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Snow on or near Christmas in the South
12-10-2009, 11:19 AM
Post: #1
Snow on or near Christmas in the South
I had noticed very cold air down here before Christmas and on Christmas with light snow down into the deep south per the GFS
. Saw this from James Spann:
Quote:you will see the AO (Arctic Oscillation) spiking negative during the latter half of the month, and sure enough the GFS shows a major Arctic blast here around Dec 19-22, with some potential for a Southeast U.S. snow storm after the arrival of the cold air. Yep, this is all voodoo, but the pattern certainly supports the idea. Stay tuned.
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12-10-2009, 11:23 AM
Post: #2
Snow on or near Christmas in the South
right now the cold air really starts to pour in around Dec. 20-22
[Image: gfs_slp_264s.gif]
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12-10-2009, 12:19 PM
Post: #3
Snow on or near Christmas in the South
I saw that too. A cold Christmas is always nice and Sneaux thrown into the mix is even better. But like Jame Spann says that is out in Voodoo land.

Another GOM Nor'easter would be nice!!!

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12-10-2009, 01:56 PM
Post: #4
Snow on or near Christmas in the South
Local Met Rob Perillo hints at some possible mix Precip Dec 18-20 time frame:


[SIZE="4"]KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG[/SIZE]
[SIZE="3"]Cool and Dry Thursday…Getting Wet Late Friday
[/SIZE]

l
Acadiana’s weather pattern will stay decidedlyon the cool side and dry through Friday morning. Breezy and cold conditions are on tap for tonight with north winds ushering our temperatures down into the mid-30s for morning. Wind chills tomorrow morning should be in the mid-upper 30s so bundle up! Thursday will bring partly sunny skies accented by in and out high cirrus cloud cover. Temperatures should top out in the lower 50s Thursday. The high clouds will likely increase and thicken Thursday night with cloudy and cool conditions likely for most if not all of Friday. Patchy light rain and/or drizzle will develop Friday afternoon with steadier rain likely for Friday night into early Saturday. The next developing Gulf system will be slow to move so rain chances have been pushed well into Saturday, but hopefully drier conditions will move in for Saturday night. At this point though I do not expect much if any sun on Saturday. Behind this next system there will not be any cold air advection so I expect partly sunny and mild conditions for our Sunday. Unfortunately, yet another wet-weather system will arrive for Monday/Tuesday of next week. Rain totals with the Friday/Saturday system should be in the 1-1.5 inch range, especially along the coastal parishes (who need the moisture the least). Monday/Tuesday’s weather system should be capable of heavier showers and perhaps embedded storms so another 2-3″ rain or more will be possible then. Of note, these El Nino “enhanced” weather systems have been regularly coming in wetter than advertised by the models so flood issues may arise again, especially for early next week. [i]Interestingly enough, some pretty cold weather may surge southward mid-late next week just in time for another developing low in the Gulf for next Friday. This system could lead to a wintry mix close to home with perhaps a decent shot of arctic air the following weekend. Stay tuned![/i]

Written by Rob Perillo

December 9th, 2009 at 7:16 pm

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12-11-2009, 08:40 AM
Post: #5
Snow on or near Christmas in the South
Timing will tell. Artic air can be troublesome. While it can bring snow, it can, also, bring single digit nights in the deep South, which the South wasn't designed for.
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12-11-2009, 09:30 AM
Post: #6
Snow on or near Christmas in the South
jess Wrote:Timing will tell. Artic air can be troublesome. While it can bring snow, it can, also, bring single digit nights in the deep South, which the South wasn't designed for.

That is when my duck huntin is the best!!!

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12-11-2009, 11:40 AM
Post: #7
Snow on or near Christmas in the South
Christmas eve snow for Texas has been shown consistently
EDIT: time sensitive map so removed it
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12-13-2009, 06:43 AM
Post: #8
Snow on or near Christmas in the South
Of course, that 540 line is always just north of us, here on the south shore (Houma, Thibodaux, New Orleans..) Sad

Travis

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12-13-2009, 12:47 PM
Post: #9
Snow on or near Christmas in the South
a clipper could bring some snow showers on Christmas morning around here. GFS has been pretty consistent on this idea
[Image: gfs_slp_288s.gif]
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12-14-2009, 08:51 AM
Post: #10
Snow on or near Christmas in the South
“Storm chances next weekend depend on subtleties”
Get ready for a wild week in the world of weather modeling as we will likely see a Greenland Block form in the western variant of the negative NAO phase which will greatly increase the risk of a significant winter storm for the southern and eastern US or perhaps the Ohio Valley/Lakes.

In glancing at the models this morning, it is clear that the exact placement of the strong 500mb low forecast to be over eastern Canada will be key to whether or not we can pop a storm. The models that do pop a storm show this 500mb further to the east near Newfoundland, shown here by the 00z GFS 168 hour frame. This has support from the parallel version of the GFS, the GFS Ensembles, the ECMWF Ensembles, the GGEM, and the GGEM Ensembles.
[Image: gfs%2812%29.jpg]
The other solution is that this 500mb low is further west, shown by the 00z ECMWF which allows for more stream interaction further to the west and thus more of a Miller B and Ohio Valley/Midwest event and not so much for the southeast or mid-Atlantic.
[Image: ECMWF%285%29.jpg]
Right now there is more modeling support for the 1st option, and the presence if real of the Greenland Block and the ridging out west tend to support a further east 500mb low in eastern Canada and thus a more supportive pattern for a major east coast wintery storm in the 12/20-12/22 time frame. The block migrates west a big during Christmas week and we could have another storm shortly after Christmas in the 12/26-12/28 time frame.

So we have a very fun pattern coming up to track and many of us could get in the fun. Stay tuned.

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