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January Arctic outbreak 2009
12-29-2008, 05:29 PM
Post: #1
January Arctic outbreak 2009
There is expected to be some FRIGID air pooling over Alaska. Notice this extended forecast for Fairbanks, Alaska:


Quote
.NEW YEARS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 40 BELOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 55 BELOW.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 45 BELOW.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 55 BELOW.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 45 BELOW.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 55 BELOW.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 45 BELOW.

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12-29-2008, 05:33 PM
Post: #2
January Arctic outbreak 2009
Joe B is saying that it is going to be just like 1985. I don't remember January 85. What was it like ?

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12-29-2008, 05:37 PM
Post: #3
January Arctic outbreak 2009
Still voodo land but check out the 384 hr GFS

[Image: gfs_ten_384m.gif]


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12-29-2008, 05:55 PM
Post: #4
January Arctic outbreak 2009
It was 13 degrees and below for five straight days in New Orleans in 1985. It was the week before Christmas, and no one in town had water because of frozen broken pipes. If you were lucky enough to have not had your pipes break, there wasn't enough water pressure to get water out of your faucet anyway. It was a lot of fun - I can't wait!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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12-29-2008, 06:07 PM
Post: #5
January Arctic outbreak 2009
ROLLTIDE Wrote:Joe B is saying that it is going to be just like 1985. I don't remember January 85. What was it like ?


The biggest snow event for San Antonio occurred January 11-13th, 1985. Officially it was 13.5 inches.
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12-29-2008, 06:31 PM
Post: #6
January Arctic outbreak 2009
18Z GFS
5 degrees in JACKSON

18 in New Orleans.

15 in Baton Rouge


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/..._Loop.html

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12-29-2008, 07:56 PM
Post: #7
January Arctic outbreak 2009
The Galaston-Louisiana snow was preceded by record Siberian lows

-55 degrees

Centigrade

Fairbanks is inland and just south of the Presidential range - my recollection is it gets the same kinds of temperatures as Siberia

I found a NOAA site that reported siberian weather stations but lost the URL

:pirate:

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12-29-2008, 08:12 PM
Post: #8
January Arctic outbreak 2009
satx_pilot Wrote:The biggest snow event for San Antonio occurred January 11-13th, 1985. Officially it was 13.5 inches.

Satx you mentioned sunspots back in November or December

This is an interesting year - Sunspots
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1006184638.htm

and

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...1111230341.htm


Moon came up with something that linked to the Marshall flight center here http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

#########################

[FONT=sans-serif, Arial, Helvetica, Geneva]The Sunspot Cycle [/FONT]
[FONT=sans-serif, Arial, Helvetica, Geneva](Updated 2008/11/10) [/FONT]
[Image: ssn_recent2.gif]
Click on image for larger version.
Sunspot Numbers

In 1610, shortly after viewing the sun with his new telescope, Galileo Galilei made the first European observations of Sunspots. Daily observations were started at the Zurich Observatory in 1749 and with the addition of other observatories continuous observations were obtained starting in 1849. The sunspot number is calculated by first counting the number of sunspot groups and then the number of individual sunspots.
The "sunspot number" is then given by the sum of the number of individual sunspots and ten times the number of groups. Since most sunspot groups have, on average, about ten spots, this formula for counting sunspots gives reliable numbers even when the observing conditions are less than ideal and small spots are hard to see. Monthly averages (updated monthly) of the sunspot numbers (25 kb GIF image), (30 kb pdf-file), (62 kb text file) show that the number of sunspots visible on the sun waxes and wanes with an approximate 11-year cycle.
(Note: there are actually at least two "official" sunspot numbers reported. The International Sunspot Number is compiled by the Sunspot Index Data Center in Belgium. The NOAA sunspot number is compiled by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The numbers tabulated in spot_num.txt are the monthly averages (SSN) and standard deviation (DEV) derived from the International Sunspot Numbers)
The Maunder Minimum

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715 (38 kb JPEG image). Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research.
The Butterfly Diagram

[Image: bfly_recent.gif]
Click on image for larger version.
Detailed observations of sunspots have been obtained by the Royal Greenwich Observatory since 1874. These observations include information on the sizes and positions of sunspots as well as their numbers. These data show that sunspots do not appear at random over the surface of the sun but are concentrated in two latitude bands on either side of the equator. A butterfly diagram (142 kb GIF image) (184 kb pdf-file) (updated monthly) showing the positions of the spots for each rotation of the sun since May 1874 shows that these bands first form at mid-latitudes, widen, and then move toward the equator as each cycle progresses.
The Greenwich Sunspot Data

The Royal Greenwich Observatory data has been appended with data obtained by the US Air Force Solar Optical Observing Network since 1977. This newer data has been reformatted to conform to the older Greenwich data and both are available in a local directory of ASCII files. Each file contains records for a given year with individual records providing information on the daily observations of active regions.
Sunspot Cycle Predictions

[Image: ssn_predict.gif]
Click on image for larger version.
MSFC Solar Physics Branch members Wilson, Hathaway, and Reichmann have studied the sunspot record for characteristic behavior that might help in predicting future sunspot activity. Our current predictions of solar activity for the next few years can be found at this link. Although sunspots themselves produce only minor effects on solar emissions, the magnetic activity that accompanies the sunspots can produce dramatic changes in the ultraviolet and soft x-ray emission levels. These changes over the solar cycle have important consequences for the Earth's upper atmosphere.
[FONT=sans-serif, Arial, Helvetica, Geneva]Web Links [/FONT][FONT=sans-serif, Arial, Helvetica, Geneva]NOAA's Space Environment Center - Current Space Weather Conditions Updated Every 5-minutes [/FONT][FONT=sans-serif, Arial, Helvetica, Geneva]SpaceWeather.com - Space Weather Homepage Updated Daily [/FONT][FONT=sans-serif, Arial, Helvetica, Geneva]SolarStorms.org - Learn More About Space Weather and Solar Storms [/FONT][FONT=sans-serif, Arial, Helvetica, Geneva]National Space Weather Program - The U.S. Government and Space Weather [/FONT]
[Image: progress.gif]

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12-29-2008, 08:21 PM
Post: #9
January Arctic outbreak 2009
satx_pilot Wrote:The biggest snow event for San Antonio occurred January 11-13th, 1985. Officially it was 13.5 inches.

I thought I remembered 14" ...

What was 1983 like??? thought I remembered '83 being a 1 in 25 years cold winter ...saw 7 below absolute air temp between Galveston & Dickinson Jan 1 '83


Sunspots!!! - there are some coming back but the numbers have been really low plus 200 days without any

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12-29-2008, 10:23 PM
Post: #10
January Arctic outbreak 2009
frediii Wrote:I thought I remembered 14" ...

What was 1983 like??? thought I remembered '83 being a 1 in 25 years cold winter ...saw 7 below absolute air temp between Galveston & Dickinson Jan 1 '83


Sunspots!!! - there are some coming back but the numbers have been really low plus 200 days without any

Everybody remembers 1983 because we had a really bad freeze that year (at the coast, it was a Trout killing freeze), but the year of the snowfall was 1985. I did not live in San Antonio at the time Sad I lived at the coast where all we got was a cold rain and ice. One of my neighbors shot this video back in 1985:

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/bbM-dr_WfNg&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/bbM-dr_WfNg&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
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