Ice storm 1/26/09-1/28/09 ok/ark/uk/tn

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Ending as Snow ?

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ICE STORM warning now for NW ARKANSAS

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Special weather statement
national weather service nashville tn
311 pm cst sun jan 25 2009

tnz005>011-022>031-033-034-261000-
stewart-montgomery-robertson-sumner-macon-clay-pickett-benton-
houston-humphreys-dickson-cheatham-davidson-wilson-trousdale-
smith-jackson-overton-fentress-
including the cities of...dover...clarksville...springfield...
Gallatin...lafayette...celina...byrdstown...camden...erin...
Waverly...dickson...ashland city...kingston springs...nashville...
Lebanon...mount juliet...hartsville...carthage...gainesboro...
Livingston...jamestown...allardt
311 pm cst sun jan 25 2009

...freezing rain possible across northern middle tennessee monday
night and tuesday morning...

Cold air will remain in place across northern middle tennessee
monday night as a low level trough drops southward into the mid
state. Rain is expected to develop across middle tennessee monday
evening, and change over to freezing rain north of interstate 40
after midnight as temperatures drop below freezing. The wintry
precipitation will continue into tuesday morning, although all
temperatures are expected to rise above freezing by tuesday
afternoon.

it is possible that some areas near the kentucky border will see
ice amounts of a quarter inch or greater monday night and tuesday
morning. Stay tuned to the national weather service for later
statements on this potential winter weather storm.$$

rose

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Lack of precip will not be the issue this time ::applause::
Thunderstorms are even possible

Quote:..ERN OK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THE EWD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK EXIT REGION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO OH VALLEY WILL SERVE
TO MAINTAIN A SWLY LLJ FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS. ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX
WILL OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...EXTENDING TO THE N OF A PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENT FROM NRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF WEAK ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /BASED ABOVE 850 MB/ N OF SURFACE FRONT WITH
MUCAPE AOB 300-500 J/KG. THIS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH THE
FOCUSED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION /WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS/
PRIMARILY AFTER 27/03-06Z.

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Winter Storm Likely Monday Night Through Wednesday

...A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from late Monday night through Wednesday morning...
A winter storm will impact the region Monday night through Wednesday. At this time, significant snow and ice accumulations look likely across south-central Indiana and all of central Kentucky.
Monday Night into Tuesday morning:
South-central Indiana/North-central Kentucky/Bluegrass: Mainly snow will sleet mixing in at times. Accumulations of 3-6 inches on average with locally higher amounts.
South-central Kentucky: Mainly a sleet and freezing rain mixture. Ice accumulations of around 0.25".

Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning:
South-central Indiana/North-central Kentucky/Bluegrass: Mainly sleet and freezing rain with snow mixing in at times. Ice accumulations of around 0.25".
South-central Kentucky: Mainly rain with freezing rain and sleet mixing in towards Wednesday morning. Little to no ice accumulation.

Although there is increasing confidence in this winter storm, any slight change in the track will impact precipitation type and amounts

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Don't you wish you were in Tulsa j/k

Quote:PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 400 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2009/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SLEET / FREEZING RAIN / RAIN SITUATION
STARTING TO SHAPE UP. CURRENT SUB FREEZING TEMP
ALIGNED WITH I-44. VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHOWS WELL ESPECIALLY AROUND H850 LEVEL PARKED
DIRECTLY OVER FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STAGING IN EAST TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY &
RAPIDLY BLOSSOM INTO PRECIP. A MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WAS USED TO DERIVE PRECIP TYPE. I-44 AND PLACES
NORTH EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PRIMARILY
A RAIN EVENT IN PUSHMATAHA CHOCTAW AND SOUTHERN
LEFLORE COUNTIES. MIXED BAG OF ZR/IP BETWEEN. A
CONSENSUS OF QPF TEMP MAKES NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
MOST VULNERABLE AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO AN ICE
STORM WARNING THERE. CONFIDENCE RATHER HIGH THAT
MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH ICE WILL ACCUMULATE WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF MORE THAN 1 INCH. ELSEWHERE THE
WINTER STORM WATCH WAS CONTINUED.

MONDAY NIGHT THE THREAT OF THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE PRECIP SHIELD COULD RESULT IN MAJOR PROBLEMS
WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE TULSA EXPERIMENTAL 10%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE YIELDS ICE TOTALS BETTER
THAN 2.0 INCHES IN EASTERN MADISON COUNTY ARKANSAS.
POWERLINES DON'T RESPOND WELL TO THAT LEVEL OF ICE.
GW

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Quote
Short Term Forecast

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
828 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

TNZ005>010-023>033-057-059-062>065-260500-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-
OVERTON-HICKMAN-WILLIAMSON-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...
ASHLAND CITY...KINGSTON SPRINGS...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...CENTERVILLE...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...MURFREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA
828 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

.NOW...
AN AREA OF SLEET WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 MPH AND
BE NEAR LIVINGSTON IN OVERTON COUNTY BY 1100 PM. AREAS WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL OF RECIEVING SLEET WILL BE ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.
$$

[WKUman]

OHX is saying that I have the possibility of .2" of ice while due north of me into KY (15 minute drive) they have the chance at .25"-.75" of ice accumulation. Not good...