Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10

[Stormlover]

A stormy pattern will begin to set up over the nation this, the final week of December, and will last well into January. This will allow cold, snowy weather to abound for many. /banacool2/santa/lolayou2/thumbup

[jbdigitalphoto]

I sure hope this pans out, I have been very disappointed over the last couple of weeks, wintery weather within a few miles of me but nothing here but one or two flakes

[kobayashi]

jbdigitalphoto Wrote:I sure hope this pans out, I have been very disappointed over the last couple of weeks, wintery weather within a few miles of me but nothing here but one or two flakes

What's the long range forcast where you are?

[HarvestMoon]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1148 PM CST MON DEC 28 2009

Quote:A POLAR FRONT WILL BE HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR NEW YEARS EVE AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EVEN COLDER AIR LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE POTENT FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WORK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS
SEASON. [COLOR="Blue"]THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.[/COLOR]..BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE TO WORK WITH.

STILL THE PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR MORE OPPORTUNITIES OF WINTRY
WEATHER BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

[dkmac]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2009

Quote:SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS INTERESTING. A POLAR BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NE. THE HIGH DENSITY AIR MASS THAT MOVES IN
BEHIND IT WILL BE ABLE TO CREATE VERY STRONG ROLL VORTICITY THAT
WILL LIFT LAYERS AHEAD OF IT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MOISTURE
PROVIDED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY THE SW JET THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
OBVIOUSLY THE BIG QUESTION. THE GFS IS STILL VERY CONSERVATIVE
WITH THIS VARIABLE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.

.LONG TERM...
REGARDLESS OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP...SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 40S OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF ON MONDAY. MON NIGHT MAY BECOME THE FIRST HARD FREEZE
FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA AND THE FIRST FREEZE FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE. ANOTHER INTEREST TO WATCH WILL BE THE AGRESSIVENESS
OF THE CONTINUALLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET OUT OF THE SW. MODELS
STILL SHOWING THIS FEATURE KEEPING LIFT AND MOISTURE LOCKED UP
OVER THE GULF BUT WANTS TO BRING MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT IT
FLIRTS WITH OUR INNER COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN TO WATCH THIS.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

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[wxchaser420]

Looks like things are going to mellow out for a while. It appears the first week of January could be a cold one. Take a look at the 500MB-1000MB Thickness and Youll see what appears to be a Major Cold-Air Surge. The 540 Line appears to be reaching from around Shreveport, LA to Jackson, MS to Demopolis, AL by Tues.-Wed. which means Cold Air to the North of that line. If you look at this loop ive prepared, youll notice it sink down progressively and the canadian cold air will sink down as well.

Heres the Loop:


For those of you who may not know how to read this chart, let me explain. To avoid drawn out discussion, lets just keep it simple. That dark-blue line you see there with the "5400" on it is what weathermen call the "540-Line". Basically, that is where the real cold air is. Anything North of that line is going to be pretty cold. When you see it dipping all the way down into the Gulf like it is. You know that the South is in for some Cold Weather.



I expect the first week of January to be very cold as Typical for this time of year. At this moment, the Euro and GFS runs dont suggest any kind of Severe Storms for the next Week or so. This is the only story Ive got going for right now. Keep an Eye out coming into 2010 for LIVE Streaming, Forecasts, Photos, Videos and Reports - Fresh from the Field.

[ROLLTIDE]

From Tim Coleman

Quote:2010 to start bitterly cold in Alabama

December 29, 2009, 2:25 pm | "[email protected]" | Forecast Discussion
**SEVERE COLD POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK**

A cold front will move through Alabama on New Year’s Eve, bringing cold northerly winds to the state by New Year’s Day. Temperatures will fall into the mid 30s, and then struggle to reach 40 even in the daytime over the weekend with north winds producing wind chills in the 20s.
But, that’s only the beginning. All 4 major computer models (the GFS, Canadian, European, and NOGAPS) agree that a large upper-level low will form and cut-off over the Midwest or Northeast US next week, keeping a steady parade of cold fronts reinforcing the cold air over Alabama, and making it even colder (forecast below). This whole process, on the large scale, is related to the negative Arctic Oscillation we have been in for much of December, and it looks like we will stay in going into January.
The AO (Arctic Oscillation) has been thrown around a lot this year, so I’ll try to explain it a little bit. Basically, the AO is negative when surface pressures over the Arctic are above normal and pressures over mid-latitudes are below normal, allowing Arctic air to more readily push southward into North America and Europe, but leaving places like Greenland warmer than normal. The AO is positive when pressures are lower in the Arctic, not as conducive to the flow of cold air south.
The height of the 500 mb pressure surface, and its deviation from normal, is a good indicator of abnormally warm and cold areas, especially in the winter. Take a look at a loop of 500 mb heights and departures from normal over the Northern Hemisphere for the past 30 days. Notice the warmer than normal air moving around places like Alaska, Greenland, and Hudson Bay, with colder than normal air farther south in the USA and Europe, as the cold Arctic air moves south.

(NOAA)
The AO oscillates between positive and negative, of course, but there have only been a few times since 1980 when the AO has been this low over a 3-month period.

(NOAA)
The low AO in mid-December was accompanied by things like a rare snowstorm from Houston into Louisiana and Misssippi on Dec 4, with a dusting of snow in Alabama on December 5. Also, extreme cold moved into much of Europe. Take a look at the AO since Aug 31, and its forecast through mid January. Ensemble models indicate it’s going very negative again. Also notice that the models have had a positive bias on the AO, so it may be even worse than anticipated by ensembles.

(NOAA)
So, back to the forecast. With a blocking warm anomaly over Greenland, the models are in good agreement on the large upper low mentioned earlier, keeping cold northerly winds blowing from the Arctic, where there has been little to no sun now for weeks, into Alabama. Take a look at the GFS forecast surface map for next Monday evening. Our air is coming from the Arctic Ocean.

And, with a dense snow pack over the northern US, the air won’t have a chance to modify much on its way here.

The models have been fairly consistent, between each other and from one run to the next. Here is a 9-day forecast of high and low temperatures for BHM, based mainly on raw surface temperature forecasts from the GFS, European, and Canadian models. I used the 00Z and 12Z runs, and weighted the averages 30/70. Cold.

Note the highs only in the mid 30s next week, with lows in the lower to mid 20s. This kind of weather can burst pipes, so prepare for that. Also think about how to keep your pets warm, and check on the elderly starting this weekend and be sure they have an adequate, safe source of warmth. The GFS model for the following week (really getting out there) indicates that it will get even colder…with single digits possible in Alabama. But, that’s a long way off.
I know people are wondering about snow. We could see a few snow flurries on New Year’s Day, and the Canadian model indicates a snow storm for central Alabama around the middle of next week. But, the GFS and European models indicate that the cold air will push the storm track out into the Gulf, keeping snow near to the coast. With the El Nino cycle in place also, we’ll have to watch that.

[HarvestMoon]

[size="5"]Major northern hemisphere cold snap coming[/size]

Cold event setups in atmospheric circulation patterns are aligning. Two days ago I brought to your attention that there was a strong downspike in the Arctic Oscillation Index and that the North Atlantic Oscillation Index was also negative. See The Arctic Oscillation Index goes strongly negative

Yesterday, Senior AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi let loose with this stunning prediction on the AccuWeather premium web site via Brett Anderson’s Global warming blog:

[INDENT]What is facing the major population centers of the northern hemisphere is unlike anything that we have seen since the global warming debate got to the absurd level it is now, which essentially has been there is no doubt about all this. For cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.[/INDENT]





http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/30/ma...more-14651