2/2/09-02/04/09 Winter Storm thread

[ROLLTIDE]

Http://www.alabamawx.com

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/BlfxG4m1SWs&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/BlfxG4m1SWs&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

[ROLLTIDE]

Jackson:

ALL GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT STORM
SET-UP FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY SHOW QUICK
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN AS STRONG ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO
ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. A DEVELOPING GULF COAST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TREK EWD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES
STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION WITH 1.5 PVU AIR DESCENDING TO BELOW
700MB EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN RAPID CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR EAST.
AFTER RAINY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ARKLAMISS...THE MONDAY/MON NIGHT PERIOD COULD BE VERY CHILLY WITH
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SCENARIO. RAISED POPS SOME FOR
MONDAY AND TWEAKED TUESDAY TEMPS DOWN AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION MAY DEVELOP. BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM...EXPECT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

Birmingham:

NEXT FORECAST HEADACHE BECOMES THE GULF LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THAT
LOW HAS SHOWN UP IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR AT LEAST THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS. HAVING SAID THAT...THE EXACT "FLAVOR" OF GULF LOW
VARIES GREATLY BETWEEN THE MODELS...AND (AS WOULD BE EXPECTED) AMONG
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO GET SUCKED INTO THE
CURRENT (12Z) GFS SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO MULTIPLE
INCHES OF SNOW FOR SOME PLACE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. BUT I
THINK IT IS NOW PRUDENT TO AT LEAST MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...AS WELL AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
AND MORE PHASED SYSTEM THAN IT PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED). SO...LIKE MY
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH...I WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR SNOW TYPE WORDING
FOR (ROUGHLY) THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE CAN ADJUST AS
NEEDED AS THE MODELS (HOPEFULLY) START TO LOCK INTO A MORE DEFINITE
SOLUTION.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

from Henry Margusity's afternoon blog

Quote:I like a track that goes from New Orleans to Charlotte by Tuesday morning and Boston by Tuesday night. That path would mean blizzard conditions with a foot of snow from northern Georgia to Roanoke to Binghamton to Burlington, Vt. Winds would gusts 30-50 mph with heavy snow on the western flank, which is why it might be a storm that is 75% of the strength of the '93 blizzard. On the eastern side, coastal areas will be battered by high wave action and winds up to 40 mph and some zone between the rain along the coast and the blizzard along the front range of the Appalachians there would be a snow and ice event that would change over to a wind-blown snow on the backside.

This is a much different storm from what have seen all winter. It's a storm that is the product of the pattern change that is underway. I mentioned to the younger forecasters that typically when you are stuck in a pattern, it takes a big storm to readjust things and this might be the storm that is able to readjust the pattern.

Lastly, on the track. While I like the track I just mentioned, I think the spread is as far west as Atlanta to State College to Rochester, N.Y., and as far east as off the coast at Charleston to just east of Long Island to east of Boston. On that track, the major I-95 cities will get the blizzard. On the western track, Nashville to Dayton to Cleveland will get the blizzard.

[ROLLTIDE]

Slackuweathers snow fall maps

[srainhoutx]

Been a while since posting on HC, but guidance shows a potential for a 1993 Super Storm Reduex. Models are in an incanny agreement concerning this potential event. The one thing that models will not handle well is the deepening Low in the GOM. Interesting days ahead.

[GingerStorm]

I can't tell where NC is in all this? Will we get anything in Charlotte?

[ROLLTIDE]

[hurricaneguy]

Like the look of that map. If this trend continues do you think East Tenn could get a good amount of snow Roll?

[Joe-Nathan]

Looks like Rob over at KATC is getting in the game. From his blog yesterday evening:

After a cloudy, dreary and cold day today, skies are starting to clear with temperatures heading for the mid-upper 30s later tonight. Some in and out cloud cover will be possible through Thursday morning, but I expect lots of sun for Thursday afternoon. Sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures will stay with us through Saturday with highs mostly in the mid-upper 50s Thursday and Friday and lower 60s for Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the mid-30s possibly dropping into the lower 30s through Saturday morning with the best chance of a freeze and/or frost coming Saturday morning as reinforcing cold air moves in during the day Friday. The bottom line through this weekend is that the tender vegetation and pets will need warm places to stay and just as it tries to warm-up this weekend another shot of colder air and chances of additional light freezes will be possible next week. It’s starting to look a little more interesting for late Sunday into Monday as a more dynamic weather system should allow for increased clouds and eventually high rain chances by Sunday night. Will it will be milder for Sunday but models are indicating a pretty cold shot of air to follow this system Monday with lingering moisture and cold enough conditions aloft for a wintry mix as this system begins to move away late Monday. Highs Monday may be confined to the upper 30s to lower 40s so Ground Hog’s Day could be a challenging forecast! Temperatures in the upper 20s for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be possible following the Sunday/Monday weather system.

You gotta love a weather man that has the balls to call for a chance of winter precip in South Louisiana five days out. Of course Rob is all we got here in the Lafayette area. You can not trust those young ones over at the other Lafayette station.