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NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
04-01-2009, 12:33 PM
Post: #1
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
Screen cast from NWS - LC
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/owbrief/owbrief.php

Hazodous Outlook for SW LA and SE TX
Quote:weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hazardous Weather Outlook

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-021100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE WESTERN
THIRD OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHCENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE DEEPER MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS. A
DRY SLOT WILL END RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH LACK OF GOOD EASTERLY COMPONENT IN LOW LEVEL WINDS
MAY LIMIT TORNADIC POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY...A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...NOT
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...COULD BECOME AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 30
CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...WILL NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
BY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA.

$$

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04-02-2009, 08:26 AM
Post: #2
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
Update from yesterday:
Quote:weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
3 products issued by NWS for: Lafayette LA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009


626 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM MID
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AND END BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

$$

13

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04-06-2009, 06:46 AM
Post: #3
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
MID 30's!!!!

Area Forcast Discussion:
Quote:/ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON APR 6 2009/ DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED ON SUNDAY NOW LOCATED WELL TO OUR EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES RIDGING SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. UPR-LVL STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ABOUT TO ENTER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH TROFFING PRESENT OVER THE ERN 1/2 OF THE CONUS. 2RY SHORTWAVE DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE TROF ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. OBS FROM AROUND THE FORECAST AREA SHOW A BIT OF A CHILLY MORNING FOR APRIL WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. HOWEVER THROW IN THE SRLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND IT FEELS QUITE CHILLY FOR EARLY SPRING. BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET WITH THE MAIN STORIES BEING WINDS TODAY AND TEMPS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT THEY SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...AND CLOSER TO 20 MPH FOR THE SRN ZONES. GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WILL BE PLENTIFUL FROM I-10 SWD AND THUSLY A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKS CLOSE FOR THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA AND I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE DAY SHIFT HAS TO HOIST ONE FOR THAT AREA LATER THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE. WITH GOOD CAA ONGOING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER THE CORE OF THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STAY OVER TEXAS SO WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. GOOD THING TOO AS DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT OF A SPREAD AS FAR AS MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH THE NAM NUMBERS CONTINUING TO RUN COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS/ENSEMBLE. AS IT IS EVEN A BLEND WEIGHED TOWARD THE GFS BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...AND TO ACCOUNT HAVE HOISTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SINCE THERE REMAINS A QUESTION AS TO HOW LOW THE TEMPS WILL DROP WILL LEAVE ANY FREEZE WARNINGS FOR LATER SHIFTS AS TO BETTER REFINE THE THREAT. THE LOW TEMP RECORDS FOR APRIL 7TH ARE AS FOLLOWS (ALL FROM 1971)... LCH-34 BPT-37 LFT-35 AEX-31 ARA-33 (AEX/ARA ARE ALSO APRIL RECORDS) AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PAST THE REGION AND SRLY FLOW RETURNS. SRN STREAM UPR LOW MOVING INTO THE SWRN CONUS WILL HELP SPAWN NEXT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. ADEQUATE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS PROGGED BY THURSDAY AS WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO BEING CROSSING IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE RETURNING NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT APPROACHES. THUS POPS RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WE'RE IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT LOOKS DRY FOR NOW.

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04-09-2009, 01:11 PM
Post: #4
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hazardous Weather Outlook

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1206 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

LAZ017>022-TXZ136-137-149-150-152-153-165>167-101715-
SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-SMITH-GREGG-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1206 PM CDT THU APR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES COUNTRY OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER... STORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND POSE A HAIL OR WIND THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
OVER THE WEEKEND...A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
FOUR STATE REGION DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL HE A HEIGHTENED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL...HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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04-12-2009, 10:19 AM
Post: #5
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
Tornado Watch:

Quote:TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

TORNADO WATCH 143 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-122100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0143.090412T1300Z-090412T2100Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON
$$

Hazardous Outlook from NWS - Lake Charles, LA:


Quote:HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-131030-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
519 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE GULF TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP TUNED TO
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS DURING THIS EASTER HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO STAY INFORMED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.
$$

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04-13-2009, 06:50 AM
Post: #6
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
NWS - Lake Charles, LA
Dense Fog Advisory



Quote:URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
654 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM CDT...

.CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN
HAVE CONSPIRED TO PRODUCE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS
CONFINED TO MAINLY COASTAL AREAS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY AFTER 9 AM.

TXZ236>238-131400-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FG.Y.0010.090413T1154Z-090413T1400Z/
BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-MATAGORDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...
PALACIOS...PEARLAND...TEXAS CITY
654 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS
MORNING.

DENSE FOG HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE
DROPPED BELOW A QUARTER MILE AT ANGLETON...GALVESTON AND BAY CITY.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM
BRINGING IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WHICH WILL ERODE THE FOG
RATHER QUICKLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LAKE CHARLES LA 642 AM CDT MON APR 13 2009


Quote:A STALLED FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH BATON ROUGE TO ACROSS LAKE CHARLES TO ACROSS HOUSTON. DESCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS TRAPPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE (FROM THE PREVIOUS SUNDAY RAINS) WITHIN THE SURFACE LAYER POLEWARD OF THE STALLED FRONT. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS THE RESULT. A SECONDARY DRY FRONT DRAPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL ADVANCE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...THE POST- FRONTAL DRY-AIR INTRUSION SHOULD ERODE-AWAY THE STRATUS...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

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04-14-2009, 06:29 AM
Post: #7
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
AREA FORCAST DISCUSSION:

Quote:AVIATION...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY... BEFORE DRIFTING EAST INTO LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. NO AVIATION PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
ISSUED 436 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TODAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES IN ADVANCE OF THE A SLOWLY MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. WE CAN EXPECT A WET PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE WEEKEND MIGHT NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM...
WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND COOLER H850 TEMPS THAN THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, THE COMFORTABLE LOWER 70S WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND FRESH BREEZES.
LONG TERM...
THE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO STORMY ONCE AGAIN AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. A LOW CLOSES OFF AND PUTS ON THE BRAKES NEAR THE PAN HANDLE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL ACT TO SLOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LAST FEW RUNS SO INCLUDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS WE'VE JUST SEEN WITH THE LATEST STACKED LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE, A STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION. WE MAY NOT BE SO LUCKY WITH THE CAP AS WE WERE WITH THE LAST SYSTEM.
MARINE...
WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z (7AM). THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN UPDATE OF THE COASTAL FORECAST TO REMOVE THE SCA. CURRENT WINDS ARE GUSTING JUST ABOVE SCA CRITERIA OVER THE OUTER WATERS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
LATE THIS WEEK, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH A LONG FETCH, PRODUCING BUILDING SEAS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE HOISTING OF A SUBSEQUENT SCA.
JS

ZONE FORCAST:

Quote:ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
359 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009
TXZ180>182-201-142100-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
359 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2009

TODAY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

TONIGHT CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

WEDNESDAY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

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04-15-2009, 06:28 AM
Post: #8
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
Area Forcast Discussion:

Quote:SHORT TERM
AT LEAST TODAY WILL BE NICE BEFORE WE FALL BACK INTO SEVERE WEATHER MODE AGAIN. NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE EASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME DEW PTS BACK BUT THE 70S DP STAY LOCKED UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. FIRST EVIDENCE OF HOW THINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE A STRONG VORT CENTER THAT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COASTAL BEND OF TX AND INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OVER. PROBLEM WILL BE MOISTURE. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM WHERE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE OCCURRING OVER SE TX INTO AN AREA THAT IS LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. REGARDLESS...THE FEATURE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SINCE ONLY ONE POINT OF CONNECTIVITY WITH ANY MOISTURE AND A TS WILL GET FIRED OFF WITH ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO PROVIDE SEVERE WX. IF ANYTHING GETS STARTED...IT WOULD BE ELEVATED AND MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL.

LONG TERM
WARM FRONTAL LIKE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOADING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HEATING PROVIDES THAT EXTRA LIFT. STRONGER DYNAMICALLY FORCED LIFT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LAYS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE FROM VICKSBURG TO NEAR HOUSTON. THIS PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP SET UP THE REAL WEATHER MAKER FOR SATURDAY. IT IS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL INTERFACE THAT A VERY STRONG DISTURBANCE IS EJECTED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ALL THE SUPPORT NEEDED UPSTAIRS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE GET GOING AROUND 10AM SATURDAY NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. FROM THERE...IT WILL EXPLODE AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE WITH THE MEAN FLOW UP TO HOUSTON AND OVER TO LCH BY SAT EVENING WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO GET PICKED UP BY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. IT THEN BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG AND SEVERE TS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. EVENTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH SE LA...SOME OF THE RAINFALL TALLIES COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FROM THE HOUSTON AREA THROUGH HERE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND FLUSHES EVERYTHING EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

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04-16-2009, 06:13 AM
Post: #9
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
Quote:[COLOR="blue"]DAY ONE
TODAY AND TONIGHT
[/COLOR]
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL SEGMENT BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND CAMERON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
[COLOR="Blue"]DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
[/COLOR]
A GULF-OF-MEXICO WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY. MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE NUMEROUS AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SPOT AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. ALSO...SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THE RAINS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
.

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009

/ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO JUST NORTH OF HAVANA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...PERMITTING THIS WARM FRONT TO BACKDOOR NORTHWARD ..ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER-UP...A LARGE-AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LOW INDEX PATTERN IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IN PLACE...NAMELY THE MIDWEST RIDGE AND A CUT-OFF LOW VICINITY THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE GREAT BASIN.
A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY (OR SHORTWAVES) ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CUT-OFF AND PASSING OVER THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM IS SETTING-UP...AS BAY-OF-CAMPECHE AIR STREAMS IN...UPGLIDING OVER THE CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GULF CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL...WHILE NIGHTTIME READINGS WILL BE RUNNING AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
FOR FRIDAY...WARM FRONTAL RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...AS UNSTABLE POST WARM-FRONTAL AIR IS LIFTED BY PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. ALSO...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE... RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDES ON FRIDAY.

HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IS FORECASTED FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE CALCASIEU RIVER THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDES.

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04-17-2009, 06:25 AM
Post: #10
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area


FROM NWS - LAKE CHARLES, LA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009


Quote:DAY ONE
TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES BETWEEN JEFFERSON AND VERMILION.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ...WITH SPOT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ALSO...SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
RAINS WILL BE ENDING ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT


SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009


Quote:

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...PERMITTING A GULF OF MEXICO WARM FRONT TO SWING NORTHWARD ..ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER-UP...A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS HIGHLY BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST...REACHING MISSOURI ON SUNDAY.
A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY (OR SHORTWAVES) ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CUT-OFF LOW. ONE WAVETRAIN TRACK FOR THE ROTATING SHORTWAVES IS LOCATED ALONG A SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA LINE. THIS TRACK WILL MOVE EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW.

DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...WARM FRONTAL RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS UNSTABLE POST WARM-FRONTAL AIR IS LIFTED BY PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
CLOUD COVER...FRESH WINDS...AND RAIN SHOULD HOLD THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...BAY-OF-CAMPECHE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN... FUELING ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVETRAIN TRACK... AN ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT.
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVETRAIN TRACK WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED IN THIS TIME PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT BASIN-AVERAGED AMOUNTS WILL BE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SPOT AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HPC QPF (QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FIELDS) AND THE GFS QPF.
BY SUNDAY...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

MARINE...
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALSO...THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDES THROUGH SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IS FORECASTED FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE CALCASIEU RIVER THAT ARE INFLUENCED BY THE TIDES.

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