Austin, TX Local Weather thread

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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 011430
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009

.UPDATE...
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MOISTURE PLUME FROM EASTERN
PACIFIC CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BETWEEN LBB AND ABI. HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATION STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CONTINUED EFFECTS OF
MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE REGION. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

AVIATION...
CIGS 2 THSD TO 3 THSD BKN WILL BECOME 5 THSD SCT TO BKN WITH
HIGHER CLOUDS SCT TO BKN ABOVE 10 THSD FT AFTER 17Z. SCT SHRA FROM
NORTH OF KDRT TO WEST OF KAUS WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR KAUS TO KSAT
THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM FROM THE HILL COUNTRY AND EAST TO LA GRANGE AND HALLETTSVILLE
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 05Z TONIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME CIGS 3 THSD TO 5 THSD BKN WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KECU TO CARRIZO SPRINGS LINE.
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH A COLD FRONT
AFTER 06Z VCNTY KAUS AND VCNTY KSAT AROUND 09Z. BY 12Z
FRIDAY WINDS AT KDRT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY HAVE BECOME
MORE SOLID, SO UPPED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR COUNTIES IN ITS
PATH. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY-
AN INTENSIFYING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY
CAUSING UPPER HEIGHTS TO DROP OVER TEXAS AND SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL DUMP FROM 1/10 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN. UPPER
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING THE
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFTING OVER THE FRONTAL
SLOPE BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. MOIST
FLOW OVER THE FRONT IS AIMED AT THE SOUTHERN FACE OF THE
ESCARPMENT WEST OF SAN ANTONIO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CONTINUOUS RAINS WITH WIDESPREAD ONE INCH AMOUNTS. LITTLE DIURNAL
CHANGE BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-
ANY DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD WILL INCREASE RAINFALL
RATES ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR THIS EPISODE STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
ALL FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A LOCALIZED 5 INCH TOTAL BUT
PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY- A MEAN UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND WINDS
OVER TEXAS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE
MID LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY DECREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY- THE MEAN UPPER TROF SEPARATES INTO A
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW NEAR BAJA AND A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM TROF. THIS WEILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH TEXAS BUT STALLING OUT BEFORE REACHING THE HILL COUNTRY.
SO A RETURN TO MILD SEASONAL TEMPS ARE ON TAP.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

64/53

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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 041142
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PERIODS OF SHRA ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA. HAVE GENERALLY HANDLED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS. SHRA/TSRA
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT ALL SITES AFTER 04-05Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER CHANGES IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND FOR AN EARLY TO MID OCTOBER SETTING. FOR TODAY...TRENDS
FROM YESTERDAY TO EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW WAVE OF S/W ENERGY
COMING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS EARLY OCT. WEATHER PATTERN...
SHOWED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY...FOR AN AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN HOME IN KERR COUNTY TO
HONDO TO PEARSALL. THIS INCLUDES THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR TODAY COULD
CONTINUE FOR PART OF THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY...AS ANOTHER
FALL RAIN MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM COMES ACROSS FROM THE WEST
AGAIN. SHOWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE STORM TRACK GOES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT
EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
WARM AFTERNOONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY A FEW CHANGES IN WEATHER PATTERNS
SHOWS UP AS A STRONG 500 HPA TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY. AS THE STORM TRACK COMES FURTHER SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL MOVE
FASTER...AND BRING WITH IT A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE COLD FRONT
FOR FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND MILD TO WARM DAYTIME HIGHS
NEXT WEEKEND...OCT. 10TH AND 11TH. EXPECT SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT TO TRACK TO THE EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. AS A RESULT
SHOWED MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY...AS DRY AND COOLER AIR SPILLS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT OF THIS COMING WEEKEND TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY OCT. 11.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 67 84 77 91 / 80 50 50 30 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 67 84 74 91 / 80 50 50 30 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 69 86 74 92 / 80 50 50 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 80 65 80 74 89 / 80 50 50 30 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 71 89 76 91 / 70 30 30 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 66 82 74 89 / 80 50 50 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 72 88 75 92 / 80 50 50 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 67 85 74 91 / 80 50 50 30 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 68 86 75 91 / 80 50 50 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 72 86 77 91 / 80 50 50 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 72 88 76 92 / 80 50 50 20 20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

$$

08/25

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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 051807
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
107 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2009

.AVIATION...
A COOL STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM ROCKSPRINGS TO
NEAR HONDO AND EAST TO COLUMBUS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WERE
LIFTING SLOWLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WARMER AIR AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS THINNING CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. I-35 CORRIDOR..
IFR CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME VFR CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TIL SUNSET. IFR CIGS WILL
FORM AGAIN BY MIDNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG VCNTY KAUS LOWERING VSBYS
AOB 3 MILES BECOMING AFTER 15Z CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVING RAPIDLY
TO VFR CONDITIONS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. KDRT
TERMINAL..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS FORMING
AFTER 10Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

UPDATE...
LATE THIS MORNING THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM SPEAKS TO
PLEASANTON TO ROCKSPRINGS. A SHALLOW AND COOL AIRMASS WAS LOCATED
NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT THIS AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MODIFY AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE BEST
AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES...A WEAK VORT MAX WEST OF BIG BEND MOVING
EASTWARD AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS 1 TO 3 DEGREES NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

UPDATE...
SHALLOW COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. ATTM THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUNCTION TO SAN ANTONIO
TO COLUMBUS. LOW CEILINGS...PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WERE
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS S CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING AND
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR A KDRT TO 50S KSAT TO 25N KVCT LINE BY
1Y7Z. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND VFR BY AFTERNOON OR
18Z. ISOLD SHRA AND PATCHY -DZ WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND MOVE
NWD THIS MORNING...BECOMING ISOLD-SCT SHRSA/TSRA BY THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF I35. OTHERWISE VFR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT QUICKLY BECOMING MVFR THEN IFR AFTER 04Z THIS
EVENING AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWD. LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY CONTINUING TIL ABOUT 06Z/15Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STREAM
NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE SKIMPY...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WET THE PAVEMENT
MAKING FOR A SLIPPERY MORNING COMMUTE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR
INTO THE REGION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CONTINUES AND COUPLES WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO NEAR CLIMO NORMS
(20-30 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING THE BEST AREA-WIDE
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA FOR THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE LATE-WEEK
COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS WEDNESDAY AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL MODERATE AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES.
OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
NOTICEABLY COOLER MORNING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL WARM TO CHAMBER- OF-COMMERCE READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 92 72 86 75 / 20 40 40 40 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 91 70 87 73 / 20 40 40 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 73 86 73 / 20 30 30 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 86 68 83 72 / 20 50 50 40 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 95 76 91 75 / 20 20 20 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 89 70 83 75 / 20 50 50 40 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 93 75 90 75 / 20 30 30 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 73 86 75 / 20 30 30 40 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 91 75 89 76 / 20 30 30 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 90 75 89 76 / 20 30 30 30 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 92 75 90 76 / 20 30 30 30 20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 061056
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IN BR THIS MORNING AS
VERY WARM MOIST GULF AIR HAS PUSHED INTO S TX. AN INCREASING SLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH DEW POINTS THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...CAUSED THE QUICK FORMATION OF THE STRATUS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
DID NOT ALLOW FOR ANY DENSE FOG FORMATION. A FEW LIGHT STREAMER
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE GULF MAINLY EAST OF I35 THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE STRATUS DECK WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND BREAK OR SCATTER
OUT TO VFR MOST AREAS BY 17Z. SCT CU AT 35-45 HND FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TX WILL MOVE TO
THE NRN HILL COUNTRY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TO NEAR A KDRT-25N KSAT-25E KAUS LINE BY 03Z. SCT-NMRS
SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT...SOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWN-BURST WINDS. SELY SFC WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...SHIFTING TO NELY 5 TO 15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY AS MOIST SOUTHEAST
SFC FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE HILL COUNTRY BY MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPC HAS
CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
ROCKSPRINGS TO SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE WITH CONCERNS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
INVITING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WILL REMEDY THE UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY AS THE FROPA PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN MID-OCTOBER NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 70 81 75 90 / 40 50 30 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 71 82 74 91 / 40 50 30 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 71 86 74 91 / 40 50 20 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 79 73 84 / 50 60 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 77 91 75 93 / 30 40 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 79 74 86 / 50 60 30 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 85 77 90 / 30 40 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 83 74 91 / 40 50 20 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 74 84 76 91 / 30 40 30 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 85 77 90 / 40 50 20 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 75 87 76 92 / 30 40 20 10 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/01

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[ROLLTIDE]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 211753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY THE SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. AFTER BRIEF CLEARING... CU HAS
REFORMED AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORMING PARTICULARLY AROUND
AUSTIN. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35. WINDS SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KTS. CIGS
SHOULD STAY VFR... HOWEVER IF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COMES
THROUGH CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH KDRT AROUND 06Z AND ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z.
PRECIP SHOULD END PRIMARILY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS
SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

UPDATE...
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH
RANGE THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM RICK HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR
MAZATLAN. EXTRAPOLATION OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW
HEAVIEST RAINS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA THURSDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL END
RAIN CHANCES. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY IN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST, REACHING KDRT ARND 04Z AND KAUS/KSAT/KSSF ARND 12Z. ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WILL
PREVAIL. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE TERMINALS, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 GUSTING TO 25 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TROPICAL PLUME FROM
TROPICAL STORM RICK WILL ADD INGREDIENT FOR HEAVIER RAINS. RICK
IS EXPECTED TO HIT MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY. THE COMBINED
LOW LEVEL GULF AND MID/UPPER PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM RICK WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP MOIST AND MORE BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE. WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA TODAY. PW (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES WILL BE ON AVERAGE AN
INCH AND A HALF OR GREATER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY SO
SOME MODERATE SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS TONIGHT..THE
TROPICAL PLUME WILL TEND TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AS
DRIER WESTERLY WINDS SWEEP INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LOWER PW`S
THROUGHOUT THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
TOMORROW. THUS.. RICK`S IMPACT TO OUR REGION (IN TERMS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL) MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINE THE FRONT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA IN 72 HOURS
(FRIDAY NIGHT) AND WILL MONITOR IN LATER RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY.
NONETHELESS..WILL KEEP DRY WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS REGION SATURDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY
(WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT) THUS..SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO OUR AREA
WITH WARMER NIGHTTIME LOWS FORECAST. AM DISCOUNTING UPPER LOW
FORMING FOR NOW ACROSS BAJA THUS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
BE DISCOUNTED AS WELL ON SUNDAY. WILL SEE IF THIS FEATURE IS
CONTINUED ON SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SO STAY TUNED. WESTERLIES ALOFT
(WITH SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE) WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 75 52 75 52 / 90 40 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 75 46 76 46 / 90 40 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 76 49 79 48 / 80 50 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 72 48 72 50 / 80 30 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 78 53 81 57 / 20 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 73 49 73 51 / 90 40 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 47 79 50 / 60 30 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 76 48 74 49 / 90 50 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 74 53 73 50 / 90 60 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 76 52 78 51 / 70 40 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 77 52 77 52 / 70 40 10 - -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/19/09

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