January Arctic outbreak 2009

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First AFD of the afternoon from Birmingham:

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT EXITS
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND
FRONT IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE
EVEN LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SO...NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN WITH
THIS ONE EITHER. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT LOOKS TO BE MUCH
COLDER THAN THE FIRST FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL
BELOW NORMAL STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

ONE LITTLE TIDBIT...TUESDAY LOOKS VERY INTERESTING. COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THE 12Z
GFS SOUNDING SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HMMM....SNOW POSSIBLY? WE ALL KNOW HOW IT
GOES...TOO EARLY TO TELL. SO NOT GETTING MY HOPES UP YET.
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SURE.


Huntsville, AL

A QUICK REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE
UPPER TROUGHING REALLY SHARPENS BY MONDAY. AS THE AXIS OF THAT
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE THERE SO ANY
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT.

AFTER THAT...IT JUST LOOKS PLAIN COLD AGAIN. HIGHS FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN IN THE
30S. NOT WILLING TO GO QUITE THAT LOW THIS FAR OUT...BUT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S SEEM REASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE HIGH. ACTUALLY...IF
THE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS ADVERTISED...SEEING 40 DEGREES WOULD
PROBABLY BE REALLY TOUGH...AS THE MODELS ARE BREAKING OFF HUGE
CHUNKS OF THE COLD AIR WAY UP NORTH AND SENDING THEM OUR WAY.


Shreveport, LA

HEADING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...A BACK-DOOR FRONT BRINGS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED ATTM...SO THIS SHOULD BE A DRY FROPA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND KEEPS THE REMAINDER
OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS IS TRENDING MUCH COLDER THAN THE EURO IN THE
EXTENDED...WITH SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC HIGHS TRICKLING DOWN THE
CENTRAL US. THIS PACKAGE IS SORT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT PANS OUT.


New Orleans

COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BE CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THE GFS SOLUTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THAT OF THE
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OF THE EASTERN U.S.

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12 Z Euro Front 1



12Z Euro Front 2

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Almost time to Rock and Roll

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Jackson,MS

Quote:THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING WITH THE CENTER
OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER OUR REGION
BUT...VERY COLD AIR ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COULD MAKE FOR A RATHER
CHILLY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS DO
AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS OUR CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY PLAY
A MAJOR ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT LOWER 20S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE EURO AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER QUICK HITTING
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOME PRECIPITATION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR WINTRY POTENTIAL

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Euro still shows a 1055mb arctic high down to the US

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00z Euro Snow Totals: Weak low in the gulf that bombs out off the coast of NC.
6-8″ in N/Central Alabama and maybe higher depending on rain/snow changeover.
8-12″ in N/Central Georgia and maybe higher depending on rain/snow changeover.
10-12″ in Interior SC
12-18″ in across NC (Raleigh and Richmond possibly up to 24″ in some spots)

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the gfs may be breaking the longwave ridge down too quickly by
days 6-7 resulting in it bringing the core of positive hgt
anomalies in the crest of the ridge farther newd into canada
compared to the gefs mean d+8 or previous gfs-based means. The
corresponding ecmwf runs bring the core of positive anomalies
farther nwd to the alaska panhandle by d+8. If the ecmwf scenario
were to occur...teleconnections support the ecmwf/ecmwf ensemble
mean idea of possible wwd/swwd elongation of the mean trof late in
the period.

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12Z GFS





Then a snow cane

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ICE STORM #1