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2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread
01-28-2009, 01:00 PM (This post was last modified: 01-28-2009 01:14 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread
Models are hiting at a low forming in the GOM and bringing snow to the deep south from LA to NC. This will be a thread where you can post the lastest models and stay updated on the latest changes. I need your help keeping it updated . THanks


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01-28-2009, 01:01 PM
Post: #2
2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread
Still in play

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_120.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_126.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_132.shtml

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01-28-2009, 01:02 PM
Post: #3
2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread
12z GGEM


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01-28-2009, 01:04 PM
Post: #4
2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread
Guess it's time to talk about the Monday storm even the Nashville, NWS is excited about it

Quote:THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS LEADS TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF
COAST...WHICH TRACKS EAST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY...THEN UP
THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THIS TRACK VERIFY...WE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR AND SEE MOSTLY SNOW. THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER JET IS IMPRESSIVE FOR GOOD LIFT...AND THE GFS SUGGESTS
THE 700 MB LOW WILL CLOSE OFF JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST...PUTTING US IN
A FAVORABLE AREA FOR SNOW BANDING.
[Image: gfs_p24_144l.gif]

From the BMX office
Quote:
Quote:LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NOW WE HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE 00Z GFS, EURO AND CANADIAN ARE SHOWING A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. AN INTERESTING PATTERN TO SAY THE LEASTBUT IT IS STILL DAY 6. FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

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01-28-2009, 01:07 PM
Post: #5
2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread
Alabamawx.com update

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01-28-2009, 01:27 PM
Post: #6
2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread
So we might get more snow in QC?

I'll be keeping my eyes peeled!!!

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01-28-2009, 02:06 PM
Post: #7
2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread
ROLLTIDE Wrote:Still looking good for Monday/ Tuesday


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_120.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_126.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_132.shtml

So what are our chances of getting some of the winter precip action next week? I know we already got our 7 year snow, but I can always do with a little more. As of now it looks like our temps are going to be a little to warm for the frozen stuff.
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01-28-2009, 03:23 PM
Post: #8
2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread
from the HPC:
THE UPPER TROF WILL
CONTINUE AMPLIFYING INTO LOWER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/MS VLY BY
MON....SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MS DELTA. THIS SYS
WILL TAP COPIOUS MOISTURE FROM THE GLFMEX AS IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN

AND TREK NORTHEASTWARD. THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD SUPPORT
AN APPALACHIAN/EASTERN GREAT LAKES SNOWSTORM

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01-28-2009, 03:24 PM (This post was last modified: 01-28-2009 03:47 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #9
2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread
Tallahassee AFD is interesting.....

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
TO DETERMINE ANY CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP MON NIGHT. MODELS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT (AND ESPECIALLY GFS) THAT AIRMASS AT 00Z
TUES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIP ESPECIALLY FOR SE ALA.
MODELS APPEAR TO PLACE CWA IN COOL SECTOR RELATIVE TO LOW. HOWEVER
BASED ON LOCAL OFFICE STUDIES...SURFACE LOW SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR
NORTH FOR IDEAL WINTRY SETUP AND 850 TO 700 MB AND 1000 TO 850 MB
PARTIAL THICKNESS PLACE BEST CHC FOR NON-LIQUID PRECIP JUST OUR NW.
AT THIS POINT (AND SO FAR OUT) WILL HIGHLIGHT RAIN...BUT FUTURE RUNS
BEAR WATCHING.

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01-28-2009, 03:37 PM
Post: #10
2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread
I like how I have an inch of snow on the ground and we are talking about another snow bringing in bigger amounts. This is all happening and I live in TN!
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