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Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
01-25-2010, 05:59 PM (This post was last modified: 01-25-2010 10:03 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #21
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD


Quote:133 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

VALID 12Z THU JAN 28 2010 - 12Z MON FEB 01 2010

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-SRN US TIER
STATES...
TELECONNECTIONS WITH A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 50N 150W FAVOR
RIDGING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE WRN US...DEEP
COLD TROUGHING DUG DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL US...AND
AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CUTTING UNDERNEATH THROUGH
THE US SRN TIER STATES. THIS FLOW AND EVEN WITH GUIDANCE BRINGING
ERN PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT INCREASINGLY INLAND ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL US BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE
ON THESE IDEAS AND FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
NORMAL DAYS 3-7 DESPITE SMALLER SCALE DETAIL VARIANCE.

HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY OUTPACE THE REMAINDER OF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. WITH SOLUTIONS OVERALL ON THE FAST EDGE
OF THE FULL ARRAY OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...THE 00Z
GFS/UKMET WERE CONSIDERED PLAUSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY OPTIONS. OF
THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE KEPT BETTER
DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH SYSTEM TIMING
AND GENERAL TRACK...CLUSTERING CLOSELY WITH THE BULK OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBER GUIDANCE. DUE TO THEIR GOOD CONTINUITY AND FAVORABLE
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT/LOW SPREAD...FINAL HPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS CLOSE CONTINUITY AND REMAINS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN...A SOLUTION CLUSTER NOW GENERALLY
JOINED BY THE 06Z GFS AND MUCH 12Z GUIDANCE.

IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS A MAJOR THREAT FOR HEAVY GULF COAST
STATES PCPN WITH A PRONOUNCED SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW/ICE
FURTHER INLAND AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM ENERGY PROGRESSES UNDERNEATH
SOUTHWARD SUNK NRN STREAM COLD AIR. THE MAIN WINTER THREAT SEEMS
TO FOCUS OVERTOP LOW PASSAGE SPREADING THU-SAT FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TO THE MID-LOWER MS AND TN/OH VALLEYS THEN SOUTH-CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
00Z GUIDANCE TRENDS AND
INCREASED FLOW SEPARATION BETWEEN THE POLAR VORTEX AND THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE SRN AND ERN US DECREASED SUBSEQUENT HEAVY SNOW
THREAT FOR NEW ENGLAND WITH COASTAL LOW DEEPENING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...06/12Z GUIDANCE HAS TO SOME DEGREE REVERSED
THAT TREND AS PER MORE WINTERY PCPN INLAND ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF
THE WRAP-BACK PCPN SHIELD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE NEW
ENG...ALBEIT WITH THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE.
THIS HIGHLIGHTS LINGERING MODEL RUN TO RUN SENSITIVITY WITH LESS
PREDICTABLE SMALLER SCALE COMPONENTS AND INTERACTIONS THAT MAY NOT
BE RESOLVED UNTIL SHORT RANGE TIME SCALES.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL
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01-25-2010, 06:00 PM (This post was last modified: 01-25-2010 10:02 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #22
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
From Mrx pm update:

Quote:LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA SHIFTS SE WED NGT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA AND LIGHT PCPN WILL BEGIN ON THU. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SW THU NGT. TRENDED REMAINDER OF
FORECAST SLOWER THAN THE GFS MUCH LIKE NCEP GUIDANCE. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE A CHALLENGE THU NGT AND EARLY FRI. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP N OF THE TN BORDER. SW VA WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS BY SAT. THE LOW TRACKS SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING AND
ALL PCPN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS CAA SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF INTO SAT. TRENDED REMAINDER OF FORECAST
COOLER THAN MEX MOS. LARGE UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY
RUNNING VERY COLD AND DONT EXPECT MUCH MODIFICATION AS IT BUILDS IN
THIS WEEKEND.
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01-25-2010, 06:01 PM (This post was last modified: 01-25-2010 10:02 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #23
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
MEG Special Weather Statement from this afternoon:

...
Quote:WINTER STORM EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...

A POWERFUL UPPER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING RAIN OVER TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ADVANCE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY BORDERS WILL LIKELY SEE
A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.

AT THIS TIME...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SYSTEM. SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL GREATLY IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

IT APPEARS THAT STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR...THE
STRONG WINDS COULD HELP BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...WHICH COULD CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES.

THE WINTER STORM SHOULD CLEAR THE MIDSOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR USHERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM.

MIDSOUTHERNERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES...FOLLOWED BY
SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$

PWB
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01-25-2010, 08:58 PM
Post: #24
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
Athensman Wrote:Huntsville
Quote:TAKING A LOOK AT THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...INTERESTING
WEATHER SCENARIO COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND TEMPS THRU NIGHT AND FRIDAY NOT
EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 20S. SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK S OF
THE MID STATE...AND THIS COULD DEVELOP INTO A WINTRY PRECIP
RETURN TO THE MID STATE. LOW TRACK WILL BE THE KEY HERE...AND AT
THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST REASONING. HOWEVER...
THIS SITUATION WILL NEE ED TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED THRU THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR FURTHER FORECAST CLARIFICATION. UNSEASONABLE
COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING INFLUENCES SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILD ACROSS THE MID STATE.
actually that is from Nashville..
anyway, here is a nice blog video frorm 31 here
http://www.stormforce31.com/?p=806
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01-25-2010, 09:24 PM
Post: #25
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
DGEX shows a foot or more for parts of the Tenn. Valley and several inches here...probably after some ice
[Image: eta.totsnow192.gif]
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01-25-2010, 10:01 PM
Post: #26
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
USE THE QUOTE BUTTON !!

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01-25-2010, 10:10 PM (This post was last modified: 01-25-2010 10:47 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #27
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
357 PM CST MON JAN 25 2010

.
Quote:SHORT TERM...STILL EXPECT SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS, WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

A CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE,
IT SHOULD BE DRY.

A COLD NIGHT DUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE BIG WEATHER NEWS STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG
THE GULF COASTAL AREA. LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OVER MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MID STATE AS COLD AIR GETS
PULLED IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO PUT AN ESTIMATE ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION TOTALS. HOWEVER, 4+ INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH. FREEZING RAIN WILL PROBABLY
BECOME A DANGEROUS PROPOSITION AS WELL, WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS.

VERY COLD ARCTIC HIGH PUSHES IN AFTER THE WINTER STORM GIVING US SOME
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW 32 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOME WARMER WEATHER DOES WORK ITS
WAY BACK IN FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS AT LEAST
PUSHING BACK INTO THE 40S.
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01-25-2010, 10:39 PM
Post: #28
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
from NWS Little Rock:
[Image: loop012810.gif]
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01-25-2010, 11:06 PM
Post: #29
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
[Image: CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif]

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01-25-2010, 11:18 PM
Post: #30
Historic Winter Storm 1/28/10-1/30/10
GFS seems a little warm. Low is trending farther south, but it seems off on temps. Some of the other models indicate an ice storm possible here in north Alabama, topped off by some snow. I still think places not far away, maybe Nashville will get a huge snow from this.
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