Post Reply 
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
06-09-2015, 07:29 AM (This post was last modified: 06-29-2015 06:08 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #1521
RE: NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

Quote:.DISCUSSION...
09/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NR THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE FURTHER NORTH...ISLTD TO SCT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTH AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID AND UPR
LVL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACRS THE
AREA...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY
MAINLY NR THE LA TERMINALS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO SE
TX SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISLTD NR BPT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LT SWLY WINDS. CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE IS NOTED FROM ROUGHLY THE
ARKLATEX TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 50H HEIGHTS ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR KLCH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. REALLY GOOD
MOISTURE WAS NOTED ON THE 09/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING...WITH PWAT
OVER 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 70 PERCENT. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN
GPS-MET INTEGRATED PWAT AND SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT SHOWS
VALUES LOWER AND IN THE 1.8 RANGE...STILL ABOVE THE JUNE NORM. ONE
OTHER NOTE...THE SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PWAT STILL SHOWS A LARGE
POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.5 INCHES.

RUA

DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS
GRIP AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE
BEHIND A NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CUT OFF FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...AND RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.75
INCHES WITH MEAN RH IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. ALSO...WITH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS...THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SEA
BREEZE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LOOKS
LIKE TYPICAL DAYTIME HEATING TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY NEAR MESO SCALE BOUNDARIES...SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOWS/ATCHAFALAYA BASIN CONVERGENCE. THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE BEST TIME TO SEE THE CONVECTION WILL BE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SO DO NOT EXPECT ALOT OF STRONG ACTIVITY...MAY BE JUST A COUPLE OF
PULSE TYPE STORMS IF BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

IN THE LONG TERM...A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF OF FLORIDA WILL EXPAND WESTWARD...PUSHING
THIS WEAKNESS TO THE WEST AND BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE FEATURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE INTERACTION OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL ALLOW A STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING OF THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THAT WILL LIKELY TAP
INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND FUNNEL
IT UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INCREASE TO BETWEEN
2 AND 2.25 INCHES WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT. THIS TROPICAL LIKE
AIRMASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THESE AIR MASSES...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
THE COASTAL AREA...WITH IT EXPANDING NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE POSSIBLY DECREASING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE PROCESS THEN STARTING OVER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...AND EXPECTED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE. THE GFS KEEPS THE WEAKNESS AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BUILDING
AND STRENGTHENING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH
THAT WOULD PUSH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST...WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND WHICH CALLS
FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS HELPING TO
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THUS...THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY
THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND LOW SEAS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA...WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HELP BUILD
SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERTAKES THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 92 72 91 71 / 40 20 40 20
LCH 91 74 91 74 / 40 20 40 20
LFT 90 73 89 73 / 50 30 50 30
BPT 92 74 92 74 / 40 20 30 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07
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06-29-2015, 06:08 AM (This post was last modified: 07-06-2015 06:52 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #1522
RE: NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Quote:.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PROVIDE A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
FAVORABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT RANGE...THE LATEST EURO TRENDED WARMER THAN THE GOING GFS
AND I WENT MORE WITH THIS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE DECENT SIDE TODAY DUE TO THE MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE
RECENTLY WASHED OUT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG RANGE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT ON THE WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DUE TO THE MIDWESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF PRECIP TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE TRENDING HOT AND
DRY AFTER NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 90 77 93 73 / 50 20 40 20
LCH 92 78 90 76 / 40 20 40 10
LFT 91 77 92 75 / 40 20 30 10
BPT 93 79 89 75 / 40 20 40 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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07-06-2015, 06:52 AM (This post was last modified: 07-22-2015 06:19 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #1523
RE: NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
Ho-hum S. LA wx summer pattern:



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
422 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

Quote:.DISCUSSION...
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
PROGGED TO LIFT NWD AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS...IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN
A DRIER PATTERN VS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO AT
LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND...SURGE OF BETTER MSTR COUPLED WITH
A PAIR OF WEAK INVERTED TROFS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
BETTER POPS...BUT STILL GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 92 74 92 75 / 10 10 20 10
LCH 90 78 90 77 / 10 10 20 10
LFT 91 77 91 77 / 10 10 20 10
BPT 91 78 91 78 / 10 10 20 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

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07-22-2015, 06:19 AM (This post was last modified: 08-18-2015 07:52 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #1524
RE: NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
500 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

Quote:.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REINFORCE
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS
BROUGHT INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT RANGE...SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY EXCEED
SEASONAL VALUES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG RANGE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING DRY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AT LOW LEVELS WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. SOME EASTERLY FLOW WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE AS
IT MIGRATES NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIP CHANCES APPRAOCHING CLIMO OVER ACADIANA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 96 75 97 76 / 20 10 10 10
LCH 94 78 93 77 / 10 0 10 10
LFT 92 76 94 79 / 20 0 10 10
BPT 96 78 94 76 / 10 0 10 10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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08-18-2015, 07:51 AM (This post was last modified: 08-19-2015 07:08 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #1525
RE: NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
701 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015


Quote:.AVIATION...
ACTIVITY IN THE GULF IS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS SLOWLY INCREASING IN AREA COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
CEILING WILL BE LOWER AROUND STORMS FM 018 TO 028. THIS ACTVTY
WILL CONT THRU THE DAY INTO THE EVE HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS...FROM
NORTHEAST OLD MEXICO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IS HELPING TO PROVIDE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND THUS ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. RADAR IS ALREADY
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR TODAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNRISE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY REACHING UP TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEFORE FALLING APART...
THEN ACTIVITY RE-DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND PUSHING
NORTH WITH THE SEABREEZE. MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...PWAT NEAR 2 INCHES...COMPARED TO THE LAKES
AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...NEAR 1.75 INCHES...AND WILL HAVE HIGH
END CHANCE POP OVER LOWER ACADIANA...TO LOW END CHANCE OVER UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN RESPECT TO THIS.

A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND JOIN UP AND RE-ENFORCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE INCREASE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TAP FURTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE THE AUGUST NORM OF 1.75
INCHES AND CLOSER TO 2.25 INCHES...ALONG WITH MEAN RH VALUES OVER
80 PERCENT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIVERGENT...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE FRONT NEARING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH...TO HELP
ENHANCE LIFT. THIS ALL SHOULD MEAN A COUPLE OF FAIRLY WET DAYS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS. CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP KEEP DAYTIME HEATING IN CHECK AND KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN
ENOUGH THAT THE STORMS SHOULD NOT GET TOO STRONG. STILL...TROPICAL
DOWNPOURS...ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL AMPLE MOISTURE HANGING AROUND...WITH A WEAKNESS
ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE
LESS OVER THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

RUA

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EARLY MORNING. THESE
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RIDGES ACROSS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 94 75 91 74 / 30 20 60 50
LCH 92 77 89 78 / 40 30 60 40
LFT 91 77 88 77 / 50 30 60 40
BPT 93 76 89 78 / 40 30 60 40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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08-19-2015, 07:07 AM (This post was last modified: 08-31-2015 06:46 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #1526
RE: NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015
Quote:.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INLAND FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. KBPT
IN A BREAK AT THE MOMENT...SO CARRIED VCSH HERE FOR A FEW HRS
BEFORE BRINGING BACK VCTS MID MORNING. TEMPO THUNDER WAS USED AT
THE COASTAL LA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HRS OF THE
FCST...WITH VCTS PREVAILED THEREAFTER AS MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TWD
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY AFTERNOON. TEMPO
LIFR CIG AT KAEX...WHICH SHOULD LIFT/ERODE IN A COUPLE OF HRS.
VCTS STARTING HERE MID MORNING. VFR TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST KLCH RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN
COASTAL ZONES AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHES FM THE SW. THE
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE TAIL END OF A TROF THAT EXTENDS FM THE
UPR MIDWEST SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRES EAST OF THE AREA WAS MAINTAINING SLY FLOW...SUPPLYING THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WAS POISED NW OF
THE REGION...EXTENDING FM SW MO ACRS OK INTO NW TX.

DISCUSSION...
THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE NMRS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SRN ZONES BY MIDDAY.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTN AS THE
DISTURBANCE SLIDES OFF TO THE NE. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL BE
FAIRLY HEALTHY...RUNNING CLOSE TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR OR BETWEEN 2.2 TO 2.3 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION FROM STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL...AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 OR POSSIBLY 3 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER OF
COUNTIES/PARISHES AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DURING THE AFTN AND THIS AREA IS WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR
STORMS ON THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND SCTD TO NMRS SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA...DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BE LIMITED AND AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS EVENING...RAIN CHCS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COOL FRONT TO THE NW AND
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE AREA ALOFT. AGAIN...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD
TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAIN CHCS WILL BE TO TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT AND HIGH PRES RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS WEST
ACRS THE GULF. WITH RAIN CHCS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AFTN HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP CHCS REMAINING NEAR MID AUGUST NORMALS AND TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.

MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING ACRS THE NRN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MDT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE OVER
THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS. RAIN CHCS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
LIGHTER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 90 75 89 74 / 50 50 60 20
LCH 89 77 91 77 / 70 50 60 30
LFT 89 77 91 76 / 70 40 60 30
BPT 90 77 90 76 / 60 50 60 30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

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08-31-2015, 06:46 AM (This post was last modified: 08-31-2015 06:47 AM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #1527
RE: NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015
Quote:.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 93 71 93 72 / 10 10 20 20
LCH 89 74 89 73 / 30 20 30 20
LFT 90 73 92 74 / 30 10 20 20
BPT 89 74 89 74 / 30 20 40 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER


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