January Arctic outbreak 2009
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01-07-2009, 05:18 PM
Post: #31
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January Arctic outbreak 2009
First AFD of the afternoon from Birmingham:
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT EXITS ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND FRONT IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE EVEN LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SO...NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN WITH THIS ONE EITHER. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT LOOKS TO BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ONE LITTLE TIDBIT...TUESDAY LOOKS VERY INTERESTING. COLD AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THE 12Z GFS SOUNDING SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HMMM....SNOW POSSIBLY? WE ALL KNOW HOW IT GOES...TOO EARLY TO TELL. SO NOT GETTING MY HOPES UP YET. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SURE. Huntsville, AL A QUICK REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE UPPER TROUGHING REALLY SHARPENS BY MONDAY. AS THE AXIS OF THAT TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE THERE SO ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT. AFTER THAT...IT JUST LOOKS PLAIN COLD AGAIN. HIGHS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK ARE LIKELY TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN IN THE 30S. NOT WILLING TO GO QUITE THAT LOW THIS FAR OUT...BUT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SEEM REASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE HIGH. ACTUALLY...IF THE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS ADVERTISED...SEEING 40 DEGREES WOULD PROBABLY BE REALLY TOUGH...AS THE MODELS ARE BREAKING OFF HUGE CHUNKS OF THE COLD AIR WAY UP NORTH AND SENDING THEM OUR WAY. Shreveport, LA HEADING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...A BACK-DOOR FRONT BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED ATTM...SO THIS SHOULD BE A DRY FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND KEEPS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS TRENDING MUCH COLDER THAN THE EURO IN THE EXTENDED...WITH SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC HIGHS TRICKLING DOWN THE CENTRAL US. THIS PACKAGE IS SORT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT PANS OUT. New Orleans COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE GFS SOLUTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OF THE EASTERN U.S. Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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01-07-2009, 05:40 PM
Post: #32
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January Arctic outbreak 2009
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01-07-2009, 07:47 PM
Post: #33
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January Arctic outbreak 2009
12 Z Euro Front 1
![]() 12Z Euro Front 2 ![]() Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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01-08-2009, 08:13 AM
Post: #34
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January Arctic outbreak 2009
Almost time to Rock and Roll
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01-08-2009, 09:38 AM
Post: #35
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January Arctic outbreak 2009
Jackson,MS
Quote:THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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01-08-2009, 09:40 AM
Post: #36
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January Arctic outbreak 2009
Euro still shows a 1055mb arctic high down to the US
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01-08-2009, 09:45 AM
Post: #37
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January Arctic outbreak 2009
00z Euro Snow Totals: Weak low in the gulf that bombs out off the coast of NC.
6-8″ in N/Central Alabama and maybe higher depending on rain/snow changeover. 8-12″ in N/Central Georgia and maybe higher depending on rain/snow changeover. 10-12″ in Interior SC 12-18″ in across NC (Raleigh and Richmond possibly up to 24″ in some spots) Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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01-08-2009, 10:09 AM
Post: #38
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January Arctic outbreak 2009
the gfs may be breaking the longwave ridge down too quickly by
days 6-7 resulting in it bringing the core of positive hgt anomalies in the crest of the ridge farther newd into canada compared to the gefs mean d+8 or previous gfs-based means. The corresponding ecmwf runs bring the core of positive anomalies farther nwd to the alaska panhandle by d+8. If the ecmwf scenario were to occur...teleconnections support the ecmwf/ecmwf ensemble mean idea of possible wwd/swwd elongation of the mean trof late in the period. Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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01-08-2009, 12:05 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2009 12:08 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #39
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January Arctic outbreak 2009
12Z GFS
![]() Then a snow cane ![]() Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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01-08-2009, 12:09 PM
Post: #40
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January Arctic outbreak 2009
ICE STORM #1
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