Snow on or near Christmas in the South

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Accueweather

Quote:The Christmas Snowstorm of 2009
The headline for this story could represent the first part of a sentence that ends with "is by no means certain." The GFS operational run (the one that is most widely used for operational forecasting, even though the same model can be run many times to see alternative scenarios or to generate ensemble means) from 7 p.m. EST last night suggests cold, dry weather for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in the I95 corridor and widespread snow showers from the Great Lakes into the Appalachians. I should point out here that writers should avoid really long sentences. Also, we should avoid cliches. I won't touch them with a 10-foot pole and avoid them like the plague. The GFS run made 6 hours later shows a major snowstorm from Oklahoma to western North Carolina, then up along the I95 corridor from Washington to Boston. The two runs are shown in this video:

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[Kelly_Jernigan]

From the Austin/San Antonio NWS....

Quote:A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AT
THE SAME TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIRMASS HAS A
CHANCE TO BUILD IN. THUS..COOL WITH SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS EVE. AT
FIRST GLANCE..CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS DRY BUT COLD. HOWEVER..IF THIS
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND DIGS FURTHER SOUTH..CHRISTMAS DAY COULD BE
INTERESTING.

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[GingerStorm]

1 to 3 inches of snow is being predicted in Charlotte for tomorrow night

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12z NAM:
Friday Morning...(cold rain moving in)

Friday Lunchtime: ( Thicknesses already crashing across East Tennessee)

Friday Evening: (Thicknesses really crash through all of N GA down into Alabama) again no soundings so dont know what exact precip type

Friday Night: (Precip ending as thicknesses remain cold)

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Looking good for some snow Sat in the Carolinas

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Atlanta NWS

Quote:000
FXUS62 KFFC 171039
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING TODAY EXCEPT FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING FRIDAY
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...
SE GA/N FL FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

IT COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVER PARTS OF N GA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND GENERALLY
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO A COLD AIRMASS AND EXPECTED HIGH CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY FAVORING THE
LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY ON SATURDAY...A COLD LOWER AND UPPER
FLOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. SMALLER CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS N GA
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL AS A SHORT WAVE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW COLD IT
ACTUALLY DOES GET AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE. MODEL HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM FOR SATURDAY AND GENERALLY WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE. SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER N GA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME.
GFS/EUROPEAN RETURN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY.
0

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Memphis,TN

Quote:LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LATEST 00Z LONG
RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL REX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.
DESPITE LARGE VARIANCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPE
ISSUES MAY BECOME A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE. STAY TUNED...

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