2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread

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Alabamawx update

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[ROLLTIDE]

Jackson, MS

Quote:.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS AND TEMPS. MODELS REMAIN WET FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT
DRIER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WILL WAIT ON MENTION OF SNOW FOR
MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE
CWA EARLY MONDAY...GENERALLY AFTER 12Z AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO
HATTIESBURG IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRY AIR WAS ALSO MIXING
IN ALOFT...SO THE MOISTURE MAY BE SHALLOW WITH THE COLDER AIR. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A SOME FLURRIES AND EVEN SOME FLAKES REACHING THE
GROUND. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME REMAIN IN THE MID 30S
AT THE SURFACE. MAY ADD A MENTION OF SNOW WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE HWO FOR NOW. MODEL CAME IN DRY A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK...SO BACKED
OFF ANY RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

[ROLLTIDE]

Not looking very good at this time for Nashville

Quote:LONG TERM...
LOOKING AT A FRONT COMING INTO CWA SOMETIME LATE SUN NITE OR MON.
GFS AND UKMET FASTER WITH FRONT AT 12Z MON (NEAR PLATEAU) WHILENAM AND EURO HAVE IT BACK SOME (AROUND CKV). MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRES SYSTEM NORTHERN GULF WILL BE TRACKING NE OVER NORTHERN
GULF..ACROSS FL PANHANDLE AND INTO MID ATLC STATES. THIS IS NORMALLY
A GOOD TRACK FOR US TO HAVE SNOW...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS APPEAR
TO BE TOO WARM INITIALLY AND WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH SNOW UNTIL
MON NITE/TUE ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM. NE 1/2 OF CWA SEEM TO BE
FAVORED AREAS. STAY TUNED.

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Morning update from Accuweather's Henry Margusity:

YEP, YOU HEARD ME, IT'S A BIG DADDY COMING... NOW WE JUST NEED TO NAIL DOWN THE PATH...

Yes, I am excited about the storm next week. Still, I am a little apprehensive on the track given the winter's track record. We have two possible tracks I see this morning. The one track goes up west of the Appalachians, in which case, the Ohio Valley gets hit by a blizzard. The other track is up I-95 in which case the Appalachians get hit by a blizzard.

The other aspect of the storm will be the high winds and flooding. It would appear that heavy rain, warm weather and high winds will be coming north along the coast and that could result in flooding problems for the Northeast, especially New England. Again, it depends on the track of the storm.

Severe weather will occur across the South and snow may fall as far south as Alabama and Mississippi. [url=http://gulfcoastwx.com/index.cgi?board=severe&action=display&thread=3737&page=2#78607][/url]

[GingerStorm]

We now have snow in our forecast for Tuesday

[ROLLTIDE]

Big Daddy video is posted on Accueweather

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs...teomadness

[srainhoutx]

Extended forecast discussion
nws hydrometeorological prediction center camp springs md
230 pm est thu jan 29 2009

valid 12z sun feb 01 2009 - 12z thu feb 05 2009


...final medium range discussion....

A mean upper low will continue to meander around northern alaska
this period. Teleconnections on this feature favor a trough off
the east coast and ridging from the rockies into the western great
lakes. Systems should remain generally progressive within this
flow regime...but slower and with with much higher amplitude than
suggested by teleconnections.

Final progs stayed with the updated prelim 50-50 blend of the
06z/29 gfs amd the 00z/29 ecmwf. Earlier...we had chosen the
06z/29 gfs over the corresponding 00z/29 gfs run because it
trended farther s towards the ecmwf with a sys off the ca coast
next wed/thu days 6-7. This gfs continuity change seemed
reasonable given the high amplitude of the overall large-scale
pattern...and effectively delays the onset of any pcpn from this
sys reaching ca.

Some canadian ensemble members appear to begin to deamplify the
pattern too quickly days 6-7 and we are sticking with higher
amplitude gfs and ecmwf ensemble members at this time. New 12z
deterministic models are staying with the high amplitude game plan
at least thru wed day 6...altho the 12z gfs is beginning to trend
a bit more progressive by thu day 7.

the big headline for this medium range period continues to be the
strong cyclogenesis that should ignite somewhere vcnty of the ms
delta early mon day 4....then deepen on its ne trek from that
point. We have above average confidence in our forecast manual
position for this storm over se pa on tue day 5. the hpc position
is roughly in the center of the envelope of 12z deterministic
model solutions defined on the ern edge by the gfs/canadian...and
on the sw edge by the the ecmwf and ukmet hires. The consensus
track is still near i-95 as far n as nyc...with the 00z/29
gfs/ecmwf ensemble means favoring a bit farther e track. We still
expect heavy rains along the track of the low thru the coastal
plain and moderate to heavy snows to the left of the track in the
appalachians.all but far interior new eng should be moslty rain.
Marginal instability could support convection early tue over ern
nc and the srn delmarva peninsula thanks to a strong low level jet
and vigorous upper dynamics.


flood

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12z CMC paints light snow or flurries from SW LA all the way to Pensacola.

Hour 120...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html

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Jackson, MS just added snow in there forecast pretty far to the South

Quote:THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL
PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR ABOUT THE EAST HALF OF MISSISSIPPI WHEN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. A POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY AND SPREAD A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS COLD AIR SO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

[ROLLTIDE]

12Z EURO implying 10-14 inches for Nashville, at least according to the interpretation of someone who has access to that paid model run.

Top 3 snowstorms on the record books in Nashville:

1 17.0" March 17, 1892
2 15.0" February 20-21, 1929
3 10.2" December 31, 1963-January 1, 1964