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Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
01-03-2010, 01:55 AM
Post: #21
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
From Bill Murray

Quote:No real changes in the thinking.
With each consistent model run, our confidence increases that this will be a very severe cold event with the chance of a significant snow thrown in for Thursday.
From the 0z run of the GFS…fresh off the press…
Thursday noon:
[Image: gfs_ten_114s-sun-jan-3-0z.gif]
1014 mb low near New Orleans. We are near freezing in the I-59 corridor. Snow is about to begin in earnest across Central Alabama.
[Image: gfs_ten_120s-sun-jan-3-0z.gif]
Somewhere between 0.25-0.50 inches of water equivalent between noon and 6 p.m. Using a ratio of 14:1, that’s between 3.5 and 7 inches of snow for parts of the area. Throw in a little before noon and another inch of two during the overnight from snow showers, and we could have a significant snow across Central Alabama.
[Image: gfs_ten_126s-sun-jan-3-0z.gif]
MODEL COMPARISON
The 12z run of the European is slower with the system, bringing it in Thursday night, with the heaviest snow north of along and north of I-20 (about same amounts). I could see folks stranded at BCS parties Thursday night in a worst case scenario. But we will have plenty of time to worry about that.
Now I caution everyone… a lot could go wrong with this forecast. This system is a long way off. But the more consistent depictions we see of this scenario gives us increasing confidence to up snow chances and the possibility of accumulation.
We always show our work here.
For those who will say we are hyping another snow event…it’s not hype when we tell you what we think, show you why and let you interpret along with us. Bottom line, it is a snow event that bears watching, because it makes sense from a synoptic standpoint, we have cold like we have not seen in a long time and it could be disruptive to travel, school and business on Thursday, Friday and into the weekend. We want our audience to have the most possible time to prepare for whatever we are forecasting, whether it is extreme cold, a snowstorm, severe weather or a hurricane. It’s why we do what we do for the best weather audience in the world.
As we look at the possibility of snow, I don’t want you to forget the extreme and dangerous cold, both before and after Thursday. Some notes:
…Central Alabama may not see 40F again until January 13th…and maybe not until January 16th!
…Parts of the Tennessee Valley may not get above freezing except for a few hours in the next two weeks!
…We could be flirting with zero next Saturday and Sunday morning if we get a snow cover. Single digits look inevitable.
Stay warm, be safe, and think of others…

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01-03-2010, 07:59 AM
Post: #22
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
NWS JACKSON,MS

Quote:HERE IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AND THEN SHIFT TO VERY COLD AS
THE ARCTIC PLUNGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL
DIVE S WITHIN THE NW FLOW AND PHASE WITH THE DUMBBELL POLAR VORTEX
AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS STRONG S/W WILL
INCITE A SFC WAVE ALONG THE N GULF. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIP LATE WED NIGHT AND INTO THUR. DETAILS ARE AS
EXPECTED...SKETCHY...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF
THE CWA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS
SEEING SOME SORT OF MIX. THINGS COULD START AS A COLD RAIN THEN
BECOME ALL SNOW OR THERE COULD BE A REGION OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN A
SHIFT TO SNOW OR IT COULD JUST BE ALL SNOW. I WON`T GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE DETAILS SINCE IT IS 5 DAYS OUT AS I EXPECT THE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION WE NEED TO DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE WILL CHANGE/SHIFT WITH
EACH MODEL RUN. WHAT I DO KNOW IS IT WILL BE COLD WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING COLDER AS WE HEAD INTO FRI. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND FACT
THAT I FEEL CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE PRECIP FALLING AND EVAP COOLING
GOING ON AT SOME POINT...I HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THU. THE NW/N AREAS
COULD EASILY STAY BELOW 30-32 DEGREES WITH CENTRAL SECTIONS NOT EVEN
REACHING 34-35 DEGREES. AS FOR THE S...THEY SHOULD BE COLD AS WELL
WITH UPPER 30S LIKELY BEING TOUGH TO COME BY AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...I WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATION...BUT
NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY JUST YET.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE ARCTIC AIR SURGE
FOR FRI AND CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH. BOTH THE GFS/EURO AND GFS
ENSEMBLE ARE SHOWING 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -10 AND -16C WITH 850MB
TEMPS IN THE -9 TO -13C RANGE. THIS IS SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO VALUES AND FITS ANALOG CASES FROM THE PAST
20-30 YRS WHERE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WERE OBSERVED. EXTENDED MOS
GUID WAS MUCH COLDER AND BETTER THAN PREV EFFORTS...BUT STILL IS
LIKELY NOT COLD ENOUGH DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF CLIMO IN THE MOS. AS
A RESULT...I HAVE CONTINUE TO CUT TEMPS BOTH IN LOWS AND HIGHS.
THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT MY CUTS ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH...BUT IT IS JUST
TOUGH TO FORECAST SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS AND HIGHS BELOW 30-32 THAT
FAR OUT. THIS COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE PROLONGED WITH EVEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC POSSIBLE BY SUN/MON. I WILL BE AGGRESSIVE
WITH TEMPS IN THE FORECAST BUT NOT GET TOO CRAZY. AS FOR ANY
IMPACTS...LOOK FOR HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS TO BE MET DURING THIS TIME
WITH SUCH PRODUCTS ISSUED LATER IN THE WEEK. /CME/

&&

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01-03-2010, 08:15 AM
Post: #23
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
06Z


[Image: gfs_pcp_102s.gif]
[Image: gfs_pcp_108s.gif]
[Image: gfs_pcp_114s.gif]
[Image: gfs_pcp_120s.gif]
[Image: gfs_pcp_126s.gif]
Total QPF:
[Image: gfs_p60_138s.gif]

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01-03-2010, 08:16 AM
Post: #24
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
Memphis,NWS

Quote:CURRENTLY THE GFS TRACKS THE CENTER FURTHER SOUTH
REACHING NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE LOW AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MISSOURI. BOTH MODELS SHOW A GOOD
24 HOURS OF SUBSTANTIAL DIVERGENCE OVER A MORE SOUTHERLY FETCH OF
GULF MOISTURE. WITH THIS BEING SAID...MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES
AND THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS SHOWS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPFS OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI WHERE A INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. IF THAT PANS OUT...UPPER FRONTOGENESIS MAY MAKE FOR
WARNING ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN CWA
COUNTIES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT

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01-03-2010, 08:17 AM
Post: #25
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
Knoxville,TN

Quote:.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NW FLOW TYPE SNOWFALL
EVENT SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND COLD UPPER LOW OFF NE COAST. ARCTIC AIR KEEPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS AND SW VA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY
AND SUNNY AS SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES INTO TN VALLEY. A SIGNIFICANT
SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS TRACKS A LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST THURSDAY AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SKIES BEGIN CLEARING SATURDAY.
GFS SHOWS 48 HOUR SNOWFALL MAY BE 6 TO 8 INCHES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
NEED TO WATCH FURTHER MODEL RUNS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WATCH BY
MONDAY FOR SNOW THURSDAY.

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01-03-2010, 08:18 AM
Post: #26
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
Atlanta

Quote:.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT WARMER AIRMASS BEGINS TO REPLACE THE PERSISTENT COLD
ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST
NEARS. THE RIDGE MOVES OVERTOP GEORGIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL
MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE TN/OH
VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY. MODELS WAVERING ON
EXTENT OF SOUTHERN STREAM CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AT THE SAME TIME... AS WELL AS THE EXTENT OF INTERACTION
BETWEEN THIS AND THE NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR THESE DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT BY SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
IN ORDER TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH WINTRY WEATHER WE WILL HAVE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW POTENTIAL IS STEADILY INCREASING FOR NORTH GA
AS PREEXISTING AIRMASS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND DRY.

ANOTHER BLAST OF REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

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01-03-2010, 08:21 AM
Post: #27
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
Columbus, MS - 6.1"
Tupelo, MS - 8.2"
Memphis - 6.4"
Tuscaloosa, AL - 1.0" snow, 0.61" sleet, 0.02" freezing rain
Birmingham, AL - 2.0" snow, 0.26" sleet, 0.04" freezing rain
Huntsville, AL - 8.0" snow

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01-03-2010, 08:22 AM
Post: #28
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
Precip is increasing with each model run

<img src="http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/1a83493c.png">

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01-03-2010, 08:23 AM
Post: #29
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
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01-03-2010, 09:37 AM
Post: #30
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
Mobile
Quote:THURSDAY STILL LOOKS VERY INTERESTING...MESSY...AND COMPLICATED. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL CANADA WHICH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOWER MS
VALLEY BY THURSDAY. WHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SFC LOW OR
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MOVING EAST ON
THURSDAY...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THE LOW GETS
AND HOW FAR NORTH IT TRACKS. CONSIDERING WE WILL HAVE A LINGERING COLD
AND DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION...THE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES WHERE THE POSSIBILITY
OF WINTER WEATHER HAS TO BE CONSIDERED. THE 00Z GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE LOW...SUGGESTING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ACTUALLY LOOKS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF. A MORE SUPPRESSED LOW TRACK CERTAINLY MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MORE AMPLIFIED AS
THE 00Z GFS INDICATES. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LEADS US TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WE BRING THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LINE
FURTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. AGAIN...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AS THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK BEGINS TO BETTER SAMPLE
THE SHORTWAVE IN QUESTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

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