3/1/09-3/2/09 Historic Deep south Snow Storm

[ROLLTIDE]

As far as the Southeast storm... here is what the Euro shows for QPF with Upper-Level storm ONLY (after 72hours out) :

CHA - 0.50" (2/3 of that as snow)
ATL - 0.80" (1/4 of that as snow)
AGS - 0.95" (1/2 of that as snow)
CAE - 0.80" (1/3 of that as snow)
GSP - 0.85" (2/3 of that as snow)
MYR - 1.10" (1/5 of that as snow)
CLT - 0.75" (1/2 of that as snow)
RDU - 0.90" (1/2 pf that as snow)
ORF - 1.15" (1/4 of that as snow)

[GingerStorm]

nice!!!

[ROLLTIDE]

Alabama WX update

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[ROLLTIDE]

This was taken from Tim Coleman's post on www.alabamawx.com... He will be speaking Saturday on the Campus at the University of South Alabama


QUOTE
Then comes the upper-level low Saturday night and Sunday. These things are very tough to forecast. An area of cold air forms aloft due to rising air, and it doesn’t move as much as it “propagates” like a wave. In other words, the circulation aloft causes rising air and cooling downstream, so the upper low constantly re-forms. The track of this is hard to forecast. It looks like it will move in here Saturday night and Sunday, with rapid cooling in the atmosphere. According to the models, it will be cold enough for snow in BHM by late Saturday evening, and all day Sunday. But forecasting where the precipitation will occur is the hard part. Right now, at least three models indicate snow in BHM. The NAM shows 4″, the GFS shows 2″, and the Canadian shows 1″. This is likely to change with every model run, and it’s possible that it won’t snow at all in BHM. It seems likely that someone in the southeastern U.S. will get snow out of this, but it could be Nashville, or could even be Montgomery. We don’t know yet. This system looks a little like the one that brought up to 8″ of snow to southern Mississippi in December.

[ROLLTIDE]

Morristown hazardous wx outlook:

On saturday night into sunday morning...there is the possibility of
some light snowfall accumulations across much of the area...but
especially across the higher elevations.

[ROLLTIDE]

18Z GFS game is still on for the snow lovers

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From the Bham NWS

Quote:SATURDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG UPPER LOW PASSES OVER ALABAMA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW AND THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A
FEW HOURS OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT
WITH THEIR POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE SO
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. EVEN
IF THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL...CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE COLD AND WINDY. SOME SLOW WARMING EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON.

[ROLLTIDE]

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Louisville ky

Quote:area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
252 pm est thu feb 26 2009

.

.long term (friday night through thursday)...

Friday night and saturday...

A strong upper level closed low will dive southeast across the the
plains and into the lower mississippi valley by saturday afternoon
before traversing across the southeast u.s. Both the gfs and ecmwf
are consistent in the track and strength of the low. Given this
track and a surface low moving across southern tennessee/northern
ms/al/ga and up the east side of the appalachian
mountains...precipitation will be most favorable across south
central kentucky into east central and eastern kentucky. The latest
model runs showing the trend bring more of a split flow situation to north central kentucky and southern indiana where precipitation changes will be lower.


While the ingredients exist for the potential of a snow event...with easterly wind anomalies at 850 mb...plenty of moisture streaming into the region and dynamically enhanced lifting mechanisms in place...model trends will need to be watched closely as slight changes in the track of the low could result in larger changes in precip type and amount. ensemble forecasts also generally agree with
this thinking in their latest runs with best chances for heavier snowfall remaining across middle and eastern tn.

Morristown, TN

Quote:GFS MODEL REVEALS A COLDER VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE ON SUNDAY
(COMPARED TO THE NAM MODEL)...RESULTING IN MAINLY SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THIS DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY CREATE
SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING IN THOSE AREAS WHERE MORE INTENSE PRECIP
DEVELOPS...WILL PLAN TO TREND CLOSER TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BECOME LOCATED UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS UPPER LOW...WHERE
MORE INTENSE PRECIP RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK REASONABLE. WILL TREND
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW.

Mobile, AL WOW

Quote:THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN AROUND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR INLAND COUNTIES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
WE CLEAR THE RAIN OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE 12Z COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW WILL
BE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST AND SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP COULD
FALL OVER OUR NORTHERN-MOST ZONES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT
NOW WE STILL THINK THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE WELL OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THIS WONT BE A PROBLEM WITH GROUND TEMPS STILL WARM ON
THE HEELS OF THE FRONT.

[ROLLTIDE]

TWC just showed a map that had snow all the way down to Mobile, AL