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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
11-02-2009, 06:13 AM
Post: #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
Looks like something is trying to brew.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Though it doesn't have any obvious circulation right now.

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11-02-2009, 06:50 AM
Post: #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
KMOB

Quote:AT THE MOMENT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A SMALL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF IS INDICATED FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK MOVING NORTHEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE WOULD SEE POPS RISING MONDAY SHOULD SUBSEQUENT MODEL
OUTPUTS CONVERGE TO THIS SCENARIO...SO A CONTINUED FOCUS ON THAT
WOULD BE TAKEN IN FORECASTS SUBSEQUENT TO THIS ONE...WITH OR WITHOUT
A CHANGE IN THE ACTUAL FORECAST.
/77

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11-02-2009, 07:06 AM
Post: #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
7AM

Quote:GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM
NEAR 25N81W ALONG 24N85W 23N92W BECOMING WARM ALONG 21N94W TO
18N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 90W-94W. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO TO NEAR
16N100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SRN GULF WITH AXIS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE NW PORTION OF GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE N. EXPECT THE FRONT
TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND IT
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

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11-02-2009, 09:18 AM
Post: #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
The local mets have been talking about this since Sunday morning. They are saying it might influence our weather on or about Friday - Saturday of this week.

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11-02-2009, 10:59 AM
Post: #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
Tropical discussion by Rob Lightbown:

Quote:Possible Western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Development Late This Week Into Next Week:

The various model guidance including the GFS, NAM, Canadian and European models are all pointing to some sort of tropical cyclone development in either the western Caribbean or the Bay of Campeche late this week or this weekend. This has been a scenario that the model guidance has been hinting at on and off for at least the past week or so and I think it is something that really merits our attention.

The model guidance and their ensemble members are now showing good continuity with a northward tracking tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend into the first half of next week. If the model guidance turns out being correct, it would be a very unique situation for November both in the area it forms (Bay of Campeche late this week into early this weekend) and its potential track in the central and western Gulf of Mexico. The model guidance differ on where they track this potential tropical system: The GFS model forecasts that it will track onshore into the central or eastern Gulf coast around Veterans’ Day. The Canadian model forecasts that this system will track onshore into the central Gulf coast next Monday. The European model forecasts it will track onshore into the western Gulf coast next Monday.

Now, let’s take a step back and look at this without looking at the model guidance and see why the model guidance may be onto something: During October we had a high pressure pattern over the eastern United States that caused moisture in the western Caribbean to be pushed westward into Central America. In addition, the high pressure pattern during October caused subsidence and dry air over the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico preventing tropical development.

Now, as of this morning, we have shifted into a weather pattern of strong vigorous troughs of low pressure pushing into the eastern United States. These troughs are causing the northward movement of any moisture in the southwest Caribbean and keeping the moisture and energy associated with these western Caribbean disturbances around longer. In addition, it also causes the formation of high pressure systems in the upper levels (Above 18,000 feet) which helps ventilate tropical systems and cause them to intensify. All of these factors are now showing up in the model guidance, including decreasing surface pressures in the western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico and a favorable upper level environment late this week into this weekend in these areas.

So, based on all of this, my opinion is that we really need to watch the western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche as the week rolls on. It appears that the trigger for this tropical development to happen is a high pressure system that will track eastward into the eastern United States behind a frontal system and low pressure development off of the New England coast on Thursday and Friday. This high pressure system will help bundle the energy and lower surface pressures in the western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico late this week and this weekend. Needless to say, I will be watching this entire situation very closely this week and will keep you all updated.

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11-02-2009, 01:49 PM
Post: #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
1PM

Quote:AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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11-02-2009, 04:17 PM
Post: #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
yawn...
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11-02-2009, 07:48 PM
Post: #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
7pm

Quote:SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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11-03-2009, 01:27 AM
Post: #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
1am

Quote:BNT20 KNHC 030543
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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11-03-2009, 06:55 AM
Post: #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
Code Orange

Quote:00
ABNT20 KNHC 031150
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF COSTA
RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Image: atl_overview.gif]

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