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Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
01-26-2010, 09:03 AM
Post: #31
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
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01-26-2010, 09:07 AM
Post: #32
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
New HPC freezing rain map:
[Image: day3_pice_gt_25.gif]

(Not good) Freezing rain probability thru 72 hours, it's moving southeast:

[Image: probwxtz_d3loop.gif]

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01-26-2010, 09:08 AM
Post: #33
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
Atlanta

Quote:.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF THIS MORNING DEPICTING
A LATER PASSAGE OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKING ACROSS GA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS DELAY SHOULD ALLOW MORE
WARM ADVECTION PRIOR TO ONSET OF PRECIP...KEEPING IT A RAIN EVENT
INITIALLY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST INTO SC FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MAY YIELD A TRANSITION TO A MIX OR
FULL CHANGEOVER TO -SN BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON SATURDAY. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING SOONEST...ON
FRIDAY EVENING. A COOL HIGH DIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS
WILL BRING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A
SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD INITIATE ON MONDAY.

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01-26-2010, 09:10 AM
Post: #34
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
Freezing rain

http://wxcaster4.com/animate/eta40km_loo...eight=1180

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01-26-2010, 09:11 AM
Post: #35
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
Huntsville

Quote:MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR PUSHES INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW...DUE TO A DIFFERENCE IN THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE ITS TRACK. GFS REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THIS
TRACK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND DGEX MOVING THE LOW JUST OFF THE GULF
COAST AND THROUGH JACKSONVILLE. THIS PROVIDES A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL CONSENSUS ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. GFS IS THE
WARMEST...BUT STILL BRINGS A STRIP OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
AND FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AL BY 5 OR 6 PM ON FRIDAY. SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ALL IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING RAIN...MAYBE ENDING BRIEFLY AS LIGHT SNOW. THINK THE
END RESULT WILL BE BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND TWO TENTHS OF ICE
ACCUMULATION IN NORTHEASTERN AL AND IN OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION
LOOKS REASONABLE. GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. IF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE ON TARGET WITH THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW...HIGHER ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

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01-26-2010, 10:06 AM
Post: #36
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
2z NAM at 66HR. Very strong Vortmax.

[Image: nam_500_066l.gif]

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01-26-2010, 01:10 PM
Post: #37
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
I'll take this!
[Image: iws1b_430.jpg]
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01-26-2010, 02:21 PM (This post was last modified: 01-26-2010 02:39 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #38
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
HPC continues this:
Quote:EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2010

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 29 2010 - 12Z TUE FEB 02 2010

...HEAVY SNOW/ICE SWATH LIKELY FROM THE TN VALLEY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
MID-ATLC FRI INTO SAT...
The only question is where is the ice and where is the snow?
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01-26-2010, 03:41 PM (This post was last modified: 01-26-2010 03:42 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #39
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
From Huntsville:
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010


Quote:236 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THURSDAY ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A
SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST
AREAS ALLOWING ALL RAIN TO FALL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES NEARBY...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA...A MIXTURE OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALABAMA AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ON SATURDAY.

AT THIS TIME...ACCUMULATIONS AND TIMING REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW...PERSONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS CHANGES MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

$$
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01-26-2010, 03:41 PM
Post: #40
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
[Image: day3_pice_gt_25.gif]

[Image: day3_psnow_gt_04.gif]

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