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Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09
06-08-2009, 09:42 AM
Post: #1
Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009

Quote: VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE REGION FROM THE
SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST SOUTHWEST TO OK AND NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEST WSWLY FLOW OF 35-50KT EXISTS IN A BROAD BELT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BETWEEN DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NRN MEXICO...SOUTH
TX...AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW AND WAS CROSSING THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENEWD TOWARD
THE SRN GREAT LAKES TODAY WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT...PRECEEDED BY
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MOVES EWD/SEWD TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY. THE TRAILING SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT....FROM SERN KS
ACROSS WRN OK TO THE TX PNHDL...WILL LIKELY STALL ALONG OR NEAR THIS
AXIS AS STRONGER UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTS AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS DURING THE DAY.

...MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
AND FOCUS FOR SUSTAINED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
REGION TODAY DESPITE THE APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE PLAINS. INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MI THIS MORNING AIDED BY A LEADING
SMALL-SCALE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON
THE NOSE OF 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME NWD
PROGRESS ACROSS NRN IL AND LOWER MI IN THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST ROUND
OF PCPN AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S F/
AND POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. GIVEN SUPPORTIVE UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION... EXPECT
SOME CONVECTION TO INCREASE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG/AHEAD OF
RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS INTO THE AFTERNOON. BELT OF FASTER WLY MID LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 50KT WILL EXIST COINCIDENT WITH THIS RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM ORGANIZATION AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

ATTM...PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY PINPOINT THOSE AREAS WHERE THE GREATER
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FROM IL INTO LOWER MI. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MORE SUPPORTIVE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND LOW MAY OUTRUN GREATER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS AND RESULT IN LIMITED STORM COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM IL
INTO SWRN LOWER MI WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE SITUATED AND
DIABATICALLY ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND PERHAPS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LARGER HAIL AS WELL.

...MO SWWD TO OK/NWRN TX...
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTH OF THESE AREAS BUT
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AROUND
RESIDUAL/DECAYING CIRRUS CANOPIES WILL OCCUR BENEATH PRONOUNCED EML
AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS PROCESS SHOULD LEAD TO AN AXIS
OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM NWRN TX ACROSS OK AND INTO MO.
MLCAPE IN THIS CORRIDOR IS FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 2500 J/KG
BUT INHIBITION WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND
LIFT/MIXING ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES TO LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MODERATELY SHEARED FLOW INTO THE
EVENING.

WHILE GREATER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE NW TX AREA
WILL BE QUITE WEAK...STRONG HEATING/MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS IN THIS AREA BENEATH 35-40KT WLY 500MB
FLOW. AS IN PRIOR DAYS...ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

...HIGH PLAINS...
WITH HEATING...MARGINALLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS PUSHED INTO
ERN/SERN PARTS OF WY/CO PLAINS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG/ LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REGION LIES
BENEATH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECT TERRAIN AND LARGE SCALE
INFLUENCES TO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOWER LEVEL HELICITY ENHANCED BY
ELY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

...DELMARVA/PA/NJ...
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGH...AND INTERSECTION OF
THIS TROUGH WITH STALLED FRONT ACROSS PA/NJ COULD AID STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE FURTHER SUPPORTED/SUSTAINED BY
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY LATER
TODAY. MODELS DO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FROM
25-30KT LATER TODAY AND THIS COULD FAVOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
PROBABLY LIMIT PARCEL ACCELERATIONS WITHIN STORM UPDRAFTS AND EXPECT
ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH MARGINAL
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW TSTM WIND EVENTS.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS LATE...
LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA
LATER IN THE PERIOD AND RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRONG
CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/ATOP RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM NWRN OK TO
WRN KS AS NEXT IMPULSES EMANATING FROM SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER SRN CA MOVE EAST. NONETHELESS...ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE REGIME WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR POTENT AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. THUS...AT LEAST
A LOW PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT MAY EVOLVE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/08/2009

[Image: day1otlk_1300.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif]

[Image: day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif]

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06-08-2009, 09:45 AM
Post: #2
Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09
[Image: 1.jpg]

DAILY PODCAST UPDATE:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/brief/daily.html

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06-08-2009, 09:51 AM
Post: #3
Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09
Monday's Outlook:

Another round of scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening along the eastern slopes of the mountains from Douglas, Wyoming to Cheyenne to Denver and across portions of northeast Colorado. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe, producing quarter size hail or larger, or brief gusty winds near 60 mph. Thunderstorms over western and northern Wyoming will not be as strong. Most highs today will be in the 60s. High temperatures will be in the 60s at most locations on Monday.

[Image: File.png]

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06-08-2009, 09:52 AM
Post: #4
Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09
Monday's Outlook:

For today and tonight:
Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and Front
Range this afternoon and spread east across the plains late this
afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may become severe with
golf ball size hail, damaging winds to 60 mph and isolated
tornadoes.

[Image: File.png]

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06-08-2009, 01:39 PM
Post: #5
Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009


Quote:AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI/NORTHERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081934Z - 082030Z

SEVERE TSTM THREAT MAY INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS LOWER MI/PERHAPS NORTHERN INDIANA. A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED
SOON...AT LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MI.

A SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED/QUICKLY GONE SEVERE IN VICINITY
OF LANSING MI AS OF 1930Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI PER MOST RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A
WARM FRONT THAT IS RETREATING NORTHWARD ACROSS LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN VICINITY OF THE WEST-EAST WARM
FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI /PER GRAND RAPIDS AND DETROIT WSR-88D VWP
DATA/ SUGGEST A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 06/08/2009

[Image: mcd0989.gif]

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06-08-2009, 01:40 PM
Post: #6
Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009


Quote: AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TN/EASTERN KY/SOUTHEAST OH INTO WV AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081924Z - 082100Z

SCATTERED TSTMS CAPABLE OF PERIODIC SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN AND
SOUTHEAST OH INTO WV/SOUTHWEST PA AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC.
A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

NNE-SSW ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED/INCREASED ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A
GRAVITY WAVE TYPE FEATURE EMANATING FOR UPSTREAM EARLY DAY
CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT AN OCCASIONAL SEVERE
HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS TSTMS
DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
/UP TO 1500-2000 J PER KG/ ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /MEAN FLOW LESS THAN 20 KT/ IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL TSTM ORGANIZATION...AND A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 06/08/2009

[Image: mcd0988.gif]

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06-08-2009, 01:42 PM
Post: #7
Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009


Quote: THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

[Image: ww0350_radar_big.gif]

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06-08-2009, 02:13 PM
Post: #8
Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009

Quote: AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO...SRN NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082003Z - 082130Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO N INTO THE
LARAMIE MOUNTAINS OF WY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN
CO AND LARAMIE MOUNTAINS OF SERN WY IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ADDITIONAL AREA
OF DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND JUST N OF AN AXIS BETWEEN
DEN AND LIC...NEAR THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DENVER CYCLONE...WHICH
IS WELL DEFINED IN RECENT SURFACE OBS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OVER FAR NERN CO...CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 50S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
PREVENTING MORE ROBUST SURFACE DESTABILIZATION. AT 19Z...A TONGUE OF
MID TO UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS EXTENDED FROM ITR NE TO FCL AND LAR/CYS.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5 C/KM
/BASED ON 18Z DNR SOUNDING/...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TOWARD 500-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE WITH FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK
SHOWERY CONVECTION ONGOING SINCE LATE MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN
AND INTENSIFY OVER SERN WY AND NRN CO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITHIN THE
DENVER CYCLONE...GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE /UPPER 60S/ IS CLOSE
TO BEING ACHIEVED.

COMBINATION OF HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOCUS TIGHTENING HEIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG
/40-80 KT/ MID-UPPER LEVEL W-SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WY/CO. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO SELY AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD
INCREASING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /IN EXCESS OF 40-50
KT/...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF DEN.

[Image: mcd0990.gif]

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06-08-2009, 02:16 PM
Post: #9
Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009


Quote:THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

[Image: ww0351_radar_big.gif]

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06-08-2009, 02:50 PM
Post: #10
Moderate Risk 6/09/09-6/11/09
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2009

Quote:
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NW AND N CENTRAL TX...SW AND S CENTRAL
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 082018Z - 082115Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF
NW AND N CENTRAL TX INTO SW/S CENTRAL OK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...REQUIRING A WW
BEFORE 21Z.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NERN OK SW
TOWARD SPS AND W TOWARD LBB WHERE IT WAS ANCHORED BY A WEAK SURFACE
LOW. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SWD FROM THE LOW INTO SWRN TX...WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SITUATED E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE COLD
FRONT. MORNING RAOBS AND RECENT 18Z LMN SOUNDING DEPICT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IS
CONTRIBUTING TOWARD A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE /MLCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J PER KG/. A SUBTLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING
NE OUT OF NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NW/N CENTRAL TX AS EARLY AS 21Z.

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...AREA PROFILERS...AND SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE A BAND OF W-SWLY 40+ KT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-50 KT...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE CAPE...AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. IN
ADDITION...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO FAVOR STRONG COLD
POOL PRODUCTION AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS EXPAND IN
COVERAGE.

..GARNER.. 06/08/2009

[Image: mcd0991.gif]

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