Saratoga County, NY
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10-04-2009, 08:37 AM
Post: #11
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Saratoga County, NY
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 -- Highlight Changed Discussion -- -- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. -- 000 FXUS61 KALY 041119 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 720 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A COOLER AIR MASS. THIS CHANGE OF AIR MASS MOVING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ABOUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE TERRAIN WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. COMBINE THIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ASSIST WITH SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THESE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE EXPECTED CAP BETWEEN 500-600MB PER FORECAST NAM/GFS BUFR PROFILES. LATEST EXPERIENTIAL 4KM SPC WRF REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER THE TERRAIN AROUND NOON THEN MIGRATES INTO THE VALLEY AND REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO CHC-SCT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVE TO BE MILD WITH VALUES 70-75F SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AROUND 70F FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WEAKENS/FILLS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AND EXIT THE CONUS MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS MIGRATION TIME FRAME...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH BRINGS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE WARM...ALL PRECIP WILL BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS WHILE LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPS ARE AROUND 14C. THIS SETS THE DELTA T VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE 13C THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE HITS THE QPF FIELDS QUITE HARD DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT INLAND PENETRATION REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. AT THIS POINT...WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE THE MEAN TRAJECTORY FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON TAKING ANY BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NY-STATE THRUWAY AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OPENS UP AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED RAINFALL HOLDING OFF UNTIL UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND A COMPROMISE WAS UTILIZED THIS FORECAST CYCLE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE 300 HPA JET BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. A WEAK HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA AND DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BUT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MARITIMES IT WILL SET UP A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BRINGING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WHERE 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE MINUS 6 TO MINUS 10. THE WEST/NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES START OUT FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S BUT DROP SOME FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MOSTLY ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30S AND 40S. ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS...WHICH WERE TOO COLD ON THE GMOS...WE USED THE GMOS TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MODIFIED THE POPS TO ADJUST FOR LOCAL EFFECTS OF THE LAKES AND TERRAIN. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- FOG AND OR LOW CLOUDS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TO START OF THE DAY...WITH MAINLY IFR OR EVEN LIFR EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z...WITH INCREASED MIXING OF THE COLUMN...THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK AT LEAST TO THE MVFR RANGE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MIGHT TOUCH OFF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT AT THIS TIME WE DID NOT EVEN INCLUDE VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS AT ALL. THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TO AROUND 8KTS LATER TODAY. OUTLOOK... SUN PM-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX. TUE NGT-WED...CHC MVFR RA/SHRA. WED NGT-THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .FIRE WEATHER... -- Changed Discussion -- MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40-60 PERCENT...QUICKLY CLIMB TOWARD 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND RANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 75 PERCENT ON MONDAY /THE HIGHER VALUES INTO THE TERRAIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND PORTIONS OF THE GREENS AND BERKS/. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY AT SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS ON MONDAY OF VALUES BETWEEN 10-20 MPH.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .HYDROLOGY... RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE AT LOW FLOWS AS MOST OF THE RAIN CONTINUES TO JUST SOAK INTO THE GROUND. THE HEAVIER RAIN TO THE EAST AFFECTED A FEW SMALLER BASINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART WAS EAST OF THE HOUSATONIC BASIN. THE NEXT PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL AMOUNT TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON STREAMFLOW. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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10-05-2009, 01:40 PM
Post: #12
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Saratoga County, NY
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Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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10-06-2009, 10:59 AM
Post: #13
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Saratoga County, NY
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 -- Highlight Changed Discussion -- -- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. -- 000 FXUS61 KALY 061150 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 749 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A TRANQUIL DAY AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND OVERNIGHT FOR ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND WINDY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 745 AM EDT...STILL SOME RESIDUAL SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND EXPANDED WITHIN AND CLOSE TO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND FOR THESE SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY EXPAND A BIT...OR REDEVELOP FROM KALB NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AS MIXING DEEPENS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE SOMEWHAT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ONLY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... AS OF 3 AM...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THEN DISSIPATING OVER THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. THIS DISSIPATING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS RIDGE AXIS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE GROWTH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...CI/CS DECK WAS PROGRESSING QUICKLY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO. SO WE WILL CALL IT PTSUNNY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT OF A CHALLENGE. FORECAST BUFR PROFILES POINT TOWARD MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS RIGHT AT 850MB WHICH YIELDS MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER DOES CONTINUE TO FILTER OUT INSOLATION POTENTIAL WHICH AGREES THE TRENDS SEEN IN THIS MORNINGS LAMP GUIDANCE. SO WE WILL SHAVE OFF A COUPLE DEGREES FROM MOS GUIDANCE.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE IN EARNEST THIS EVENING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE NY CWA THIS EVENING AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDE INCREASES TOWARD 50KTS WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS MAY RECEIVE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. FURTHERMORE...MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASE WITH THOSE SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO AT OR BELOW 0C. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ITS ATTENDING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...THEN COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL COMBINE FOR A BRISK AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD...LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP AND WE WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS SUGGESTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AS 900-925MB WIND SPEEDS ARE AROUND 50KTS WHICH IS WHERE OUR EFFECTIVE MIXING LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE. IT DOES SEEM THE ARRIVAL OF THIS STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR BETWEEN 21Z- 03Z /THE GFS WINDOW IS LITTLE NARROWER/. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS STORM MOVES RATHER QUICKLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. CLOUDS AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY HOLD ON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT EVENTUALLY THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL OVERNIGHT. MACHINE NUMBERS ARE ALL WITHIN 1 DEGREE AND DID A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS QUITE CLOSE TO OUR CURRENT FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN RIDGE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD GIVE US SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. THE CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND THEN LIFTS NORTH...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. A CANADIAN HIGH THEN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SKIES CLEARING ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT TO THE MID 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR 50 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 60 IN THE LOWER HUDSON AND HOUSATONIC VALLEYS. A CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED COOL WEATHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE POSITIONS AND TIMING OF THE MODELS DIFFER...AND THUS WILL SIMPLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN VFR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. LATER TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES...A STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE DURING THIS TIME...TRENDING TOWARD MVFR...THEN POSSIBLY IFR AFTER 08Z/WED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY TOWARD AND AFTER 10Z/WED...AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A NARROW BAND/LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER 12Z/WED. AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES MAY NEED AT LEAST CB APPENDAGE DUE TO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...AT 5-10 KT. THE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTHEAST...AT 5-10 KT...INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES...AT 10-20 KT AT KALB AND KPOU...AND AROUND 10 KT ELSEWHERE. SOME GUSTS MAY EXCEED 20 KT AFTER 10Z/WED AT KALB...WHERE FUNNELING/ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z/WED...ESP AT KGFL AND KPOU...WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...10 KT OR LESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 30-40 KT. OUTLOOK... TUE NGT-WED...MVFR IN RA/SHRA. WED NGT-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX. FRI NT/SAT...CHC MVFR/SCATTERED SHRA.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .FIRE WEATHER... -- Changed Discussion -- A DRY DAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A SOAKING RAINFALL TONIGHT. WINDY ALONG WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN ONLY DROP TO AROUND 65 TO 85 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .HYDROLOGY... -- Changed Discussion -- NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING AT GENERALLY LOW FLOWS. THE NEXT PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ONE THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME VERY MODEST INCREASES IN STREAMFLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT DUE TO MORE RAIN AND WETTER GROUND CONDITIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...ONLY VERY SLIGHT INCREASES IN FLOW ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY...WITH MORE RAIN ON FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...KL/BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...RCK AVIATION...KL/RCK FIRE WEATHER...BGM HYDROLOGY...RCK Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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10-24-2009, 02:07 PM
Post: #14
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Saratoga County, NY
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Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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10-25-2009, 03:21 PM
Post: #15
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Saratoga County, NY
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Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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10-27-2009, 12:27 PM
Post: #16
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Saratoga County, NY
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | [url=jwindow.print()]Print[/url] | Product List | Glossary Off Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 -- Highlight Changed Discussion -- -- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. -- 000 FXUS61 KALY 271442 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1042 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2009 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion -- AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SOME RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO THE ENTIRE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY IS TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION ABOUT TO POU AND NW CT...TRACKING EAST AND NORTHEAST. SUNNY IN FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS...BUT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS HOLE WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE SUNSHINE IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS...HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH THE CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA...AND THE PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN AREAS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CAPPED IN THE LOWER 50S. SO...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PREV AFD BELOW... CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AS THE REGION GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...AND ONE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS NOW FORECAST TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED...AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR TODAY... RANGING UP TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ULSTER COUNTY AND MOST OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. WITH CLOUDS MORE WIDESPREAD AND SOME PCPN LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW...THEN MOVE OUT TO SEA. THE WILL RESULT IN ONLY A BRIEF LOWERING OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE EVENING...WITH NO PCPN FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 45 TO AROUND 50 AS CLOUDS AND PCPN KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THUR NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z FRI. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT EARLIER...SO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THOUGH...SO WHILE MIN TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COLD THEY WILL ONLY RUN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE AVG. FRI WILL BE A WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN COMBINED WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C TO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO REACH THE LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT FRONT STARTS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STRENGTHENING...MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE 40S. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...HOWEVER TIMING IS IN QUESTION. MOST OF THE DECENT DYNAMICS TIED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH INTO CANADA...HOWEVER A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THUR INTO FRI MAY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BECOME A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. THIS WAVE MAY REACH THE NORTHEAST DURING FROPA ON SAT. THIS CAUSES SOME COMPLICATIONS IN TIMING AND ALSO QPF. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SHOWING AROUND AN INCH NOW...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION 50 POPS FOR NOW THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING...TEMPS COULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. ANOTHER CONCERN MAY BE FOR POSSIBLE STRONG WINDS ON SAT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING DESPITE 50-60 KT H85 WIND SPEEDS. LIKELY AREA FOR ANY ISSUES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SAT NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY W-NW ON SUNDAY. ECMWF MUCH SLOWER WITH FROPA AND IS SHOWING ADDITIONAL QPF SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE GGEM IS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS...BUT WILL GO WITH 40 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW MIXING IN WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS SLACKEN A BIT MORE FOR MON...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FIRST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS FOR LLWS FROM KALB TO KGFL...AS WINDS AROUND 1500-2000 FT AGL HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT WITH SFC WINDS NEAR CALM. WILL MENTION LLWS AT KGFL/KALB THROUGH AROUND 14Z-15Z BEFORE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN. PRECIP AND LOW STRATUS ASSOC WITH A COMPACT COASTAL LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH MVFR CIGS ALREADY INVADING KPOU. FORECAST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW WITH PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS/RAIN...SO WILL KEEP KPOU IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH -RA DEVELOPING BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE TRANQUIL AT KALB-KGFL...WHERE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND TRENDS FROM SFC OBS INDICATE STRATUS CLOUDS IN MVFR RANGE WILL MAKE IT UP TO KALB AROUND 14Z-15Z. PRECIP SHIELD WILL GET CLOSE BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KALB. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KGFL...BUT WITH OVC SKIES. -RA WILL LIKELY TAPER TO -DZ AT KPOU BY AROUND 22Z...WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF STEADY RAIN MOVING IN AROUND 06Z/WED ASSOC WITH A RAPIDLY APPROACHING TROF OF LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AT KPOU AROUND 06Z AS WELL. WILL FORECAST IFR CIGS AT KALB STARTING AROUND 08Z/WED...AS -RA DEVELOPS. WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS AT KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z/WED WITH VCSH AS -RA ENCROACHES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY E-SE AROUND 3-6 KT AT KGFL/KALB BUT NE AT KPOU TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 3 KT. OUTLOOK... WED...IFR/MVFR...OCNL -RA. WED NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. THU/FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX. SAT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SOME RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TODAY...AND TO THE ENTIRE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY. THE RH WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT TODAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE RH WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND REMAIN ABOVE 80 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE ENTIRE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PASSES NEARBY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AND CONFINED TO A LIMITED AREA FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE HOUSATONIC BASIN. MORE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING TROF OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO RECEIVE RAIN. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH ONE QUARTER TO AS MUCH AS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SOUTH OF ALBANY. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR WITHIN BANK RISES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. MORE RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME THOUGH. MOST MODELS SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT QPF...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION THE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER TO PASS THROUGH RESULTING IN GREATER QPF. CHECK BACK FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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11-22-2009, 07:54 AM
Post: #17
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Saratoga County, NY
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Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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11-23-2009, 05:57 AM
Post: #18
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Saratoga County, NY
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Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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11-24-2009, 06:30 AM
Post: #19
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Saratoga County, NY
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Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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12-02-2009, 07:10 AM
Post: #20
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Saratoga County, NY
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Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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