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Severe weather 10/22/09-10/23/09
10-20-2009, 07:03 AM
Post: #1
Severe weather 10/22/09-10/23/09
Quote:DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT FARTHER S -- ACROSS THE S CENTRAL STATES -- WILL LIKELY BE
HINDERED...AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE IS PROGGED INVOF OK
LATE IN RESPONSE TO LAGGING EJECTION OF SRN STREAM UPPER ENERGY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...EXPECT UPPER RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL.

...S TX/SERN OK/SWRN AR/WRN LA...
DESPITE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW/MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
ONGOING/ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX. WHILE ENHANCED
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCY SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN 5% RISK AREA FROM SRN OK SWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX/WRN LA AND INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION
-- WHERE EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED.

..GOSS.. 10/20/2009

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10-20-2009, 08:47 AM
Post: #2
Severe weather 10/22/09-10/23/09
Another night time frontal passage. Doggit, I hate chasing at midnight ;-)

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10-20-2009, 09:32 AM
Post: #3
Severe weather 10/22/09-10/23/09
Joe-Nathan Wrote:Another night time frontal passage. Doggit, I hate chasing at midnight ;-)

This may be more of a severe weather threat than the guys at the SPC are thinking. Plenty of shear now we just need things to come together. We should see at least a 2% tornado risk for Friday.

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10-20-2009, 09:39 AM
Post: #4
Severe weather 10/22/09-10/23/09
ROLLTIDE Wrote:This may be more of a severe weather threat than the guys at the SPC are thinking. Plenty of shear now we just need things to come together. We should see at least a 2% tornado risk for Friday.

Terry whats your take on this?
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10-20-2009, 09:45 AM
Post: #5
Severe weather 10/22/09-10/23/09
ROLLTIDE Wrote:This may be more of a severe weather threat than the guys at the SPC are thinking. Plenty of shear now we just need things to come together. We should see at least a 2% tornado risk for Friday.

I am sure all that moisture from Rick will help make things real soupy. You are going to have winds at the surface coming out of the south, winds aloft will be out of the WSW and a trough digging down from the north.

Yup, it is going be one of those nights for us in SW LA were the weather radio will be screaming!!!!

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10-20-2009, 10:47 AM
Post: #6
Severe weather 10/22/09-10/23/09
Heavy rain again for parts of the south
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10-20-2009, 11:38 AM
Post: #7
Severe weather 10/22/09-10/23/09
KMOB

Quote:..A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
BAND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR AHEAD THE
COLD FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL HEAVY RAINS DUE TO THE
SLOW NATURE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. CURRENT TIMING HAS THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT

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10-20-2009, 01:24 PM
Post: #8
Severe weather 10/22/09-10/23/09
nightrider Wrote:Terry whats your take on this?

I dont know, man. I thought it looked okay earlier this week, but now it doesnt look very good. The dynamics are still there (shear, lift) but as typical for this time of year, the moisture quality is poor and instability is at a minimum. There is no disputing the fact that it is an awesome looking system, but i worry that it may just become a big rain maker for the south. I think any severe storms we see will be confined within 300MI of the coast where instability will be present. Still, the instability profiles ATTM are marginal, I.E. 250-850j/kg.

Day 1 Today is in AZ/NM. There may be some decent storms out there, i believe a Severe watch is out.

Day 2 Im still a little hopefull for. Not alot of instability, but i think we still may see something in the central plains.

Day 3 Is a little far out. Itll be best to see how Day 1 and 2 pan out and the runs become more consistant.

[Image: gfsUS_0_30mb_dewp_54.gif]

Moisture is there, but instability sucks. EHIs are in the 0.25-0.5 range for LA and the Gulf Coast. Consider the last event i chased (10-09) had EHIs in the 2.5-3.5 range.

[Image: NAM_221_2009102012_F54_CAPE_180_0_M.png]

I still think we may see a weak squall line along the leading edge of the front, but overall just some heavy rain. Here you can see the trough. Follow the wind barbs, youll see theyve got a cyclonic curve to them. Its not uncommon to have 0-1KM helicites in the 450+ range with systems like this, but without any instability that stuff is useless.

[Image: nam_500mb_wind_f51.gif]
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10-20-2009, 01:51 PM
Post: #9
Severe weather 10/22/09-10/23/09
... KMOB HWO

Quote: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED CASES OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL OR TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER PATTERN.

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10-21-2009, 07:29 AM
Post: #10
Severe weather 10/22/09-10/23/09
Day 2

Quote:AY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE EMBEDDED UPPER LOW INVOF KS EARLY PROGGED TO
WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING ENEWD INTO IA/MO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE MID MO VALLEY
LATE...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES OK/TX/AR THROUGH THE
DAY...AND THEN REACHES THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION BY 23/12Z.


...S CENTRAL U.S. CENTERED ON THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
S CENTRAL CONUS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
DESPITE A MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION...DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MODEST DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION -- AT LEAST PARTIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE RICK.

THOUGH THIS LACK OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD LIMIT STORM
INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL...AMPLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS.
THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION TO
COVER LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO. THE LIMITED THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING E OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO MS AND PERHAPS PARTS
OF AL LATE.

..GOSS.. 10/21/2009


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