01-25-2010 12:19 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #10
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
Huntsville

Quote:TAKING A LOOK AT THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...INTERESTING
WEATHER SCENARIO COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND TEMPS THRU NIGHT AND FRIDAY NOT
EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 20S. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK S OF
THE MID STATE...AND THIS COULD DEVELOP INTO A WINTRY PRECIP
RETURN TO THE MID STATE. LOW TRACK WILL BE THE KEY HERE...AND AT
THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST REASONING. HOWEVER...
THIS SITUATION WILL NEE ED TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR FURTHER FORECAST CLARIFICATION. UNSEASONABLE
COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING INFLUENCES SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILD ACROSS THE MID STATE.
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