January Arctic outbreak 2009

[ROLLTIDE]

Quote:WWUS42 KGSP 191706
WSWGSP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1206 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE UP THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
MAINLY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL DRAW MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF...WHILE BRINGING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AND GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 IN NORTH
CAROLINA.

NCZ057-070>072-082-SCZ009-013-014-200000-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0002.090119T2300Z-090120T1700Z/
/O.EXB.KGSP.WS.W.0002.090119T2300Z-090120T1700Z/
ROWAN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALISBURY...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...ROCK HILL...UNION...CHESTER
1206 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST TUESDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE WINTER
STORM WATCH THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN...OR A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX. HOWEVER...A QUICK TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2-5 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY
THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THIS HEAVIER
SNOWFALL WILL AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM UNION IN
SOUTH CAROLINA...TO GASTONIA...TO SALISBURY...INCLUDING ALL OF THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-501-503-505-200000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090121T0000Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN
1206 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TOMORROW...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY TUESDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS SNOW SHOULD FALL IN AREAS NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER...A PERIOD OF HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON
ELEVATION AND EXPOSURE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES IN LOCATIONS FROM ROBBINSVILLE...TO WAYNESVILLE...TO
WEAVERVILLE...TO SPRUCE PINE. MEANWHILE...AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS FROM
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES...TO THE LOWER FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-019-200000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WW.Y.0007.090119T2300Z-090120T1700Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...GREENWOOD
1206 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 12 PM EST TUESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 12 PM EST TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT
CAUSING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THE SNOW
ENDS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

NCZ035>037-056-064-065-068-069-502-504-506>510-SCZ003-006>008-012-
200000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.A.0002.090119T2300Z-090120T1700Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-LAURENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...LENOIR...
MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...LAURENS
1206 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS TEMPERATURES FALL...RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW. PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW.
RIGHT NOW...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-26 IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EAST OF I-85 IN NORTH
CAROLINA. HOWEVER...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN AREAS FROM LAURENS...TO GREENVILLE AND SPARTANBURG...TO
SHELBY...TO HICKORY AND STATESVILLE. HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER THE BREVARD AND HENDERSONVILLE AREAS TONIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

[ROLLTIDE]

Lightning is really increasing off the FL panhandle . Somebody in the Carolinas is going to get 8+ inches

[ROLLTIDE]

Update from Huntsville AFD:

UPDATE...TO DELAY ONSET OF -SN TO AFT 09Z OTHERWISE FCST LOOKING ON TRACK. DISCUSSION -SN AREA HAS SHIFTED SE OF NRN AL...BUT A DECK OF ST/SC CONTINUES TO HUG OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM SEWANEE TN TO DESOTO SP IN AL. ROADWAYS IN NERN AL AND FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS WILL LIKELY CONTEND WITH BLACK ICE PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO REFREEZING. WILL ADDRESS THIS CONTINUED THREAT IN THE UPDATED HWO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY FILLING THE NARROW WINDOW OF CLEARING ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. SFC DRY ADVECTION HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE L-M TEENS...WHILE MIXING AND RETURN OF CLOUDS IS MITIGATING WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A RAPID TEMP DROP. 8H ANALYSIS DOES SHOW MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH -8C AT KBMX TO -13C AT KOHX. THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR AT THIS PRESSURE LEVEL WAS -16 AT WILMINGTON OH (KILN) AND PITTSBURGH PA (KPIT). AT 5H...A STRONGLY SHEARED VORTICITY RIBBON STRETCHED FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER AL...WITH OTHER MAXIMA OVER SE MO AND SE IA WHICH WAS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO. UPSTREAM RAOBS AT LINCOLN IL (KILX) AND DAVENPORT IA (KDVN) INDICATE A RATHER MOIST...ALTHOUGH NOT SATURATED...COLUMN FROM 750-800 MB UPWARD DEEP INTO THE FAVORABLE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH LAYER. NEPHANALYSIS INDICATES A BAND OF SN ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ON THE E SIDE OF THE VORT CENTER. ANOTHER BAND OF -SN WAS OVER CENTRAL IA WAS ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS SHEARED VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AND PIVOT SSEWD RAPIDLY TONIGHT...DIPPING THRU MS/AL TUE MORNING. THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN THE A 7-5H DEFORMATION FIELD NOW OVER IL...WITH A SIMILAR FORECAST SOUNDING AS SEEN CURRENTLY UPSTREAM. I SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST THINKING ON -SN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE MODELS ARE LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING AREAL QPF...ALTHOUGH AMTS MAY BE IN LINE GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS. MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT A FLUFFY TYPE OF SNOW WILL BE FALLING BASED ON THE EXPECTED THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WAS FOR TIMING...WHICH LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO 12Z. THUS...HAVE REMOVED POP/WX THRU 09Z...BUT MAINTAINED IT FROM 09-12Z. AT LEAST SOME POCKETS OF -SN ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE/ICE GROWTH PROFILE. THE DRY LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS FROM BEING TOO SIGNIFICANT...HOWEVER...TOP DOWN MOISTENING CAN OCCUR RATHER ABRUPTLY GIVEN FAVORABLE UPWARD ASCENT.

[Squirrelmonkey]

SO VERY COLD!!!! brrrrrrrrr