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Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
12-30-2009, 07:23 AM
Post: #11
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
A chance of snow in New Orleans?

N.O. NWS long range this morning:
Quote:.LONG TERM...
A STRONG POLAR AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
MOVE EAST. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT TIMING PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW
IS GOING TO MEAN EVERYTHING WITH THE FCAST STARTING THE NEW WEEK.
HAVE SET A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING TO MAINLY SHOW CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG WITH
THIS SYSTEM ATTM AND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
REGARDS TO MASS FIELDS. WE DO NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
POINT WITH POP NUMBERS DUE TO THE SHIFTING FROM VERY DRY IN ONE
RUN TO SNOW STORM IN ANOTHER. THIS SCENARIO WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE
TO BE EVALUATED FURTHER AS WE APPROACH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FCAST.

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12-30-2009, 09:38 AM
Post: #12
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
Kmob

Quote:ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES FRI AFT THROUGH SUN BECOMING REINFORCED BY MORE COLD AIR TO
THE NORTH LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MOVES SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF MAIN TROF OFF THE EAST COAST. TO THE
SOUTH THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH WAS NOTED BY
EARLIER MODEL RUNS NOW LOOKS TO BE NOTHING BUT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DAMPING QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT UPON THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES RESULTING IN MAYBE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO EARLY MON MOSTLY INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST INITIALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST BY MON EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE FIRST HARD FREEZE FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA TUE AND WED MORNING. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALSO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. AS
FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED PDS...BASICALLY LOADED THE CURRENT 00Z MOS
GUIDE AND TWEAKED IT DOWNWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

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12-30-2009, 10:18 PM
Post: #13
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
Let me ask what the 540 Line represents as far as temperature range is concerned?

It obviously represents cold air, but how cold and thus what is the subsequent numbers such as 560-580 or 520-500 represent?
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12-30-2009, 11:53 PM
Post: #14
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
ChessieStorm Wrote:Let me ask what the 540 Line represents as far as temperature range is concerned?

It obviously represents cold air, but how cold and thus what is the subsequent numbers such as 560-580 or 520-500 represent?

To the best of my Knowledge. 540, is like 5400 Meters above the ground. The higher you go, (5600, 5800) The higher the atmosphere is at the 500MB level. Usually, that means warmer temperatures the higher your heights are. Youll see ridges with higher heighs and troughs when you have a deep sinking in the air. 560-580, 520-500 are just different heights. Add another Zero and youll have how high the 500mb is in Meters. The weather men measure heights in Milibars, Its easier that way because the actual height of any given place in the atmosphere could change any day. As far as how cold the air is going to be, Honestly I couldent tell you. I believe they integrate Model forecasts along with this kind of data and Observations to determine just how cold it will get. But, Like I said earlier. When your upper-air is sinking really low, the temperatures really drop.

Ive never gone to College, So im not an expert. You may know more and hopefully will correct me if im wrong, but Basically. When you see a deep trof like that, and your blue line dipping down south. Youve got some cold weather on the way.
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12-31-2009, 05:16 PM
Post: #15
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
The 3 o'clock Disco from Lk Charles NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 PM CST THU DEC 31 2009

Quote:
[COLOR="Red"]EQUIPMENT

KLCH RADAR WILL BE OUT DUE TO A FAULTY BLOWER BEARING. REPLACEMENT
PART EXPECTED SATURDAY 01/02/2010. [/COLOR]


DISCUSSION

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ENTIRE AREA CLEARING OUT...EXCEPT
SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OUT
20NM...WHERE DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUD BANK CONTINUES BUT THINNING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE CLEARING WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS THE OVC DECK FROM NE TX IS
ABOUT TO INVADE THE LAKES REGION OF INLAND SE TX THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT QUICK CLIPPER. KPOE RADAR ALREADY SHOWING LIGHT
-RA OVER NE TX FROM JSO...TYR...GGG...SHV. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT GAINING MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT LIFT. WENT 50% ACROSS SE
TX AND COASTAL WATERS...WITH 60-70% ACROSS LA DUE TO BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT. PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING FROM W TO E BETWEEN
06-09Z FRI...WITH CLEARING SKIES TO FOLLOW ON NEW YEARS DAY.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA TO THE LOWER
40S FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.

[COLOR="Blue"]WHAT WILL FOLLOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE A DEEP LAYER TROF OVER
THE MS VALLEY WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/EASTERN
CANADA. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN USUALLY LEAVES THE ARCTIC DOOR OPEN
TO CONTINUOUS INVASIONS OF FRIGED ARCTIC AIR. INDEED THIS IS WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLANES WILL BE EXPERIENCING. THERE'S NO QUESTION WE
WILL BE SEEING A TASTE OF THIS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE REAL
FORECAST PROBLEMS COME WITH THE NEXT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO
AFFECT THE REGION WED/THU AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND OF COURSE HOW FAR SOUTH THE BULK OF THE
FRIGED AIR SPILLS. MODERATION (OR LACK OF) THE AIRMASS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOWCOVER REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. [/COLOR]


DML

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01-01-2010, 05:53 AM
Post: #16
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
KMOB

Quote:A POTENTIALLY VERY INTERESTING SITUATION DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS...GEFS...AND ECWMF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH HELPS TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WHICH MOVES
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR IN
PLACE PRIOR TO THIS LOW...THE EXACT TRACK WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR WEATHER. THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN SHOW A MORE
SUPPRESSED TRACK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COMPARED TO THE GFS. A
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION DOES MAKE SENSE WITH THE SFC RIDGING AND AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR PRECEDING THE LOW WHICH HELPS TO SHIFT THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION...THEN THERE WOULD
BE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. IF
A 00Z GFS TRACK WITH THE LOW FURTHER NORTH HAPPENED...THEN WE WOULD
BE LOOKING AT MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. OUT OF RESPECT OF THE ECMWF AND
ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER NORTHERN ZONES WED NIGHT...BUT CAPPED POPS AT
30 PERCENT. A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN THEN CARRIES INTO THURSDAY AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM. SINCE THIS IS STILL 6 DAYS OUT...A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE GUIDANCE TO CHANGE
ITS TUNE. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS BEEN STEADFAST IN SHOWING A LOW
FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW AND IS GAINING SUPPORT OF OTHER MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE. STAY TUNED. 34/JFB

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01-01-2010, 10:30 AM
Post: #17
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
Bring it on baby. I saw that one of the local mets here in Lafayette if calling for a low of 25 for Friday morning and a high of 39. Looks like I will be breaking ice in the duck pond on Saturday morning!

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01-01-2010, 10:54 AM
Post: #18
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
Just looked at my forecast for the Spring Hill area. Predicted lows for Saturday, Sunday and Monday night -- mid to upper 20's.

Figures I'm in West Virginia preparing to go back home this coming Monday and I can't cover my plants.
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01-01-2010, 06:55 PM
Post: #19
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
James Spann



Quote:Getting Back In The Saddle

January 1, 2010, 5:20 pm | "[email protected]" | Forecast Discussion
I sure appreciate the time off this week… I run from 4:52 a.m. weekdays until almost midnight, and at my ripe old age it doesn’t come as easy as it did when I was in my 20s. But, I still have a love and passion for weather that has never faded. A few days with 8 hours of sleep, some quality time with family, no shaving or worries about my appearance, and I am good to go.
After an overdose of football today; I thought I would fire up the MacBook Pro and take a look at the Alabama weather situation I will face when I officially come back Monday.
The screaming message is the cold. I think this tidbit from the Birmingham NWS this afternoon is very interesting…
AS OF TODAY…WE ARE EXPECTING MORNING LOWS OF 25 DEGREES OR LESS AT BIRMINGHAM THROUGH THE WEEK…INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 25 DEGREES AT BIRMINGHAM IS ELEVEN…SET IN JANUARY OF 1940…WE COULD CHALLENGE THAT RECORD OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS. ADDITIONALLY…THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS BELOW 20 DEGREES IS SEVEN…SET IN 1899. THAT RECORD LOOKS SAFE FOR NOW.
Bottom line is that we all need to be prepared for an extended period of very cold weather. MOS products (model output statistics) will perform horribly; the true nature of the Arctic air coming over a vast snow pack over the North American continent is something the models can’t handle. The GFS is printing 16 both Monday and Tuesday morning; actual lows will be in the 10 to 15 degree range, with single digits for the colder valleys.
SNOW? Still voodoo here, but global models paint a chance of some snow here late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. No doubt it will be cold enough; see the critical thickness values below (from the 18Z GFS):
[Image: CONUS_GFS_WINTER_CRITICALTHK_138HR-600x459.gif]
Below you can see output Thursday morning from the GFS (18Z run), and the ECMWF (12Z run)…
[Image: Screen-shot-2010-01-01-at-5.23.58-PM-600x460.png]
[Image: CONUS_GFS_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_138HR-600x458.gif]
No way to be specific with this until Sunday night or Monday morning… over the weekend we simply wait and watch.
Thanks to J.B. Elliott, Bill Murray, Brian Peters, Ashley Brand, and Jason Simpson for covering duties for me this week. I will be fully back on the grid Monday morning. In the meantime, I will enjoy watching Bill Castle and Scott Forrester cruise to California. That stretch of I-20 they drove today from Birmingham to Dallas/Fort Worth is very familiar to me since I used to work at KDFW-TV in Dallas in the mid 80s and drove that highway so many times. Now our guys are west of Fort Worth… it will be interesting to see how far they go tonight. Knowing Bill, they might be in New Mexico before they catch a nap!

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01-02-2010, 10:25 AM
Post: #20
Potential Flurries/1/7/10 - FL SNOW 1/9/10
[Image: image4.gif]

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