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NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
05-01-2009, 07:55 AM
Post: #21
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
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National Weather Service



Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009


Quote:GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-020930-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY AND LINGERING INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO RETURN FROM OFF THE GULF AND
BRINGING WITH IT A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009


Quote:.UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. BROKEN STRATOCU IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION RESULTING IN MVFR. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO
BREAK INTO SCATTERED LATER THIS MORNING YIELDING VFR.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009/

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSES FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOK LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD AS FAR AS THE FORECAST AREA IS CONCERNED WITH MAIN
FEATURE BEING THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING WWD ACROSS THE REGION AND
PROVIDING US WITH A LOW-LEVEL SRLY FLOW. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE A DRY WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT IS ONGOING.

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. DID INCLUDE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE AREA TODAY AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CONTINUED MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION OR CAPPING. HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS
PROGGED TO INVADE THE REGION BY SATURDAY SO HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW FOR NOW. SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS BREEZY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SRN TX WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH READINGS
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY THE GRIDS/ZONES ARE RELATIVELY UNTOUCHED. SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING THE REGION
SUNDAY. ATTENDANT SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH ITS EVENTUAL PROGRESS A SOURCE OF
DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS. ATTM STILL LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE ERN ZONES BEFORE
WASHING IT OUT. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THERE`S ENOUGH ENERGY AND
SFC-BASED LIFT TO LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIP COVERAGE BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY. ONCE THE FRONT DISSIPATES A SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
RESUMES WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY THEREAFTER. LONGER RANGE MODELS EACH SHOW
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/SFC FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD
BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES...THUS HAVE JUST HELD ONTO 20 POPS FOR
NOW.

MARINE...SCA-CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE WRN WATERS ALSO
APPEAR TO HAVE A BRIEF SHOT OF POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SRLY WIND REGIME LINGERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

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05-02-2009, 09:22 AM
Post: #22
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area


[COLOR="Black"]HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009
[/COLOR]

Quote:THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A COOL FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

[COLOR="red"].SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
[/COLOR]

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

Quote:.AVIATION...
STRATO-CU HAS LOWERED CEILINGS THIS AM. CEILINGS RUNNING AROUND
008 INLAND WHILE TOWARDS THE COAST CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE
030. CONDITIONS INLAND WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009/

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING STRATOCU BLANKETED ALL BUT SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA OF THE FORECAST AREA. REMNANT CIRRUS INCOMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM EARLIER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS MCS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST TO
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING FRONT LAYING THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS. CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION MAINTAINING A RATHER MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

OUR FAIR WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MEANDERS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A CLIMB INTO THE MID
80S WHILE OUR BALMY SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN MOVING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN TROF CURRENTLY ADVANCING ONTO
THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. BULK OF RAINS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG BOUNDARY WHERE
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SPC CURRENTLY
CARRYING AREA IN DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK. WILL

RAINS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF DECREASE
IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE THE NORM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS. A COOL FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF MONDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

[Image: Wx4_southmissvly.png]

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05-02-2009, 11:50 AM
Post: #23
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
Did the guy at Skywarn class mention anything about how or who would activate spotters?
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05-02-2009, 12:42 PM
Post: #24
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
nightrider Wrote:Did the guy at Skywarn class mention anything about how or who would activate spotters?

It will be released on the bottom with one of there severe weather statements. I do not think we are going to get a phone call or email. Althought that would be cool...

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05-02-2009, 08:12 PM
Post: #25
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
I figured that, but it would've been nice for him to mention. Guess maybe I was thinking about something else when he covered that.
How far do you live from Catfish Heaven?
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05-02-2009, 08:17 PM
Post: #26
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
About 10 minutes from Catfish Heaven. Just drove past there less than an hour ago. Took the back way from my parents house in north Lafayette.

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05-02-2009, 08:23 PM
Post: #27
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
I went there this morning with my youngest boy. They got me for $94. We had a good time and caught some nice fish. My wife flipped when my little boy ratted me out on the price. Oh well I've spent that many times going to the river to only come back with a couple of fish.
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05-02-2009, 08:28 PM
Post: #28
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
nightrider Wrote:I went there this morning with my youngest boy. They got me for $94. We had a good time and caught some nice fish. My wife flipped when my little boy ratted me out on the price. Oh well I've spent that many times going to the river to only come back with a couple of fish.

I isn't cheep, but the fun that the kids have is worth it. The size of the fish is perfect for frying! If you do not catch there you ain't fishing...

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05-02-2009, 09:03 PM
Post: #29
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area
We had a good spot the people to our right and left were not catching anything, we caught 15 in about an hour. My little boy had a blast and so did I. Going to fry them Sunday evening and enjoy them with some mashed potatoes and corn.
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05-03-2009, 09:03 AM
Post: #30
NWS - Lake Charles, LA Area


Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

Quote:SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-005-009-019-025-029-033-037-039-041-047-053-055-063-
065-077-083-091-097-103-105-107-117-121-125-032000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0232.090503T1245Z-090503T2000Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION
AVOYELLES CALCASIEU CATAHOULA
CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON
MADISON POINTE COUPEE RICHLAND
ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS WASHINGTON
WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA
$$


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
946 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009


Quote:946 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 11 AM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM TYLER COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO AVOYELLES PARISHES. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED.

$$
GRIFFIN






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009


Quote:454 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WIND PROFILES AND
INSTABILITY ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS PARTICULARLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10 WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY WITH AN OVERALL DRY
PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.[COLOR="Red"]SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
[/COLOR]


$$

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